A Christian Lebanon today

As I stated earlier if France has a major base in the country. Syria won't annex it otherwise yes.
Sorry, I thought this was part of the premise or something along these lines at least. As mentioned in the thread, a Christian Lebanon formed in the interwar years will not want to be part of Syria and will petition for French protection. In this case, Britain surely would not oppose a small French client state in the Levant, especially if its Christian and also pro-West and pro-Israel.
 
Maybe have them mainly get Christian Palestinian refugees? There are a lot of Christian groups in the Middle East, though they are not necessarily the closest of neighbors. Anyone know the specifics of what sort of Muslims are in Lebanon and nearby in Syria? A lot of maps just categorize groups as Shia and Sunni. I am wondering how things would work if there was an independent Druze state, similar in borders to the one during the French Mandate. Wouldn't make Lebanon Christian, but I fear the state were divided there would be another group to take a portion that would not necessarily go for a solely Sunni to Shia outlook. Not that people really used that. We are going to need to dig deep into Arab Natoinalism, and see what groups would see themselves as a bit more Phoenician. Hypothetically one could just stuff Lebanon with the Christians of neighboring countries, but that would make it a primarily religious state, using the somewhat divergent (though not incompatible where the main issues of faith come to) groups. I also don't see Arab countries deporting or driving out secularist groups that had founding roles in many Arab Natoinalist organizations. I expect some would even want to keep them around to point to their own national heritage (saying how Copts clearly showed how the population of Egypt was the same after two thousand years due to the Franks and Arabs clearly not bringing those groups with them when invading) and connecting to ancient civilizations.
 
So you believe the only reason Syria didn't conquer and annex Lebanon IOTL is because of the almost plurality Muslim population?
I never said. The reasons way Syria didn't annex Lebanon because Lebanon in otl compared to this tl has viable borders and most importantly not surround entirely by Syria and is useful as a buffer state between Syria and Israel.
 
I never said. The reasons way Syria didn't annex Lebanon because Lebanon in otl compared to this tl has viable borders and most importantly not surround entirely by Syria and is useful as a buffer state between Syria and Israel.

One reason why Syria is so interested in Lebanon is that it is wealthy. However, Lebanon is a trading country, it needs trade routes and the only trade routes it has is into Syria. I doubt Israel would be interested in Lebanon trade much. That means that Lebanon needs Syria.
 

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It would probably be annexed by France, since it wouldn't be able to resist Syrian expansion on it's own, and the Christian government would rather be a part of France than Syria.

Aslo regarding demographics. In 1913 the population of the Lebanon Mutassarifate was almost 80% Christian, but more important it was 58% Maronite, in other words the Maronites could for some time have dominated the territory without opposition (which to them was important, because although the Ottomans had assigned Christian leaders to the area before WW1, they had never been Maronites). The reason more land was considered important by both the French and the Maronites was because Lebanon had suffered from a great famine during WW1 and wasn't doing well economically, said famine may have halved the population of the province (the actual numbers are sketchy).
 
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I never said. The reasons way Syria didn't annex Lebanon because Lebanon in otl compared to this tl has viable borders and most importantly not surround entirely by Syria and is useful as a buffer state between Syria and Israel.

The reason that Syria didn't annex Lebanon OTL is because the West made it clear they had no problem stepping in to stop it in the 50s - and also, Syria had its own problems for most of the 50s and 60s. And then, after the Civil War, Lebanon was controlled and occupied by Syria for 15 years until the Cedar Revolution. There was no formal annexation because Syria knew that Israel and the rest of the West wouldn't stand for it.
 
[QUOTE="yourworstnightmare, post: 17651949, member: 4082"The reason more land was considered important by both the French and the Maronites was because Lebanon had suffered from a great famine during WW1 and wasn't doing well economically, said famine may have halved the population of the province (the actual numbers are sketchy).[/QUOTE]

So are you saying that a Christain Lebanon with a smaller population is not possible?
 

yourworstnightmare

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[QUOTE="yourworstnightmare, post: 17651949, member: 4082"The reason more land was considered important by both the French and the Maronites was because Lebanon had suffered from a great famine during WW1 and wasn't doing well economically, said famine may have halved the population of the province (the actual numbers are sketchy).

So are you saying that a Christain Lebanon with a smaller population is not possible?[/QUOTE]
I say it's hard because of pressure from Syria and the WW1 era famine. I think Lebanon would end up a part of France (since the Maronites would take France over Syria any day) if it was not enlarged.

