A Central East

A Central East

Being a tale of an alternative Great War, and the world that follows

As written by LordInsane of AH.com


It is a little known fact that the German war-planners seriously considered a France-first policy before the Great War...

The British Empire's reaction and actions was, as always, crucial...

Poor Belgium, sandwiched between France and Germany, either one or the other seeking advantage over the other through her...
 
The idea behind this TL is simple: what if, in the Great War, Germany had an East First policy from the beginning, and thus the Schlieffen Plan does not go into effect?
And further, what if France attempted to do a Schlieffen-in-reverse, that is, try to bypass Germany's defenses by invading via Belgium?
And what if Italy was convinced to remain loyal to the other Central Powers?
 
Interesting premise, the idea of first Russia after France is interesting and logical, while the United Kingdom remains neutral, the germans could see that in a battle of attrition against France once Russia is knock out, German Empire has good probabilities of winning the match.

Respect to the other premise mentioned by you a french version of Schlieffen, I have far more doubts that in the case of the first premise, first of all France violating the neutrality of Belgium not only could mean Belgium entering in war against them, also could mean surely alienate the United Kingdom feelings towards France and hitting severely the Entente Cordiale signed in 1904, also it seems that the principal obsession of France was recovering Alsace and Lorraine which explain the offensives against Mulhouse and in direction to Strasbourg during august 1914 while in OTL these offensives only obtained a partial and brief sucess in TTL the politic of Russia first could mean for the french the possibility of a real and deep advance in Alsace-Lorraine.

The problem with the premise of french-Schlieffen is that it will be involve too much risks and bad consecuences more than good consecuences.
 
Entirely true, altough they actually had plans for it in OTL.
What I'm doing here, is simply letting the French's bad luck in military decisions prior to the Great War continuing further in the Great War, and after the Elsass-Lothringen Offensive is stopped by the Germans (it makes more gains then OTL, but the Italy in the Central Powers thing makes the French have to put forces Down South, which splits their attention a bit) the French makes a gamble. A bad, stupid one, that is, that quite obviously will have bad effects, but the French intends to cut off the German armies in the West, and occupy the Rhineland before reinforcements can come from the East. In that position, they would be able to make terms to the Germans, at least to degree. That's the plan, at least.
 
Interesting, tho I think the British will just pressure the Belgians to allow the French to pass. The British Government used the violation of Belgium's neutrality as a convenient cover for its decision to support France and sell it to the British public.

I think one may be hard pressed to find another member of the German officer corps who support an East First campaign. Schlieffen and his successor von Moltke were very much tied to hitting France first, tho Schlieffen's last pre-retirement war plan did call for hitting Russia first while withstanding French attacks in the West. Moltke himself halted updating of Russia First warplans in 1912 or 1913.
 
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Interesting, tho I think the British will just pressure the Belgians to allow the French to pass. The British Government used the violation of Belgium's neutrality as a convenient cover for its decision to support France and sell it to the British public.
The British Government wasn't completely united in that, and pressuring other Governments has their disadvantages. Like, for example, the Government being not entirely stable and it being revealed that they tried to do so.
And, of course, that is dependent upon the French telling the British of their plans in the first place. Which, with the war having gone on for some time and the Brits still being outside, they might be a bit too untrusting to do...
 
Originally posted by LordInsane
Entirely true, altough they actually had plans for it in OTL.
What I'm doing here, is simply letting the French's bad luck in military decisions prior to the Great War continuing further in the Great War, and after the Elsass-Lothringen Offensive is stopped by the Germans (it makes more gains then OTL, but the Italy in the Central Powers thing makes the French have to put forces Down South, which splits their attention a bit) the French makes a gamble. A bad, stupid one, that is, that quite obviously will have bad effects, but the French intends to cut off the German armies in the West, and occupy the Rhineland before reinforcements can come from the East. In that position, they would be able to make terms to the Germans, at least to degree. That's the plan, at least.

Seems logical, if you intend that the french made this movement after the failure of their offensive and the great difficulties than in TTL the russians could suffer, it seems plaussible that the french made some kind of desperate movement to avoid a russian colapse.
 
I'm a bit surprised that MrP haven't pointed out any mistakes done be my, yet.
He is, after all, the resident Great War expert.
So, what does he think of this?
 

Susano

Banned
Germany not focusing on France, actually.
Don't worry, it will be a Central Powers victorious timeline, nontheless (this is based on a series of maps I posted in the Map Thread, by the way).

How Freudian of me. Yes, that swhat I meant, as it concentrated on Germany IOTL. Must have been my latent francophobia :D
 
How Freudian of me. Yes, that swhat I meant, as it concentrated on Germany IOTL. Must have been my latent francophobia :D
Oh, Germany will still concentrate on Germany!:D
Ah, don't worry, while I don't hate the French, both my German and my British side tells me not to trust them.;) No partions of France, though.
 
1914, the Black Week and the beginning of the Great War, Part 1.

''The actions of the French and the Germans saved Britain and the Empire from itself...''
- Jonathan Tyrell, British politician, 1978.

