A Central East

[Lord Insane]

A thought on Japan's 21 demands. The main reason Japan leveled them was that England, France and the rest of Europe was wrapped up in war. ITTL Europe minus england gets wrapped up in war but there is still opportunity for Japan to get Chinese consessions with angering England or the US.

Russia holds large territories in Manchuria and is now bogged down in Europe with Germany going with a East first policy. What if Japan tired to get Russian concessions bent to them (like german ones in OTL). Japan remembers a successful war against Russia 9-10 years ago and heres a chance to expand north from Korea and get resources in Manchuria. England had a treaty with Japan and didn't like Russia (India, the Straights etc.) I can see a Nudge, Nudge, Wink, Wink here.

Also there is a chance to pick up some French concessons later after Germany turns on them. Instead of Japan picking up Shantung and German Islands Japan picks up Fiji and some southern Chinese ports. Indochina is too ASBish or a Japan wank

Japan made a ton of money for little effort in OTL. This timeline should be no different but their Katana is just aimed at different zones

Oh, they'll get something out of this war, but Indochina is highly unlikely, yes.
They'll probably look for a casus belli before joining, and also an assurance that Britain won't join on the other side, but I suppose they could make a border incident with Russia, or summat.

Just like to say i like the look of this TL.

Thankee!

 

[stevep]

A thought on Japan's 21 demands. The main reason Japan leveled them was that England, France and the rest of Europe was wrapped up in war. ITTL Europe minus england gets wrapped up in war but there is still opportunity for Japan to get Chinese consessions with angering England or the US.

Russia holds large territories in Manchuria and is now bogged down in Europe with Germany going with a East first policy. What if Japan tired to get Russian concessions bent to them (like german ones in OTL). Japan remembers a successful war against Russia 9-10 years ago and heres a chance to expand north from Korea and get resources in Manchuria. England had a treaty with Japan and didn't like Russia (India, the Straights etc.) I can see a Nudge, Nudge, Wink, Wink here.

Also there is a chance to pick up some French concessons later after Germany turns on them. Instead of Japan picking up Shantung and German Islands Japan picks up Fiji and some southern Chinese ports. Indochina is too ASBish or a Japan wank

Japan made a ton of money for little effort in OTL. This timeline should be no different but their Katana is just aimed at different zones

Snowfire

I agree with most of what you say but a couple of points:
a) I think you will find Fiji is a British colony. Could you be thinking of somewhere like Tahiti? However anything too far out in the Pacific might unset both Britain and the US in terms of potential lines of communications being cut. Anything like New Caledonia would also have the Aussies very upset as well and bending London's ear I suspect.

b) I don't think they will move until their confident who will be winning. Given that Britain still has friendly relations with France, which is very likely on the losing side, and will also be concerned about the balance of power, it might still put what influence it can on keeping the Japanese from attacking important French interests. [Likely to be less concerned about Russian possessions and I think they might well be favourable to the Japanese having Manchuria as a buffer against Russia].

Steve

 

[Snowfire]

Agreed. I diffenately think they would pick up Manchuria. Anything to keep Russia off balance would be ok with Britain and perhaps Germany.

I was wrong on Fiji. Sorry! Tahiti is it. I do think your points are valid and perhaps nothing in the french pacific would switch hands.

I do think the Japanesewould pick up Guangzhou, Kwangchowan, and Shanghai. This would give the Japanese even more incentive to launch attacks into China in the laet 20's and 30's

 

[Smaug]

I like the thread, but I'm curious why the Germans aren't sending out the fleet to run amok. Britain isn't apparently involved yet, but still the German Fleet, quite the expensive display of power, even attempted to influence things in the Med or the Oceans farther east.

JMO, but without having to worry about England, I think the German Fleet would have patiently sortied most of its large ships. Not enough to spook the English, but certainly they would have used a resource that they had invested so much into. If there's not Jutland, or any similar event, wouldn't they use these units?

I'm just saying that I'd like to see how thier used.

I'm also curious about the Med dependencies that Austria gave up and how that affects thier naval power. I'm not familiar with thier Med holdings, but it would seem that Germany mostly, if not completely, seperated them from the Med.

It seems to me that without the RN bought in just yet, these powers might realy do some damage in the Med and the Black Sea.

