A Central East

[Lord Insane]

Interesting developments in China. I'm not sure, however, that Zhang Xun would attempt his coup as late as 1921, or for that matter that he would get the support of Kang Youwei. When they tried it in 1917 in OTL, it was already an anachronistic move; the window of opportunity to restore imperial rule had closed with Yuan Shikai's failed bid for emperorhood the previous year. Imperial restoration had become even more elusive after the May 4 movement in 1919, which finished off Confucianism as China's official state ideology for the rest of the 20th century. IMHO it would be more plausible to have some warlord try to stage a coup, several of them did just that in the course of the 1920s. It would be just as good an excuse for Li to bolt south, that much is plausible--he was rather an opportunist, and not a very brave man (legend has it he only took the leadership of the revolutionary armies after being dragged at gunpoint from under his concubine's bed).


I second Faeelin, I don't see Sun trying to change the regime's name from the Republic of China.

Well, one of the changes that already have occured in China prior to this is that Yuan Shikai never actually got around to making his bid for emperorhood. The May 4th Movement might not have been as strong in TTL, either- the 21 Demands were never issued, and the Treaty of Strassburg was... slightly more in China's favour than OTL's Paris Treaty was. Could that make Zhang and Kang's attempt more plausible?

As for Sun changing his regime's name... that would seem harder to explain, yes. Things didn't descend into quite the warlordness it did in OTL, so the Republic would be associated more with Duan's regime than OTL- in a sense, the warlordness of China before Li's southernly flight might be somewhat more like what it was in the OTL 30s- they all (well, most of them) claim to be loyal supporters of Duan and the Republic, even if the situation is not quite so simple in reality.
Whether that could in turn make Sun attempting to 're-start' the Republic by, eh, re-branding it, so to speak, more plausible...

 

[Hendryk]

Well, one of the changes that already have occured in China prior to this is that Yuan Shikai never actually got around to making his bid for emperorhood. The May 4th Movement might not have been as strong in TTL, either- the 21 Demands were never issued, and the Treaty of Strassburg was... slightly more in China's favour than OTL's Paris Treaty was. Could that make Zhang and Kang's attempt more plausible?

So Yuan remains president and doesn't overreach by proclaiming himself emperor? That does change a few things. And if, one the one hand, the 21 Demands are never issued, and on the other the Treaty of Strasbourg is more favorable to China than the Treaty of Paris was in OTL, there may well be no May 4 movement. In those conditions it does remain possible for an attempt at restoring the Qing to take place as late as 1921, especially if it fails. But would Zhang and Kang have enough of a reason to try it in the first place? In OTL they did because the central government had all but collapsed, but in your TL it looks like Duan has a firmer grip on the apparatus of state.

Anyway, taking your precisions into account, I see no outstanding plausibility issue with the political developments in China. Incidentally, you're aware, aren't you, that without a May 4 movement, China's more radical intellectuals will likely take longer to see Communism as the answer to their country's problems. This may make the early history of Communism in China fairly different from what it was in OTL.

 

[Lord Insane]

So Yuan remains president and doesn't overreach by proclaiming himself emperor? That does change a few things. And if, one the one hand, the 21 Demands are never issued, and on the other the Treaty of Strasbourg is more favorable to China than the Treaty of Paris was in OTL, there may well be no May 4 movement. In those conditions it does remain possible for an attempt at restoring the Qing to take place as late as 1921, especially if it fails. But would Zhang and Kang have enough of a reason to try it in the first place? In OTL they did because the central government had all but collapsed, but in your TL it looks like Duan has a firmer grip on the apparatus of state.

Anyway, taking your precisions into account, I see no outstanding plausibility issue with the political developments in China. Incidentally, you're aware, aren't you, that without a May 4 movement, China's more radical intellectuals will likely take longer to see Communism as the answer to their country's problems. This may make the early history of Communism in China fairly different from what it was in OTL.

Good point... I suppose they could still do it, if they thought that there was a window (Duan out of Beijing for some reason?), but that it would close soon, so they'd have to act quickly if they wanted to do a coup at all... but as you can probably tell, my grasp of Chinese history is not the best.

I had heard of the likely effects of no May 4th Movement on the more radical intellectuals, though I can't seem to remember where I heard it- probably on the Board, somewhere (and if so, I wouldn't be surprised if you had a hand in it).

