A Central Powers Victory

1. That's a really good point. Early Greek participation would hamper A-H in Serbia. They do have Bulgaria on their side, which will help somewhat. The whole thing will probably be an analogue to Italy's participation IOTL. If this is the case then Russia will still do well in Galicia and A-H participation on the eastern front will be unchanged. However, if France is still defeated, none of it will matter when the Germans come knocking with their entire army (or at least most of it if they send aid to A-H). As for Greek participation at Gallipoli, since the campaign was a miserable failure IOTL, I see it in this timeline being, instead of pushed right back into the sea, degenerated into a fruitless drain on entente resources (especially for the Greeks, who will have fewer men to bear against Austro-Bulgarian forces) while the Ottomans wage guerrilla warfare. It may also save Ottoman resources that were wasted in the debacle of the Caucasus campaigns.

2. Italy could probably be persuaded with a German promise of big French colonies (maybe offering to back Italy up in demands for Tunisia and Algeria) and maybe a monetary award similar to the one given to the Ottomans. Its navy will perform poorly, even with help from the Austro-Hungarian navy, but this (and French troops having to be diverted to Libya) will still mean that entente resources must be expended on them. Germany, via A-H will probably be able to funnel in some supplies. Also, it might not ever get to matter if the French are defeated quickly enough (say, if Italy happens to join just prior to Ypres).

I can't argue much with your points, except, maybe about the Greek participation in the Galipoli campaign:

The Anglo-French force failed (among other reasons) because of 1. faulty maps, 2. Lack of experience in forced landings, 3. lack of experienced troops in modern warfare, 4. delay in order to convince Greece to participate and make up the invasion plans, which gave the Turks and their German advisers time to prepare.

But with Greece participating: 1. Much better maps, 2. Experienced navy and army in landings, 3. Troops with a lot of experience facing machine guns and fortified areas, 4. faster action (troops gathered a lot faster and use of already made invasion plans), hence less time for the Turks to fix their lines and gather ammunition.

Now, concerning the rest, we should check time and numbers:
1. When does Italy and Bulgaria join CP?
2. How many French divisions are required to secure the mountainous borderline with Italy?
3. How many troops does France save in the event of a Macedonian Front maintained mainly by Serbians and Greeks?
4. What effect would the survival of Serbia in 1915 have on the Russian strategy? Is there a possibility to press more through the Carpathians, puting A-H in worse position, leading to larger contribution of Germany in the Eastern Front?
5. What happens with Romania? Would she join Entente earlier? Does she collapse like IOTL, or survives and ties down more A-H troops in Transilvania while diverts some of Bulgaria's attention, even affects the Bulgarian stance if that happens early enough?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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-Italy joins the war on the side of the CP

-The Italian Army, though highly ineffective offensively, ties down enough French troops in the early stages to allow for German victory at Ypres, and the Italian Navy (and its ports that need to be blockaded) ties up enough ships in the Royal Navy to allow a decisive German victory at Jutland.

-Germany takes the channel ports while the French Army collapses into mutiny. The Italians manage to wrest Nice from the chaos.

-The BEF pulls out to save its own skin, the UK makes peace with Germany, followed quickly by rapidly collapsing France.

-Russia is disemboweled by Germany and Austro-Hungary, who doesn't have to deal with Italy in the west. During this stage, the Ottoman Empire launches its offensive in the Caucasus, which is successful due to the German invasion taking up all the forces. Rumania joins the CP. Russia sues for peace after the Germans march into Riga, threatening to break through the last lines around Petrograd.

-The Central Powers are victorious by 1917

-France is made to cede the rest of Alsace to Germany. Germany annexes Luxembourg. Italy is awarded Algeria and French and British Somaliland. The Germans gain Morocco, French and Belgian Congo, Chad, and Senegal. Italy gains Nice and Savoy.

-The Ottoman Empire gains Georgia and Azerbaijan from Russia, Yemen from the UK, and a tiny piece of Persia.

-Bulgaria gains Macedonia, while A-H gets northern Serbia. Rumania annexes Moldova.

-An independent Poland is created with its eastern border restored to its state after the first partition. Finland is also created and it becomes a Kingdom with a German monarch.

-After the war, Austro-Hungary explodes in ethnic chaos. The uprisings are all put down with German and Bulgarian military assistance.

-France becomes the world's first Communist state in 1918, its remaining colonies are given independence. Communists from around Europe emigrate to France, which quickly develops into a democratic worker's state. Communism also skyrockets in popularity in the UK and Russia, which is highly unstable and repressive.

I always have a very hard time seeing the Central Powers getting anything from Britain. Sure they can take stuff from Russia, they were a potential threat to Petrograd and Moscow. Sure they could take Belgian Congo and cripple the French colonial empire, all they need is to march into Brussels and Paris and convince the politicos there to surrender. But I don't see them anywhere near London, and Britain kicked German ass in the colonies. I always consider the peace between Britain and Germany to be more Britain restoring German colonies they occupied during the war.

Italy: for Italy to enter on the CP side Austria must agree to cede Trento and Gorizia. And I have a hard time seeing Austria doing that.
 
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