JMO...

 

[MrP]

I like the thread, but I'm curious why the Germans aren't sending out the fleet to run amok. Britain isn't apparently involved yet, but still the German Fleet, quite the expensive display of power, even attempted to influence things in the Med or the Oceans farther east.

JMO, but without having to worry about England, I think the German Fleet would have patiently sortied most of its large ships. Not enough to spook the English, but certainly they would have used a resource that they had invested so much into. If there's not Jutland, or any similar event, wouldn't they use these units?

I'm just saying that I'd like to see how thier used.

I'm also curious about the Med dependencies that Austria gave up and how that affects thier naval power. I'm not familiar with thier Med holdings, but it would seem that Germany mostly, if not completely, seperated them from the Med.

It seems to me that without the RN bought in just yet, these powers might realy do some damage in the Med and the Black Sea.

JMO...

Thing is, if the HSF is used against the Marine Nationale, then there's no contest. The Germans will wipe the floor with the French. So one needs to keep the German fleet out of things. The easiest way is to say Britain threatens both sides politely.

Incidentally, this'll also allow the concentration of the High Seas Fleet in the Baltic, buggering up the plans of Admiral Essen (Russian Baltic C-in-C).

 

[stevep]

Thing is, if the HSF is used against the Marine Nationale, then there's no contest. The Germans will wipe the floor with the French. So one needs to keep the German fleet out of things. The easiest way is to say Britain threatens both sides politely.

Incidentally, this'll also allow the concentration of the High Seas Fleet in the Baltic, buggering up the plans of Admiral Essen (Russian Baltic C-in-C).

There are some other factors that might apply. For one thing the historical HSF wasn't. It was very much designed for short ranged operations in the North Sea against Britain. This may be different in TTL but possibly not. Not saying German ships couldn't reach places like the Med let alone the Pacific as they did historically. However there's a lot of difference between deployments in peacetime, when they can refuel at sea in quiet harbours, or friendly ports and pick up food and other requirements.

This would be especially important for the destroyers and other light vessels. They had very limited range and, especially with Belgium initially neutral, might have trouble reaching the Channel at anything like operational speed. The Germans would be taking a hell of a risk operating in such confined waters without adequate scouting and escorting units. Especially since any ships damaged would have a long way to travel to reach safety. Furthermore in this TL it might well be that, facing overwhelming enemy naval superiority and uncertain of British support the French might have put some investment into submarines, or failing that mines.

Also, while Britain is neutral it is, at least until the French attack on Belgium, friendly towards the French and concerned about the Germans. As such the Germans need to be concerned that they might have to face the RN. This both means they can ill afford any losses fighting the French and there is the fact that if Britain was to declare war while the HSF was operating in the Channel - Oops!

Furthermore, operating in waters around the British Isles, which is about as far as the Germans could reach presents a lot of problems. In the stormy and often foggy waters there are the dangers of accidental clashes with British or other neutral ships. Furthermore, if the Germans do start sorties into those regions the French have the option to use neutral, especially British MS for their imports. There are rules for blockage in war but the Germans might have problems telling whether a ship in the channel is heading for a British or French port and even more difficult elsewhere. Also, given how congested the Channel gets attempting to run large naval forces through it will give scope for a lot of chaos and disruption, which will upset a lot of people.

For all those reasons I could see the Germans unwilling to risk long probes against French sea lines with the bulk of their fleet, They could try operations by say single BCs, possibly with escorting cruisers, but they might be vulnerable to damage or simply being overwhelmed.


I agree that the situation for the Russians in the Baltic is even worse than historical.

Steve

 

[Lord Insane]

Ach, bugger. I had most of the next part of the TL written- and then the program decided to shut itself down before I had posted.
Quite annoying.

 

[Lord Insane]

1914, The Luxembourgish Connection.

''What if France had not invaded Belgium in the Great War? ''
- Onasus, German poster at Althis.com, 2004.

While France was busy making a reputation as a treaty-breaker state across the Channel, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland was having an election, the Liberal Government gambling that the disarray brought upon the Unionists by the chaos in Ulster would give them victory.
As it turned out, they were right. Though their majority was weak, they were able to sway the remaining Irish Nationalists to remain on their side by the promise of not removing Home Rule in Ulster, no matter what the Unionists would do, and also the fear of the Nationalists that a weak Government would fall too easily, allowing the Unionists to take Westminster. That, obviously, would not be in their interests, so cooperation with the Government it was.

