A China at least as industrialized as Japan by the start of the 20th C

As RousseauX pointed out, corruption is not as big a handicap as it seems when it comes to modernizing. There's also the question on whether some of this might've been mitigated if not under such a weak regime.



Yeah but Zeng had managed to create a stronger alternate center of power that could actually get things done. This is why his "tent government" was able to suppress the rebels while the actual Qing themselves couldn't. In the end, he passed power back to the Qing which only furthered decentralization of power. If he actually went for it and replaced them...well it's not like a general leading a powerful army replacing the weak previous dynasty in unknown in Chinese history...

Furthermore, having a Han Dynasty with a new elite gets rid of some issues specific to being the Qing. No need to rely on ethnic favoritism as one example.

I've heard that Empress Cixi's impediments to reform have been exaggerated. Is this true?



Isn't this what Korea did too?

Privileged foreigners is a crappy issue but it can be worked around. The Ottomans faced the same issue and they managed to make a lot of progress. Probably have to wait until a general European war until the issue can be fully solved though.





One of these things is not like the other...

Scholar, do you think Zheng could have gone for the throne and succeeded?

Darthfanta, I think the problem with the gentry holding too much unofficial power is mitigated when they take actual power. With the cleaning out of the Manchu, Zeng can distribute pork benefits to his supporters. Those same gentry who dislike the government interfering will probably change their tune when they have a chance at more power within the government.



Yes. Thank you! The idea that states don't succeed in "keeping up" because of moral weakness is horribly pernicious even past the 19th century. As is the idea that Japan stagnated for centuries during the Tokugawa Shogunate.
It's one thing for a modernized country to have corruption and another thing for a backwards one to do the same as well.Corruption in the Qing Dynasty was basically endemic.To successfully modernize,China would first need to be able to protect itself from further foreign depredations.You can't really do that if your entire officer corps' full of corrupt thugs who are more than willing to take their soldiers'/sailors' pay,sell their military equipment or embezzle funds for the maintenance and acquisition of new equipment.As shown in the Sino-Japanese War,corruption and nepotism played a large role in the Qing Dynasty's military defeat(whose armies and navies were lead by Zeng Guofan's proteges and associates).You need to have a resemblance of a strong military force if you are to resist further western encroachments.I think what really needs to be done is to have a strong military force that can resist foreign encroachment and to renegotiate some of the 'unequal treaties',especially terms which fixed tariffs for foreigners at ridiculously low rates.

As for the power of Zeng and his associates,after the war,most of the viceroys throughout the empire were either Zeng,his family members,his proteges(e.g. Li Hongzhang) or his associates--who also happened to control the army.
 

scholar

Banned
One of these things is not like the other...

Scholar, do you think Zheng could have gone for the throne and succeeded?
Potentially, but Zeng believed ardently in loyalty to the empire in the time of disunity and despair spreading through China. His own believe was that China itself was sick, and only through restoring the Confucian order could it be saved. In order to make him into a potential emperor figure you need to damage his belief in the idea of the court's legitimacy. Initially the court wanted to give him official rank until they found out he was not a member of the official government, but Zeng did not voice any dissent loud enough for the court to notice, and he accepted Qing recognition while he was winning against the Taiping with a sense of humility that was probably genuine given what we would later know about him. Have the regular army that failed to defeat the Taiping also try to attack the Xiang army, have him officially branded a criminal when Zeng enacted taxes to make the Xiang army possible, and ultimately have some western observers look to Zeng and think he might be a better man to deal with than the idiocy in Beijing. Europeans saw China as a partially civilized state rather than a primitive state, and were inclined to treat it like a Latin American Republic - at least, that's what the British wrote down in their communications. So it is probably easier than we might think to get foreign support to back him since the only reason why Beijing was chosen was because it was the only one who could hold everything together.
 
Potentially, but Zeng believed ardently in loyalty to the empire in the time of disunity and despair spreading through China. His own believe was that China itself was sick, and only through restoring the Confucian order could it be saved. In order to make him into a potential emperor figure you need to damage his belief in the idea of the court's legitimacy. Initially the court wanted to give him official rank until they found out he was not a member of the official government, but Zeng did not voice any dissent loud enough for the court to notice, and he accepted Qing recognition while he was winning against the Taiping with a sense of humility that was probably genuine given what we would later know about him. Have the regular army that failed to defeat the Taiping also try to attack the Xiang army, have him officially branded a criminal when Zeng enacted taxes to make the Xiang army possible, and ultimately have some western observers look to Zeng and think he might be a better man to deal with than the idiocy in Beijing. Europeans saw China as a partially civilized state rather than a primitive state, and were inclined to treat it like a Latin American Republic - at least, that's what the British wrote down in their communications. So it is probably easier than we might think to get foreign support to back him since the only reason why Beijing was chosen was because it was the only one who could hold everything together.
My main problem with Zeng Guofan over is that he doesn't really have long to live.He's pretty old and he might die in around eight years just like OTL or less.Things might be alright if he's alive,but if he's dead,things would be pretty bad.I'm not sure if his son can handle Zeng's associates.There's the added problem that Zeng's associates and proteges aren't exactly men of integrity as I've repeatedly mentioned.That's also assuming that the country just folds over rapidly and abandon the Qing when Zeng makes a move for the throne.
 