The murder of Franz Ferdinand on the 28th of June led to Austria-Hungary presenting an ultimatum to Serbia on the 23d of July.
In a few days, a local Balkan conflict would trigger off the alliance system, Serbia to Russia to France, and back to Austria-Hungaria and Germany, leading to Europe-wide warfare.[1]

The Italians, though wavering in their conviction, and on the brink of delcaring neutrality, were swayed back to the Central Powers with the offer of Gorizia and Istrian border areas.[2]
Germany mobilized, and prepared for fighting a war of defence in the West, and a war of offense in the East, the French prepared to strike against Elsass,[3] the British sought an elusive casus belli to motivate the public, and Europe sled, inexorably, to war, a war that would change the face of Europe, and the world to a degree unexpected by anyone.

[1] All OTL stuff up to that point, as the butterflies of the change of plans for the Germans are not that big, yet.
[2] Here, on the other hand, they are, as in OTL, the Italians declined. Shamelessly stolen from a thread that never produced a TL!
[3] Would we call it Alsace if the Germans never lost it?;)
 
[1] All OTL stuff up to that point, as the butterflies of the change of plans for the Germans are not that big, yet.
[2] Here, on the other hand, they are, as in OTL, the Italians declined. Shamelessly stolen from a thread that never produced a TL!
[3] Would we call it Alsace if the Germans never lost it?;)

Your POD would have to historically be before 1914 since the Germans don't have any plans for operations primarily against Russia any more. It would also have to be before 1914 since Franz-Josef isn't going to be giving any territory away to anybody.
 
Your POD would have to historically be before 1914 since the Germans don't have any plans for operations primarily against Russia any more. It would also have to be before 1914 since Franz-Josef isn't going to be giving any territory away to anybody.
Point one: The POD is before 1914, but telling you that German High Command choose differently back in 1912, and then things doesn't really change until the Black Week is a bit boring, don't you agree?
Point the second: Actually, they did in OTL, only the Italians said no in the end. But what if they didn't? https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=75336
 
Well, the Germans slaughtered the French army moving through Elzas/Lotharringen. If they would be able to tie up the French there for long enough the Germans conceivably could make the Russian effort crumble quite quickly.

1) Will they still bring Lenin to Russia?
2) As the Germans do not cross over to French soil, will the British trigger their pact?
3) Do the Dutch and Belgians ally to ensure neutrality?
(In one of my classes my professor argued that the Dutch were in favor of this and the Belgians were not, untill the Dutch were guaranteed neutrality while the Belgians were not.)
4) In this scenario do we still need a less grand foreign strategy (or stupid) to keep the Brits out of the war, or maybe only backing France?

This one is going to be good, keep it up.
 
Point one: The POD is before 1914, but telling you that German High Command choose differently back in 1912, and then things doesn't really change until the Black Week is a bit boring, don't you agree?
Point the second: Actually, they did in OTL, only the Italians said no in the end. But what if they didn't? https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=75336

1. Not necessarily. There are a few of us that know that PODs are not usually small events.

2. Actually, Grey Wolf mentions that Germany pressured Austria to offer Gorizia and portions of Istria. The POD would be not if Italay accepts, but if Vienna agrees to giving the territory up. I'm not sure that the Austrians seriously entertained Berlin's calls for accommodating Italy. With Conrad advocating a preemptive strike against Italy barely two years before I would doubt he would seriously even listen to Berlin.
 
Well, the Germans slaughtered the French army moving through Elzas/Lotharringen. If they would be able to tie up the French there for long enough the Germans conceivably could make the Russian effort crumble quite quickly.

1) Will they still bring Lenin to Russia?
2) As the Germans do not cross over to French soil, will the British trigger their pact?
3) Do the Dutch and Belgians ally to ensure neutrality?
(In one of my classes my professor argued that the Dutch were in favor of this and the Belgians were not, untill the Dutch were guaranteed neutrality while the Belgians were not.)
4) In this scenario do we still need a less grand foreign strategy (or stupid) to keep the Brits out of the war, or maybe only backing France?

This one is going to be good, keep it up.
1) Depends on the situation. They might do it if the stubborn Russian government, despite having no real army, refuses to surrender.
2) One has to remember that in OTL, the casus belli that motivated the British public was the Invasion of Belgium. In TTL, the Germans doesn't go for the Schlieffen Plan. So the British will be neutral longer, at least.
3) Probably not. Things will change for the Belgians quite soon...
4) The British will be hard to convince to directly enter the war after they see Trench Warfare in all it's glory, and if the British entry is delayed...

And thank you!
 
1. Not necessarily. There are a few of us that know that PODs are not usually small events.

2. Actually, Grey Wolf mentions that Germany pressured Austria to offer Gorizia and portions of Istria. The POD would be not if Italay accepts, but if Vienna agrees to giving the territory up. I'm not sure that the Austrians seriously entertained Berlin's calls for accommodating Italy. With Conrad advocating a preemptive strike against Italy barely two years before I would doubt he would seriously even listen to Berlin.
1. Agreed, I should have made that clearer.
2. Read a bit closer, especially post #35. Grey Wolf seems to think that Vienna accepted...
 
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