In Africa, a certain General by the name of Paul Von Lettow-Vorbeck was now given his chance to shine, as the entry of Belgium gave access through Congo. He and his forces would be a thorn to French West Africa for the duration of the War.

In Europe, the Belgians’ stiff opposition bought Germany time to reinforce the West. Attempting to strike where the Germans were not expecting it, French forces moved through Luxembourg, cementing their new-fangled reputation as quite untrustworthy in regards to treaties, while still taking little German land. Following their obligations, the Netherlands, who by treaty was bound to protect Luxembourg, declared war on France.
The drive to the Rhine sputtered out and the Rhineland was safe for now.

In the Baltic, the Hochseeflotte, told by Britain to avoid the Channel, was busy smashing the Russian Baltic Fleet into pieces.

The First Great War entered 1915 with the Central Powers holding the advantage, and Sweden, the Ottoman Empire and the Balkan states, Romania in particular, considering their options.

 

[Rockingham]

I think Japan would lean towards the CP. North Sakhalin, Chinese and perhaps Russian Manchuria, French treaty ports in China and maybe Hainan are worth rather more then the German Pacific and German treaty ports. Whats more, Germany may offer the marianas to Japan in exchange for a declaration of war. Their strategy is Russia first after all, the sooner it falls the better.

 

[Lord Insane]

I think Japan would lean towards the CP. North Sakhalin, Chinese and perhaps Russian Manchuria, French treaty ports in China and maybe Hainan are worth rather more then the German Pacific and German treaty ports. Whats more, Germany may offer the marianas to Japan in exchange for a declaration of war. Their strategy is Russia first after all, the sooner it falls the better.

If they join the War, it is more likely that they will join the Central Powers, yes, as the Balance of Power is clearly skewed in their favour.
The question is whether Japan will join the war at all, and if they do, will they join it soon enough to gain much from it?
They would hardly be in a position to demand much if they joined two weeks before the surrender of the last remaining Entente power...

 

[HJ Tulp]

Wow, that makes Asia a whole lot more interesting. What ships do the French and the Germans have? Also, it will also bring war to the Carribean. The Dutch might have the advantage there as the French will probably no have many troops there considering the war has been going on for some time.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

okay I must say I have been following this with great interest...

A couple of queries though perhaps concerning the HSF, since its not going to be deploying for decisive battle against the French but will spend the bulk of its efforts destroying the Russian Baltic Fleet, after that is done though could some of the more long range capital ships be deployed to the colonies to act as commerce raiders against French shipping.

While I think Lettow Voerbeck is likely to be a thorn in the French side its morelikely to be confined to East and Central Africa and not West Africa. Togo will likely still fall but Kamerun and and SWAfrika are probably safe at the start and Fr.Equatorial Afr. is probably in peril. What of Madagascar and Reunion? These are easily better targets for him than West Africa.

Japan is not likely to move at the start but could be drawn in by events once Italy and/or the Ottoman's make their own foray for the DKB. Russian Manchuria and the Fr. Concessions in China assuredly. North Sakhalin which they would have liked after the RJ War and probably could have had if they had played their cards right. The Kuriles in their entirety. The Amur and Coastal provinces would be desirable ( likely to be given back at wars end though in exchange for something else, though it depends on events) Give them relatively worthless Kamchatka in exchange...

Actually if the Japanese act early enough they will have to expend relatively larger resources for their gains if they act against the Russians ITTL. So their gains at Russian expense would be justified. They may occupy Kwanchouwan,but Shanghai and Canton are probably not int he cards. Too many Br/Am. interests I think. Shanghai is international is it not for the most part. Hainan perhaps i am not sure if this is in the Fr. Sphere or not. but perhaps.

Milder demands on China definitely and probably none at all, again it would probably not sit well with the Brits or the Americans. Mind you. Could the Japanese actually work with the Chinese to evict the Fr. and Russian influence in exchange for increased access for itself in the way of trade and Mineral concessions and perhaps its own official terr. concession in say Amoy and Quemoy (99 yr lease say a la the new terr of HK). Marianas, why not...I can see the A-H ambassador sitting down with his German counterpart and saying look..It was your suggestion to make concessions to the Italians...And if Russia is our first priority......enuff said.