scholar

Banned
As for the power of Zeng and his associates,after the war,most of the viceroys throughout the empire were either Zeng,his family members,his proteges(e.g. Li Hongzhang) or his associates--who also happened to control the army.
The proteges had great military influence because the Xiang army of Zeng Guofeng became the standing army of China, but it was not the same as having an independent power base that could rule over China. Zeng himself became highly influential, but his reforms never received the full weight of the Qing court, and the Qing court was weary of him to an extent. To say that it far eclipsed the Qing court is something of a fiction. Militarily this is true, but politically Zeng was not more influential than the princes or Cixi, and part of his faction was destroyed without effort during the 100 Days Reform, which was the first time the court made a powerful move in the direction of modernizing the state. When it came to earlier modernizations, such as the self-strengthening movement, the Qing court was never fully engaged and simply allowed Zeng to do what he could with relatively small resources. Zeng never once had the power to do what he wanted after becoming part of the Qing court, and he could make no demands for more resources and materials that could not easily be dismissed.
 

scholar

Banned
My main problem with Zeng Guofan over is that he doesn't really have long to live.He's pretty old and he might die in around eight years just like OTL or less.Things might be alright if he's alive,but if he's dead,things would be pretty bad.I'm not sure if his son can handle Zeng's associates.There's the added problem that Zeng's associates and proteges aren't exactly men of integrity as I've repeatedly mentioned.That's also assuming that the country just folds over rapidly and abandon the Qing when Zeng makes a move for the throne.
Jize showed a strong competence in realizing China's changing place in the world, so if Jize can hold power, he can certainly prevent China's diplomatic death-spiral. Whether or not he can control his father's associates is another question, but one would presume after becoming emperor, Jize would be in a position to do something about it. He really only needs to do a handful of things to ensure the power of his regime, and the proteges were rather fragile creatures in contrast with imperial power. Cixi killed several of them, and many more fled the country, without much issue. If Zeng could at least hold power in Beijing as capably as Cixi did, then Zeng's clique would not be too great a danger to him or his power.

Zeng's army was primarily responsible to restoring China in the Taiping Rebellion. The rest of China was under different rebellions and imperial power had been dramatically reduced at the time to the northern regions. It is not too much of a problem to assume China would fold after Zeng takes over the Qing. The strongest elements of resistance would be in the northwest, not in China proper.
 
Jize showed a strong competence in realizing China's changing place in the world, so if Jize can hold power, he can certainly prevent China's diplomatic death-spiral. Whether or not he can control his father's associates is another question, but one would presume after becoming emperor, Jize would be in a position to do something about it. He really only needs to do a handful of things to ensure the power of his regime, and the proteges were rather fragile creatures in contrast with imperial power. Cixi killed several of them, and many more fled the country, without much issue. If Zeng could at least hold power in Beijing as capably as Cixi did, then Zeng's clique would not be too great a danger to him or his power.

Zeng's army was primarily responsible to restoring China in the Taiping Rebellion. The rest of China was under different rebellions and imperial power had been dramatically reduced at the time to the northern regions. It is not too much of a problem to assume China would fold after Zeng takes over the Qing. The strongest elements of resistance would be in the northwest, not in China proper.
Problem is that there's a difference between a newly formed dynasty and one that's centuries old,especially when said dynasty was formed via some form of military rebellion.Generally,founders of dynasties have to resolve drastic measures to cement the dynasty's authority.I don't know if Zeng has it in him to cement his son's rule,especially in such a short time,unless his health takes for a better turn.The only good thing is that his son's a fully grown adult,otherwise we will most likely see another Zhao Kuangyin wannabe.

But one final problem,what is stopping Zeng's associates from embezzling money from the army and navy big time like otl?
 

scholar

Banned
Problem is that there's a difference between a newly formed dynasty and one that's centuries old,especially when said dynasty was formed via some form of military rebellion.Generally,founders of dynasties have to resolve drastic measures to cement the dynasty's authority.I don't know if Zeng has it in him to cement his son's rule,especially in such a short time,unless his health takes for a better turn.The only good thing is that his son's a fully grown adult,otherwise we will most likely see another Zhao Kuangyin wannabe.

But one final problem,what is stopping Zeng's associates from embezzling money from the army and navy big time like otl?
Then have Zeng become King or Prince, have him solidify control over the state, and then have his son become Emperor after his death. Its been done a couple of times. As for embezzling money, it remains a problem, but that issue was one thread in a pattern of systemic abuse in the decline of the Qing government. Rather than asking what's to stop it, ask what helped cause it in the first place. A new regime could either make it more likely or less likely depending on how it was formed, and by what process. The more centralized the government becomes, the more likely it is for such abuses to be curtailed or eliminated. Rather than embezzling funds from the military, a cheap way to get around it would be to have the associates become rich from plundering the few Qing loyalists who represent a wrong direction for China (loosely defined by the new dynasty so as to at least redirect the abuse in a direction not harmful to the state's modernization of the military).
 
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