Also: what would the status of Beirut be? it was not part of pre-enlarged Lebanon. A Syrian enclave? Or would only Beirut be annexed (this would influence demographics too).
 
I say it's hard because of pressure from Syria and the WW1 era famine. I think Lebanon would end up a part of France (since the Maronites would take France over Syria any day) if it was not enlarged.

Direct rule by France is possible. I wonder if France would be willing to take responsibility for an area that is largely surrounded by Syria and dependant on Syria for its economy.


Also: what would the status of Beirut be? it was not part of pre-enlarged Lebanon. A Syrian enclave? Or would only Beirut be annexed (this would influence demographics too).

Whatever city the Maronites decided to make its capital, I am sure it would have grown greatly.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Direct rule by France is possible. I wonder if France would be willing to take responsibility for an area that is largely surrounded by Syria and dependant on Syria for its economy.




Whatever city the Maronites decided to make its capital, I am sure it would have grown greatly.
Yeah, but Beirut was not Maronite. There would be reason to leave it outside. But then you have a Syrian city surrounded by Lebanon.
 
Option 1: no Israel. No Israel means no Palestinian refugees thus keeping the Christian majority and preventing a Civil War.

Option 2: Migration is halted. Christian migration post-1943 is halted only for Christians.
 
A smaller Mount Lebanon state including Beirut might well lack the nascent Muslim majority that doomed the original conception of Lebanon over the course of the 20th century, but I wonder what cracks would appear in this timeline. What of splits between Maronites and non-Maronites, or regional divides? How will this Lebanon be affected by events elsewhere in the Arab world, with pan-Arabism likely to be unpopular but with Palestinian refugees likely to come in? How is Lebanon going to balance its status as a Levantine Christian homeland with it being an entrepot for the wider Middle East?
 
Option 1: no Israel. No Israel means no Palestinian refugees thus keeping the Christian majority and preventing a Civil War.

No Israel delays things a bit, but doesn't "solve" the problem. Already before the Palestinians came, it was clear that high birthrates among Muslims and higher emigration rates among Christians was destroying the narrow majority, and that there was a lot of agitation (including among non-Maronite Christians) to join Syria.
 
Could Lebanon have population transfers with Syria and Iraq, Christians to Lebanon and Muslims to Syria and Iraq? Idk if the French would attempt that though.
 
Could Lebanon have population transfers with Syria and Iraq, Christians to Lebanon and Muslims to Syria and Iraq? Idk if the French would attempt that though.

A Sunni Islam state in Syria would make it uncomfortable for Syrian Christians who would if they left, be tempted to go move in a Christian Lebanon.

and Muslims to Syria and Iraq?

Any attempt to drive Muslims out of Lebanon would cause problems with Syria probably cause a civil war too.

Idk if the French would attempt that though.

They had no reason while they were there to do this.
 
The Christians left Lebanon mostly because of the civil war and the Palestinians. Without as many Muslims and Palestinians, there wouldn’t be a big push factor to leave and no civil war or even civil unrest. If Lebanon left out the most eastern and south eastern areas and created a law that said if your parents were not Lebanese you couldn’t live in Lebanon even if you were born there. We might not see such problems as in the OTL. What might end up happening is a weird Israel type situation, the Arab Nationalists aren’t going to be happy with a Christian majority nation in the Middle East and will try to use the Druze or the Muslims in the eastern and southern parts of Beqqa valley especially the villages around Baalbek to try and cause trouble and reasons to invade. Tyre, Beriut and Tripoli can all be turned majority Christian pretty easily if the French give in to the Maronites and create more ethinic borders. Today local authorities in Christian Lebanese villages are pretty harsh on the keeping of their local majorities in their respective villages. That would probably be the situation in this Lebanon but at a nation-state scale. We might even see a Israel type situation develop with Lebanon fighting desperately to hold on to its ethnic sovereignty and becoming extremely western aligned. Syria will obviously try to invade but with a unified Maronite Lebanon and a government and military that is not de facto divided between Muslims and Christians, they will probably be bogged down even more than IOTL. Overall, we may not see a much different world just another Israel (Albight not as rich or technologically advanced) in the Middle East except Christian.
 
Hypothetically, if all of the Lebanese refugees went back to Lebanon today, Lebanon would become majority Christian.
 
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