 

[Neroon]

Regarding Japan: What about French Indochina? After North Shakalin, that one seems more attractive to me than China. No risk of getting entangled with British or U.S.

 

[Lord Insane]

While I think Lettow Voerbeck is likely to be a thorn in the French side its morelikely to be confined to East and Central Africa and not West Africa. Togo will likely still fall but Kamerun and and SWAfrika are probably safe at the start and Fr.Equatorial Afr. is probably in peril. What of Madagascar and Reunion? These are easily better targets for him than West Africa.

Blast! Forgot about French Equatorial Africa! But, why would he be in East Africa? Britain is not in the war, and France, well, see the next bit...
Attacking Madagascar and Reuniun or Madagascar would probably be beyond what he is capable of. They are islands, after all. Need ships.

Regarding Japan: What about French Indochina? After North Shakalin, that one seems more attractive to me than China. No risk of getting entangled with British or U.S.

French Indochina is not something Japan will gain. That doesn't mean that France will keep it, though.

 

[stevep]

1914, The Luxembourgish Connection.

In the Baltic, the Hochseeflotte, told by Britain to avoid the Channel, was busy smashing the Russian Baltic Fleet into pieces.

This I rather doubt. The Russian Baltic fleet at the time was still suffering from the war with Japan and no match for even a smaller than OTL fleet. As such its secure at Krondstadt. Nicholas II may not have been the brightest spark but he's not going to send it out on a suicide mission.

Could possibly, depending on pre-war butterflies, see the Imperial Russian submarine fleet see action. [Given that they know they will be outclassed in conventional terms I can see the Russians trying this, even if mainly for mine deployment say].

Otherwise looking interesting. At what time in 1914 do the French recover from their losses in A-L enough to try the dash through Belgium? Also what is the neutral, especially British reaction to this?

Steve

 

[Lord Insane]

This I rather doubt. The Russian Baltic fleet at the time was still suffering from the war with Japan and no match for even a smaller than OTL fleet. As such its secure at Krondstadt. Nicholas II may not have been the brightest spark but he's not going to send it out on a suicide mission.

Could possibly, depending on pre-war butterflies, see the Imperial Russian submarine fleet see action. [Given that they know they will be outclassed in conventional terms I can see the Russians trying this, even if mainly for mine deployment say].

Otherwise looking interesting. At what time in 1914 do the French recover from their losses in A-L enough to try the dash through Belgium? Also what is the neutral, especially British reaction to this?

Steve

Trying to provoke the Russians would be more correct.
Recovery by the 13th of November.
Britain feels betrayed (they told France not to do what they just did, after all), and other neutrals are more suspicious of France then before.

 

[Lord Insane]

A bit terse, my above post, but that's because the internet froze while I was pressing the submit reply button (thus removing everything I had written), and lession-time was rapidly approaching, so I had to quickly put something together.

 

[MrP]

There are some other factors that might apply. For one thing the historical HSF wasn't. It was very much designed for short ranged operations in the North Sea against Britain. This may be different in TTL but possibly not. Not saying German ships couldn't reach places like the Med let alone the Pacific as they did historically. However there's a lot of difference between deployments in peacetime, when they can refuel at sea in quiet harbours, or friendly ports and pick up food and other requirements.

This would be especially important for the destroyers and other light vessels. They had very limited range and, especially with Belgium initially neutral, might have trouble reaching the Channel at anything like operational speed. The Germans would be taking a hell of a risk operating in such confined waters without adequate scouting and escorting units. Especially since any ships damaged would have a long way to travel to reach safety. Furthermore in this TL it might well be that, facing overwhelming enemy naval superiority and uncertain of British support the French might have put some investment into submarines, or failing that mines.

Also, while Britain is neutral it is, at least until the French attack on Belgium, friendly towards the French and concerned about the Germans. As such the Germans need to be concerned that they might have to face the RN. This both means they can ill afford any losses fighting the French and there is the fact that if Britain was to declare war while the HSF was operating in the Channel - Oops!

