A Central East

[Lord Insane]

Youch, poor old Russkies! They're pretty buggered now.

Indeed, they are. Funny how things turned out... too many people with claims against their territory, I guess.
The question is, will the Tsarist government refuse to give up long enough that a revolution (February or October, or some wierd blend) occurs?

 

[birdy]

Are you planning on taking this TL up to 2008?

 

[Lord Insane]

Are you planning on taking this TL up to 2008?

Yes, I am.
That is, if I can keep my motivation for that long. But, I am planning to do just that.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

Indeed, they are. Funny how things turned out... too many people with claims against their territory, I guess.
The question is, will the Tsarist government refuse to give up long enough that a revolution (February or October, or some wierd blend) occurs?

Yeah, once it became fairly clear which way the war was likely to end Russia got dogpiled. That might actually be good for Russia in some ways though; I would imagine the situation might be be bad enough to convince the Tsar to bow out, and if not then if there is a February revolution analogue the new government probably would not be foolish enough to try continuing the war.

 

[Lord Insane]

Yeah, once it became fairly clear which way the war was likely to end Russia got dogpiled. That might actually be good for Russia in some ways though; I would imagine the situation might be be bad enough to convince the Tsar to bow out, and if not then if there is a February revolution analogue the new government probably would not be foolish enough to try continuing the war.

One might also ask oneself just how much the Tsar is willing to give up for peace? Remember, almost everyone but Bulgaria, Italy and Belgium desires Russian land, either as annexations or satellites, so while it might not be as harsh as Brest-Litovsk, it would be quite harsh, nontheless.
Germany can only sell out its allies so much...
Look at it this way: at a minimum, Russia will lose North Sakhalin, Bessarabia, the Ottoman land taken in the last war between them, and a fair portion of OTL Finland. And that is selling out allies (just not all of them), because they had been promised/received hints that they would gain more territory! Add to that German and A-H demands (which there would be some, at least from A-H, who can't gain much from France), and it looks quite unpalatable. So Russia might hesitate just a bit too long...
An ATL February revolution is far more likely to accept a harsh peace then OTL, though.
Of course, one possibility is that the Tsar does accept a harsh peace, and nationalist fervour is then used by revolutionaries to trigger a Feb/Oct revolt. Essentially, the reverse of OTL.
Might be a bit ironic to see Bolheviks making slogans about 'The Tsar sold out Mother Russia and the Workers!'...

 

[stevep]

Future of Russian resistance

Guys

The Russian situation is pretty grim but it might be unwise to count them out totally yet. If the Germans, who are the only opponents who really matter, don't make peace on moderate terms the Russian leadership might think of 1812. Pull back deep into Russia proper and rely on the traditional moral of the population and size and harshness of the country to make any enemy advance very difficult. The Germans won't be as reckless as under Hitler in WWII but they will also lack the motorised equipment and air units that their WWII army had. Also, while there is unrest and discontent in the Russian population it is far less than the loathing of Stalin's Russia in 41. As such I think the vast bulk of the Russian population, faced with a foreign invasion, will, at least in the short term rally to the defence of the motherland. Don't forget that in this war they will not be throwing themselves into offensives but fighting largely defensive actions, which will be easier for them given the nature of their army and the technology of the time. Also while the Germans will have the logistics and organisation to pose a real threat and the Swedes and Japanese will probably have well organised forces the other allied powers could have difficultly sustaining offensives deep into Russian territory. Even in the east, against a pre-occupied Russia, Japan can take most of the Maritime provinces but they will lack the resources to safely advance deep into Siberia.

Not saying that Russia is undefeatable by any means. Its also very isolated. However it has some formidable strengths still if the allies plan the wrong cards and there could be a lot still to this war. They can't win but they can still play a big part in deciding the size of their defeat and not necessarily increasing it by fighting longer. It would be in Russia's interest to make a early peace, if the terms are right, but she still has options if they aren't.

Steve

 

[Codeman]

I dont think the Germans would go on a chase through Russia. I think they would setup a defensive line somewhere in the Russian frontier maybe around Kiev. The Swedes can be relied on to take St. Petersburg I think. Maybe if the Russians dont surrender by 1916 or so they will advance slowly to Moscow.