 

[Lord Insane]

Maybe 1923, if I haven't forgotten something.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Minor suggestion: If the Germans were going to strip the French of their African possessions except Algeria, most likely they would just leave them the coastal strip. A lot of the interior was taken from Morocco in very recent times, and if seems to make sense to give back, or just annex it to German territories. Leaving it French leaves everyone else's possessions in the region insecure.

 

[Peter Hillock]

Don't forget, though, that Russian discontent wasn't just because the war was going badly, but because of the perception that Russia's governing aristocrats and capitalists had botched the war, and discredited themselves, by throwing Russia's ill-prepared army in to attack Germany, really for the benefit of the capitalists and aristocrats of France and Britain. Without that stick to beat the old regime, the communists would probably have been seen as a bunch of traitors.

And without the loss of tons of men and supplies in the failed invasion of East Prussia (August 1914), a German advance would have run into those divisions and guns dug in for defense. Probably with the increased forces that in OTL were attacking France, they would have gotten farther into Russia, somewhat more quickly, but people are too eager to see Russia's 1917 collapse as inevitable.

On the question posed earlier about why the Germans would have wanted any Russian lands, and what they would have done with the hostile native populations: since this was no blitzkrieg, the front moved at a walking pace, and so most of the civilian population was evacuated as the front moved east. One reason why the Germans thought seriously of settling what became western Latvia is that more than half the original population was scattered across Russia as war refugees. Plenty of Lebensraum to hand out as booty to the soldiers to settle and expand the German Kulturraum. Blech.

 

[Lord Insane]

Minor suggestion: If the Germans were going to strip the French of their African possessions except Algeria, most likely they would just leave them the coastal strip. A lot of the interior was taken from Morocco in very recent times, and if seems to make sense to give back, or just annex it to German territories. Leaving it French leaves everyone else's possessions in the region insecure.

Good point. I always seem to forget something...

Don't forget, though, that Russian discontent wasn't just because the war was going badly, but because of the perception that Russia's governing aristocrats and capitalists had botched the war, and discredited themselves, by throwing Russia's ill-prepared army in to attack Germany, really for the benefit of the capitalists and aristocrats of France and Britain. Without that stick to beat the old regime, the communists would probably have been seen as a bunch of traitors.

And without the loss of tons of men and supplies in the failed invasion of East Prussia (August 1914), a German advance would have run into those divisions and guns dug in for defense. Probably with the increased forces that in OTL were attacking France, they would have gotten farther into Russia, somewhat more quickly, but people are too eager to see Russia's 1917 collapse as inevitable.

Remember, though, that it isn't just the additional German forces from the West Front that the Russians have to contend with- with Austria-Hungary's western front more secure, they can put more forces up against the Russians. Sweden's army, while not the most modern or large, is still an additional distraction- more so as it adds another front that wasn't even present in OTL- the Ottoman army can concentrate completely on the threat from the Caucasus, and Japan is yet another Sweden-type distraction. Romania, too, helps with not having to be occupied to get the resources.

 

[bobbis14]

Bump - Keep going

 

[Lord Insane]

Bump - Keep going

Thankee!
Am currently re-writing the next chapter to make it somewhat more realistic. Well, trying to, at least.

 

[bobbis14]

Thankee!
Am currently re-writing the next chapter to make it somewhat more realistic. Well, trying to, at least.

Hopefuly the long awaited Russia chapter, intrested to see how things play out in Russia over the next few years as that could shape Russia (and the world) for the years to come.

Keep going

 

[NSeven]

Excellent timeline! Lordinsane, do you plan for more updates?

P.S. According to the map, why northern Siam is an British territory?

 

[Analytical Engine]

P.S. According to the map, why northern Siam is an British territory?

Sphere of influence, old chap...

 

[Lord Insane]

Excellent timeline! Lordinsane, do you plan for more updates?

Thank you, and yes, there is a plan for that... though rounding it off is giving me problems at the moment.

 

[bobbis14]

Thank you, and yes, there is a plan for that... though rounding it off is giving me problems at the moment.

Do PM me, if you like.

 

[AndreHanover]

Going way back to the original idea (over 11 pages!), a French Schleiffen Plan would be very, very improbable. The Plan XVII revolved around a general offensive toward Mulhouse and Strasbourg. The French would have never gone through Belgium while the fortresses of Metz and Colmar were still threatening them on the German border. The only way this would have worked would be if Britain was already on-board with French plans before any actual French invasion and the Belgians had already been attacked by the Germans. A Franco-British attack on Germany to aid Russia would most likely go through Alsace and Lorraine, both to deny the Germans advance warning by going through Belgium, and so that France would regain her lost territory.
As for Italy, they might have been persuaded only if Germany had been attacked without a declaration of war on Russia before an attack on the Triple Alliance. Italian involvment was also unlikely, based on their almost non-existant support of the Alliance, following the secret deals with France in 1903-1906.