Furthermore, operating in waters around the British Isles, which is about as far as the Germans could reach presents a lot of problems. In the stormy and often foggy waters there are the dangers of accidental clashes with British or other neutral ships. Furthermore, if the Germans do start sorties into those regions the French have the option to use neutral, especially British MS for their imports. There are rules for blockage in war but the Germans might have problems telling whether a ship in the channel is heading for a British or French port and even more difficult elsewhere. Also, given how congested the Channel gets attempting to run large naval forces through it will give scope for a lot of chaos and disruption, which will upset a lot of people.

For all those reasons I could see the Germans unwilling to risk long probes against French sea lines with the bulk of their fleet, They could try operations by say single BCs, possibly with escorting cruisers, but they might be vulnerable to damage or simply being overwhelmed.


I agree that the situation for the Russians in the Baltic is even worse than historical.

Steve

Definitely agree about the problems with business in the Channel. A bit less certain about the range of the HSF. On the one hand they did stick the crews in shore barracks, so I'm not sure how the onboard accommodation compared with RN vessels, but range wasn't too bad for the big uns, at least. Conway gives 6,000 NM at 12kts for the Kaisers and 6,730 NM at 10kts for the contemporary RN Orions.

Nassau / 8,000 NM / 10kts
Helgoland / 1,790 NM / 10kts
Kaiser (see above, though note P. Luitpold is 7,200 NM at 12kts)
Koenig / 6,800 NM / 12kts
Bayern / 5,000 NM / 13kts
V der T / 4,400 NM / 14 kts
Moltke / 4,120 NM / 14 kts
Seydlitz / 4,700 NM / 14 kts
Derfflinger / 5,600 NM / 14kts

RN ships do usually have a greater range on average and in many specific cases (running from about 3,000 for the Invincibles to nearly 8,000 for the Iron Dukes), but I wouldn't put it past the Germans to operate at range given time to plan. Though having reviewed the above, I think the Koenigs are probably a better choice than any of the BCs. I do agree about many of the smaller vessels, though. A range of just 1,000 NM in some cases.

 

[Lord Insane]

1915, Opportunism Will Gain You Many Friends.

''Truly, the Sick Man of Europe has recovered! ''
- Benito Mussolini, 1921.

On the 13th of January, the Ottoman Empire, seeing an opportunity to, at the very least, reclaim Caucasian territory from the Russians at little risk of being defeated, decided to joined the war on the side of the Central Powers. On the 20th, Bulgaria, noting their isolation from the Entente, followed suit, with Romania, seeing a chance to gain Bessarabia by joining the side that was clearly winning, doing so on the 29th.

While the Balkans aligned themselves, the Dutch and German forces in the Pacific was moving against the French, who, lacking the fleet to protect, was mostly unable to stop them. In the Caribbean, a peace of sorts was uphold by the USA’s Monroe Doctrine, and the implicit threat of an entry in the War on the other side, but, having a land border, skirmishes between French and Dutch Guyana was inevitable.

In Sweden, patriotic sentiment was rising, with people seeing a chance to ‘liberate’ the Finnish people from Russia. After gaining assurances from Norway and Denmark that they would not see a Swedish entry as a threat, Sweden declared war on Russia on the 8th of February. [1]

At this point, Russia was in dire straits. With such a wide frontier, any attempt to concentrate forces led to other parts being dangerously weakened. Brusilov, one of their finest generals, had died in a battle with Austro-Hungarian forces towards the end of 1914. To make matters worse, Japan, seeing that Britain was not, after all, going to help the Entente, and being promised the Russian holdings in Manchuria, and North Sakhalin, declared war on Russia on the 16th of February.

With such forces arrayed against Russia, it was no surprise that unrest increased day by day as losses mounted, and supplies dwindled. But the worst was yet to come…

[1] This, is it should be noted, is merely a year after the previous government fell for not being nationalistic enough in keeping the military strong. Add to that a genuine feeling of brotherhood with the Finns (witness the efficiency of the propaganda in OTL’s Winter War), and a propaganda campaign by a government that sees a chance to unite the people, and this becomes less implausible then it sounds. Especially with things going so badly for the Russians.

 

[MrP]

Youch, poor old Russkies! They're pretty buggered now.