A Canadian Political WI: Joe Clark wins a majority in 1979.

How would Canadian politics and Canada in general be affected if Joe Clark's PCs won a majority government in the 1979 general election? Would Clark be reelected in the next election, held in 1983 or '84? And what would Trudeau's legacy be had his career ended in defeat in the spring of 1979?
 
Most likely yes. Trudeau would be remembered as a horrible PM, because legislatively he did nothing from 1968 to 1979. All the crap from '80 to '84 (which IMO includes the Constitutional mess, NEP and the Charter) was a desperate attempt to be remembered for something. Otherwise he's just remembered for his longevity rather than one specific thing, rather like his fellow Commonwealth socialist Indira Gandhi.

This also means that the Tories remain Red, not Blue for a while longer. Even Mulroney was unwilling to slash entitlements instead of raising taxes, which is why the deficit ballooned during his tenure IOTL.
 
In that scenario Trudeau would probably be primarily remembered for the October Crisis.

Well, there is also his 1974 post election flip-flop. You know, implementing wage and price controls after both trashing the Tories for floating the idea in the campaign and then explicitly promising that the Trudeau liberals would never do that.

There is also the unsustainable and unnecessary deficit spending. Of course, the last four and a half years of it, along with several of the most idiotic policies have been butterflied by the alternate 1979 election, but most of the mess is already there.

And the biggest positives that he could point IOTL are also butterflied. The (first, and probably only) Quebec referendum most likely still goes ahead, with something close to the OTL result, but Clark gets the credit for saving the country while Trudeau gets to bear the blame for the mess that gave the PQ their opportunity.

It'll be a cold day in Hell before the Tories (even Red Tories) write anything close to Trudeau's Charter. Their version is certainly going to be better, and the country will be better off for it. And if the Tories stay anywhere close to OTL on the issue, Rene Levesque might actually sign on to it, as he and his successors backed Mulroney's (actually largely Clark's) proposals in the late 80's and early '90s. IOTL, Trudeau's last "victory" was to ensure that both of those attempts were shot down, leading directly to the PQ trying referendum #2 in 1995. Here he is sidelined a lot sooner and probably has little or no influence once his successor has settled in as leader of the LPC.
 
His successor is probably Turner as per OTL, given the apparently sacrosanct tradition of alternation. Turner loses in '83, whether they give him another kick at the can as per OTL or Chretien ousts Turner is open to question. The Tories will turn Blue eventually, but not with Clark at the helm. Maybe Lougheed goes into federal politics?
 
His successor is probably Turner as per OTL, given the apparently sacrosanct tradition of alternation. Turner loses in '83, whether they give him another kick at the can as per OTL or Chretien ousts Turner is open to question. The Tories will turn Blue eventually, but not with Clark at the helm. Maybe Lougheed goes into federal politics?

The question is does Clark lose the 1983/4 election? If so, then the next PM is almost certainly Turner. Ditto for the following one should '83/4 be another Tory victory. Two consecutive defeats probably makes Turner the first Liberal leader since Confederation to not become PM.

Which of the two major parties turns to the right is still an open question in the early to mid 1980s. That one of them will eventually have do so is a certainty. Remember, there were and are lots of "Blue Liberals" who will shift the Liberal Party to the centre right or even to right of centre should they get the ability and opportunity to do so.

You could actually end up in the mid-90's with a centrist/possibly slightly left leaning Red Tory type Progressive Conservative Party (Clark, Jean Charest, Kim Campbell) balanced by a centre-right Liberal Party lead by say, ex-mayor of Calgary (two terms from the early '80s until sometime after the 1988 Winter Olympics) and lifelong Liberal Party member Ralph Klein! (Mr. Klein actually was a Liberal right up until he went into provincial politics (in 1989/90), whereupon he joined with the proven winners, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta. The rest is history.)
 
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