It would be fun to see Russia get beat up on, then the Entente invading the Rhineland to see how the Kaiser would react.

 

[AndreHanover]

From the 1923 map, how is Germany going to hope to control all of those former French colonies? To do so, it would require a much larger navy (Britain is never agreeing to that), and would drain resources from sustaining dominance in Europe. The idea of a German "Mittelafrika" are mostly pipe-dreams, given the state of the naval race between Germany and Britain, and the fact that the Germans would have had great difficulty controlling these areas.

 

[Lord Insane]

Going way back to the original idea (over 11 pages!), a French Schleiffen Plan would be very, very improbable. The Plan XVII revolved around a general offensive toward Mulhouse and Strasbourg. The French would have never gone through Belgium while the fortresses of Metz and Colmar were still threatening them on the German border. The only way this would have worked would be if Britain was already on-board with French plans before any actual French invasion and the Belgians had already been attacked by the Germans. A Franco-British attack on Germany to aid Russia would most likely go through Alsace and Lorraine, both to deny the Germans advance warning by going through Belgium, and so that France would regain her lost territory.
As for Italy, they might have been persuaded only if Germany had been attacked without a declaration of war on Russia before an attack on the Triple Alliance. Italian involvment was also unlikely, based on their almost non-existant support of the Alliance, following the secret deals with France in 1903-1906.

I freely concede that this TL is fairly handwavy at the start, though if I rewrite it, I'd make more clear that France tried to attack into Alsace-Lorraine first, it just didn't go all that well, thus the idea of trying something else. As for Britain, due to miscommunication and confusion on both sides, France thought one thing, Britain thought another...
Italy is, indeed, a problem, although I note that the Alliance's diplomatic position being stronger, what Russia and France declaring war first, and Germany convincing the Habsburgs to concede their offer earlier than in OTL. Still...

From the 1923 map, how is Germany going to hope to control all of those former French colonies? To do so, it would require a much larger navy (Britain is never agreeing to that), and would drain resources from sustaining dominance in Europe. The idea of a German "Mittelafrika" are mostly pipe-dreams, given the state of the naval race between Germany and Britain, and the fact that the Germans would have had great difficulty controlling these areas.

Who says Germany will have much control over the greater portion of that area? As for draining resources from sustaining dominance in Europe... well, this TL is supposed to go up to 'now', whenever that will be when I get that far.
As an aside, this is not ''Mittelafrika''. All-Belgian Congo, if you note.

 

[CCA]

Read from start. Consider me a fan. Please update

 

[Lord Insane]

Read from start. Consider me a fan. Please update

Thanks! I intend to, if only I can break the writer's block I have on the next update (I've had the bulk of the text sitting on my computer for half a year, but the ending eludes me).

 

[abc123]

1914, the Black Week and the beginning of the Great War, Part 1.​

''The actions of the French and the Germans saved Britain and the Empire from itself...''
- Jonathan Tyrell, British politician, 1978.

The murder of Franz Ferdinand on the 28th of June led to Austria-Hungary presenting an ultimatum to Serbia on the 23d of July.
In a few days, a local Balkan conflict would trigger off the alliance system, Serbia to Russia to France, and back to Austria-Hungaria and Germany, leading to Europe-wide warfare.[1]

The Italians, though wavering in their conviction, and on the brink of delcaring neutrality, were swayed back to the Central Powers with the offer of Gorizia and Istrian border areas.[2]
Germany mobilized, and prepared for fighting a war of defence in the West, and a war of offense in the East, the French prepared to strike against Elsass,[3] the British sought an elusive casus belli to motivate the public, and Europe sled, inexorably, to war, a war that would change the face of Europe, and the world to a degree unexpected by anyone.

[1] All OTL stuff up to that point, as the butterflies of the change of plans for the Germans are not that big, yet.
[2] Here, on the other hand, they are, as in OTL, the Italians declined. Shamelessly stolen from a thread that never produced a TL!
[3] Would we call it Alsace if the Germans never lost it?

Franz Joseph would NEVER give Istria and Trieste to Italians.
That's the reason why Italians abandoned Triple Alliance.

Maybe some small teritorial concessions in South Tyrol and Gorica, but I'm not sure about that either.