A Christian Lebanon today

Lebanon, created in 1920 under the French mandate. It had a slight Christian majority certainly much of the leadership was Christian. At times it did well. What made it quite unique is that it had an Arab culture but it was not a Muslim state.

Now let us say that Lebanon did not expand into Greater Lebanon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Lebanon

and was formed essentially as the Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Lebanon_Mutasarrifate

This starts off as solidly Christian, what happens to the rest of Greater Lebanon does it becomes part of Syria?

Do you think a Christian Lebanon would survive today? If so what sort of a state would it be?
 

jocay

Banned
This smaller yet vastly more Christian Lebanon would become a much easier target for annexation by Syria or it pleads to France for annexation to avoid annexation by Syria.
 
It's not going to be annexed by Syria while the French are in control given they set the state up, nor is it going to happen during WW2 and immediately afterwards.

By the time Syria is independent enough to do it I think it will become part of the Cold War game and likely on the Western side, so won't be annexed by a Pro-Soviet Syria without serious opposition from the west which would likely make such an attempt fail.

Will it align with Israel when Israel proves to a power to be reckoned with by the 60s?
 
I think you'd need a few things to make this work:

  1. Give them at least Beirut. It's too small to be a city-state and keeping it part of Syria is asking for invasion. Plus they could really use a sophisticated urban center to tie the room together.
  2. Have Syria be a place that's not inclined to invade. This could be because they're not the kind of country that threatens its neighbors, or it could be because this Lebanon has a strong protector.
  3. Have a national identity develop in Lebanon that doesn't seek irredentism for the nearby Christians not within their borders.
The first point is specific and pretty easy (since it's all just the French drawing lines on a map still). The second one is vague enough and has so many possible solutions that it's not really an obstacle to at least starting and exploring a viable scenario.

The third point requires something specific, and you'd need to have someone well-versed in the Maronite culture of the day. You could either find a reasonable actor from among the OTL powers-that-could-be, or you could invent one with the butterfly effect, if you knew the values and cultural levers that the population might respond to to get them to be content with their borders.

You could also have a much less stable situation where everyone provokes everyone else but great powers hold them back. That's a dynamic that certainly exists elsewhere in the Middle East.

But assuming you accomplish 1/2/3, I think you'd have a pretty successful modern state. It might remain a bit of a backwater for a while, but it could develop successfully the way other small states have developed. Tourism, a little specialized agriculture, and eventually the financial sector. An entire country, probably aligned with the West, that produces fluent Arabic/French speakers (later perhaps English as well if that's still happening, as seems likely) seems like a country that would have a lot of appeal. A sort of middle ground where the two cultures can meet on more equal footing. And transfer just gobs and gobs of money.
 
I disagree with everyone saying that such a state would be more likely to get annexed by Syria. If anything, it's less likely. Though this state would be smaller, there wouldn't be a large Muslim population agitating for unification with Syria ("like it should be") instead of staying in some independent, European-imposed Christian colonial state. Li'l Lebanon would basically be a French protectorate, sure, but I think it would be fine - especially because it would almost certainly be wealthier per capita than OTL Lebanon.

Have a national identity develop in Lebanon that doesn't seek irredentism for the nearby Christians not within their borders.

The Maronites wouldn't be irredentist towards non-Maronite Christians, and Maronites outside of the borders would flow in even as the local Muslims were ethnically clea - persuaded to leave. Hell, in the 20s, you could even do that sort of thing with League of Nations approval! The guy who organized the Greek/Turkish population transfer (forced displacement of about 1.5 million people) got a Nobel Peace Prize!

Also, a new national identity emphasizing Phoenician or Crusader heritage and distancing themselves from Arabs could easily develop (indeed, Phoenicianism exists OTL, though in a small way only).

Of course, the thing that upset OTL Lebanese politics might still happen here - Palestinian refugees. This Kleinlibanon might or might not have a border with Israel (I bet it will), but either way it'll be close and might very well get a large population of poor, angry Sunnis.
 
Of course, the thing that upset OTL Lebanese politics might still happen here - Palestinian refugees. This Kleinlibanon might or might not have a border with Israel (I bet it will), but either way it'll be close and might very well get a large population of poor, angry Sunnis.

If we're going with the borders in the Mutasarrifate that should be mostly avoided. They would cross the border into Shia territory, which would be Syria, and those who IOTL ended up in Beirut would probably head towards Damascus instead.

Whether or not the presence of a Christian neighbor to the north would "provoke" Israel to create a common border...I mean I'm not jumping into that minefield!
 