 

[Lord Insane]

Guys

The Russian situation is pretty grim but it might be unwise to count them out totally yet. If the Germans, who are the only opponents who really matter, don't make peace on moderate terms the Russian leadership might think of 1812. Pull back deep into Russia proper and rely on the traditional moral of the population and size and harshness of the country to make any enemy advance very difficult. The Germans won't be as reckless as under Hitler in WWII but they will also lack the motorised equipment and air units that their WWII army had. Also, while there is unrest and discontent in the Russian population it is far less than the loathing of Stalin's Russia in 41. As such I think the vast bulk of the Russian population, faced with a foreign invasion, will, at least in the short term rally to the defence of the motherland. Don't forget that in this war they will not be throwing themselves into offensives but fighting largely defensive actions, which will be easier for them given the nature of their army and the technology of the time. Also while the Germans will have the logistics and organisation to pose a real threat and the Swedes and Japanese will probably have well organised forces the other allied powers could have difficultly sustaining offensives deep into Russian territory. Even in the east, against a pre-occupied Russia, Japan can take most of the Maritime provinces but they will lack the resources to safely advance deep into Siberia.

Not saying that Russia is undefeatable by any means. Its also very isolated. However it has some formidable strengths still if the allies plan the wrong cards and there could be a lot still to this war. They can't win but they can still play a big part in deciding the size of their defeat and not necessarily increasing it by fighting longer. It would be in Russia's interest to make a early peace, if the terms are right, but she still has options if they aren't.

Steve

Oh, they are not completely out yet.
Though, the Ottomans will be more of a threat to the Russians then in OTL, as, in TTL, Britain isn't involved. The only frontier for them is the Caucasus (well, and naval engagements, but that's another matter) in TTL, so they will be more of a pain-in-the-arse to the Russians then OTL.
Just a minor point (reading this, Abdul?).

 

[Lord Insane]

I dont think the Germans would go on a chase through Russia. I think they would setup a defensive line somewhere in the Russian frontier maybe around Kiev. The Swedes can be relied on to take St. Petersburg I think. Maybe if the Russians dont surrender by 1916 or so they will advance slowly to Moscow.

I think you are overestimating the Swedes. They will be of assistance, though, but I doubt they will be threatening St Petersburg by early 1916. Well, unless the Russians takes almost everything from the Grand Duchy of Finland... Or suffer a complete collapse, or something.

 

[NHBL]

The war at sea...

In discussing the sea war, so far, everyone is focusing on the real warships. But in this timeline, Germany's raiders will have a FAR easier time making it into the Atlantic, since France won't have anything close to the blockade that Britain did. Armed raiders follow The Hague 1907 rules to the letter, interedicting French flagged vessels.

At the same time, the Americans sell cheerfully to both sides, whatever can be paid for. France wouldn't have the resources to do what Britan did to American commerce, and I also can't see the USA being as accepting of French high handedness as it was of Britain's.

For that matter, American goods could flow to Italy and Austria-Hungary also without interference, also, at least in non-contraband materials.

Would France get desperate enough to invoke unrestricted submarine warfare?

I wonder...could France tickle Britian into not allowing British ships to carry war materials to Germany? If so, that makes unrestricted submarine warfare agains neutrals not complying with France's demands not to trade with Germany a bit more tempting.

Home Rule in Ireland...if it does go through, you might see the nationalists actively fighting alongside the British army against the Unionists. They might even negotiate for recognition of their right to continue to exist as an Irish army within the British military establishment.

(Concerning Home Rule...there were a decent number of nationalists that would have accepted a fair Home Rule proposal, so if it looks like Britain is going to make Home Rule stick, many might support it that actually rebelled in 1916 in OTL.)

 

[Lord Insane]

Would France get desperate enough to invoke unrestricted submarine warfare?

I wonder...could France tickle Britian into not allowing British ships to carry war materials to Germany? If so, that makes unrestricted submarine warfare agains neutrals not complying with France's demands not to trade with Germany a bit more tempting.

Home Rule in Ireland...if it does go through, you might see the nationalists actively fighting alongside the British army against the Unionists. They might even negotiate for recognition of their right to continue to exist as an Irish army within the British military establishment.

(Concerning Home Rule...there were a decent number of nationalists that would have accepted a fair Home Rule proposal, so if it looks like Britain is going to make Home Rule stick, many might support it that actually rebelled in 1916 in OTL.)

Ah, the irony of one side doing the thing that the other side did in OTL!

Yes, France might convince Britain of not allowing British ships to carry war materials to Germany (or another member of the Alliance). Even if Britain can't avoid a state becoming continental hegemon, it is within their interest to, within limits, ensure that that state pays through the nose in blood and resources for it.

Actually, Home Rule has already gone through. I've, hmm, not mentioned it further after Ulster Burning, but presumably, the joint British Army/Nationalist forces would have brought Ulster more-or-less under control by now.
And yes, we are looking at a far more pro-British Nationalist camp then OTL. So, I think it would stick, for now, at least. We might see Ireland (including OTL Northern Ireland) becoming a Dominion later on, though (which the Nationalists would probably find even more palatable then Home Rule)...
I doubt the paramilitary forces of the Nationalists would be accepted just like that as an Irish Army (other then unofficially during the Restoration of Law in Ulster), but they might very well form the core of an official Irish Army.

Oh, and good idea about the raiders! I'll think about finding a way to mention that (though even if it isn't mentioned, it might still have occured).

 

[Codeman]

Sweden can concentrate entirely on the Finnish Front as there are no other threats abroad. Germany is defending the Baltic so any Russian amphibious invasion (unlikely but you never know) is impossible. I could see them having St. Petersburg under siege in 1916 as the best possible scenario.

 

[Rockingham]

I dont think the Germans would go on a chase through Russia. I think they would setup a defensive line somewhere in the Russian frontier maybe around Kiev. The Swedes can be relied on to take St. Petersburg I think. Maybe if the Russians dont surrender by 1916 or so they will advance slowly to Moscow.

Sweden can concentrate entirely on the Finnish Front as there are no other threats abroad. Germany is defending the Baltic so any Russian amphibious invasion (unlikely but you never know) is impossible. I could see them having St. Petersburg under siege in 1916 as the best possible scenario.

Ummm, you are talking about Sweden right, not Germans under a Swedish flag??? To put it bluntly, Sweden has abouts as much chance of sieging, let alone taking, St. Petersburg as Japan does Moscow. That is assuming Russia isn't in so harsh a position they can't swat away a small-ish army at the frontiers of their capital. Sure, they could blockade and bombard it, but any attempt to siege it would require either stupidity, total Russian collapse, or a strong assault base in Estonia, in which case it would be the Germans not Swedes.

 

[Lord Insane]

Ummm, you are talking about Sweden right, not Germans under a Swedish flag??? To put it bluntly, Sweden has abouts as much chance of sieging, let alone taking, St. Petersburg as Japan does Moscow. That is assuming Russia isn't in so harsh a position they can't swat away a small-ish army at the frontiers of their capital. Sure, they could blockade and bombard it, but any attempt to siege it would require either stupidity, total Russian collapse, or a strong assault base in Estonia, in which case it would be the Germans not Swedes.

The Swedes could, possibly, assist the Germans in besieging St. Petersburg by 1916.
But, they couldn't do it on their own.
Though I'd say they Sweden have a slightly better chance of doing just that then the Japanese reaching Moscow.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Though I'd say they Sweden have a slightly better chance of doing just that then the Japanese reaching Moscow.

 

[Lord Insane]

Oh, you are reading this TL?

 

[Analytical Engine]

Oh, you are reading this TL?

I am indeed...

I give it: out of 5.

More! More, I say!

 

[Susano]

Youch, poor old Russkies! They're pretty buggered now.

*Plays the Spartans-have-conquered-a-base victory music of SMAC*
Yay!

As for Britain, I think even if neutral they would foremost supply France. It still is where their sympathies lie. And even a desperate France cant be as stupid as to risk provoking GB.

 

[chronos]

The french had detailed plans for the invasion of Germany via belgium. Indeed this was regarded as the only way to do it in modern conditions and Alsace-Lorraine was unsuitable. This was the view of Michel then Joffre.

There was one problem, as Sir Edward Grey explained to Poincaire in a personal meeting, was that it would be unpopular in Britain. This was got around by concealing this intention with claiming that germany would invade france by Belgium although the British undertaking to aid France and secret military conventions were independent of this.

Joffre intended to march through Belgium if British permission had been given by M8. he intended to occupy Luxemburg by M2. Permission was considered to be have been given by Sir Edward Grey when he told Gambon Britain would support France and go to war by France. So they thought permission had been given on M1.

The British government, or rather key people, had decided that in the event of a French violation it would be considered unimportant. If however it was by Germany this would be the basis of intervention.

It is all in the documents. Germany did actually make an offer of British neutrality on the basis of of Belgium neutrality but is was refused. Meanwhile Ludendorf rushed to invade to secure the ket railway junction of Liege.

Of course, if Germany had called Britain's bluff and assembled troops east of the Belgium frontier and intervene when the French went in and had a more sophisticated foreign policy, it would have probably caused Sir Edward Grey to have found his own bluff would have been prevented in Britain. So you would have this timeline, but with French fighting in Belgium.

 

[Codeman]

Ok maybe Sweden could not take or siege St. Petersburg. But maybe we will see them assist in taking it with Germany.