If we're going with the borders in the Mutasarrifate that should be mostly avoided. They would cross the border into Shia territory, which would be Syria, and those who IOTL ended up in Beirut would probably head towards Damascus instead.

The overwhelming Shia presence in what is now Southern Lebanon is relatively recent, historically. Until Hezbollah established a de facto state in the region, there was also a large (mostly Maronite) Christian population in the region. A Christian majority? Probably not. But maybe enough to get the region - including 2 historically important port cities - annexed to our Lebanon.

Regardless, though, having to cross 40 miles of Syria to get there isn't going to stop at least some Palestinians from ending up in Lebanon, especially since they'll probably just sort of be surging up in a disorganized mass. And I doubt that Syria is going to be doing all they can to make sure that no one gets to Lebanon. Also note that OTL, it's not like Palestinian refugees are only located in the parts of Lebanon that were near Israel.
 
The overwhelming Shia presence in what is now Southern Lebanon is relatively recent, historically. Until Hezbollah established a de facto state in the region, there was also a large (mostly Maronite) Christian population in the region. A Christian majority? Probably not. But maybe enough to get the region - including 2 historically important port cities - annexed to our Lebanon.

Regardless, though, having to cross 40 miles of Syria to get there isn't going to stop at least some Palestinians from ending up in Lebanon, especially since they'll probably just sort of be surging up in a disorganized mass. And I doubt that Syria is going to be doing all they can to make sure that no one gets to Lebanon. Also note that OTL, it's not like Palestinian refugees are only located in the parts of Lebanon that were near Israel.

My understanding is the southern Christians were like 5-10%, that the region was historically majority Shi’a until the arrival of the Palestinians, and that before the Israeli advance on Beirut the Palestinians were mostly in that southern area. But my knowledge is limited and I’d appreciate any corrections!
 
By the time Syria is independent enough to do it I think it will become part of the Cold War game and likely on the Western side, so won't be annexed by a Pro-Soviet Syria without serious opposition from the west which would likely make such an attempt fail.
Syria wasn't pro-soviet until 1963. The only way tiny Lebanon stays independent is if France has a base in the country.
 
My understanding is the southern Christians were like 5-10%, that the region was historically majority Shi’a until the arrival of the Palestinians, and that before the Israeli advance on Beirut the Palestinians were mostly in that southern area. But my knowledge is limited and I’d appreciate any corrections!

You made me question what I thought I knew, so I went to the 1893 census (I couldn't find a later one in English)! Sidon kaza (the level one smaller than sanjak) was ~10% Maronite, Tyr almost 20%, Marjayoun (the inland portion of the south) >30% Christian (of whom about 20% were Orthodox and 10% Catholic - neither Sidon nor Tyr had appreciable Orthodox populations). Unfortunately, the census doesn't distinguish between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The census I found (as reported by Kemal H. Karpat,Ottoman Population Records and the Census of 1881/82-1893, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3 (Oct., 1978), pp. 237-274) also unfortunately doesn't go into village-level, but from what I understand, the Christians were concentrated out of the coastal regions and cities, which could allow for e.g. a corridor of Lebanon with Tyr and Sidon cities being Syrian exclaves. Still fewer Christians than I thought, though. My bad.
 
Perhaps a maronite greek orthodox alliance.

Maybe, but compared to the Greek Orthodox, the Maronites are a political monolith. The Greek Orthodox really didn't have a political movement of their own, and instead supported just about everyone from the Phalange to the Greater Syrian groups.
 
Expect France colonial sphere of influence has been restricted to Africa and more importantly is France either under the Control of Nazis or rebuilding from world war 2 and bogged down in Vietnam
- during WW2, Syria and Lebanon was under the control of Free France
- rebuilding from WW2 did not stop France from fighting minor colonial conflicts
- France carried out Operation Musketeer while the Algerian War was happening

Syria will not try to invade Lebanon if France is protecting them, they have no capacity to fight France.
 
- during WW2, Syria and Lebanon was under the control of Free France
They were de-facto independent and Britain opposed French presence in the Levant

- rebuilding from WW2 did not stop France from fighting minor colonial conflicts
Where are they coming in from ?

- France carried out Operation Musketeer while the Algerian War was happening
Which was in 1956 and with British and Israeli Support

Syria will not try to invade Lebanon if France is protecting them, they have no capacity to fight France.
As I stated earlier if France has a major base in the country. Syria won't annex it otherwise yes.
 
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