A butterflies effect on the Second World War -Timeline

[Rubicon]

As the year 1918 was drawing to a close so did the horrific conflict by man that at that point was called ‘The Great War’. In the Amazons a butterfly flapped it’s wings and flew south instead of north, and the world was never the same.



Author notes: This timeline will explore a timeline with four different Points of divergances because of the above mentioned butterfly. Constructive criticism is more then welcome.

 

[Rubicon]

Point of Divergance 1:

‘The Italian army took great care in investigating it’s own performance in the Great War, the conclusions were several. One was that the army should limit its training of soldiers to primarily fight a second alpine war. Another that the use of so-called Celere divisions, a mixture of cavalry and bicycle mounted Bersaglieri was useful as pursuit troops. A third was that during the coming era of peace, large reductions had to be made in the officer corps, the investigation suggested these cuts be made on the junior officer corps.

But after the Fascists march on Rome in October 1922 this was largely ignored. The Fascists were highly suspicious of the old aristocratic generals whose performance was largely inadequate on the Alpine Front. Shortly after the fascists came to power, the majority of those of general’s rank were so to speak put out on pasture. In plain speak they were forced to retire, and the fascists used the salaries of those generals to retain a majority of the junior officers. As Mussolini argued: “The Generals have largely failed in obtaining glory for Italy, we do not need their services any more. Better to look to our glorious future and the younger generation who shall lead Italy to a said glory.”

In essence the fascists cleaned out the Italian army’s Augean stables. After the forced retirement of, as Mussolini aptly named them, “The useless old guard” the army began further analysis of the doctrines needed to conduct a modern war and what training of the soldiers was needed to perform war according to those doctrines. The old guard had been satisfied with training the army in a limited role in a “second alpine war”. Mussolini and the fascist belief were that such a role was completely against the ideals of the “New Rome” they were striving towards establishing.

A new study conducted by the now invigorated Italian army took a much more careful look upon Germanys last great offensive on the western front in Great War, the Kaiserschlacht. In particular the investigation took notice upon the role of the NCO’s, finding weak points in the enemies lines and the use of light artillery and portable machine guns to support the attack. A small and hardly noticeable addendum was done to further investigate the use and effect of as the Italians called them Carro Armato, to either spearhead these attacks or utilise them as follow-up forces meant to penetrate deep into the interior of the enemy’s lines. Further studies were needed.’

 

[Rubicon]

Point of Divergance 2:


U-26, July 13th 1936, Baltic sea, Ten Nautical miles NE of Kiel, Kapitänleutnant Werner Hartmann in command.

-‘Come to heading one-three-seven.’
-‘Heading one-three-seven, Jawohl herr Kaleun.’
-‘All ahead slow.’
-‘All ahead slow, Jawohl herr Kaleun.’

Peering through the attack periscope, the thirty-three year old kapitänleutnant Werner Hartmann saw the target ship ever so slowly moving into the target reticule of the periscope.

-‘Heading at one-three-seven now herr Kaleun.’
-‘Good Hans, all stop.’
-‘Jawohl herr Kaleun, all stop.’
-‘Set torpedo data. Target speed zero knots. ‘
-‘Target speed at zero knots herr Kaleun.’
-‘Target heading 197 degrees starboard.‘
-‘Target heading set to 197 degrees starboard, herr Kaleun.’
-‘Range to target eight hundred meters.’
-‘Range to target eight hundred meters, herr Kaleun.’
-‘Set torpedo depth two meters’
-‘Setting torpedo depth at two meters, herr Kaleun.
-‘Set torpedo speed 26 knots’
-‘Setting torpedo speed at 26 knots, herr Kaleun
-‘Open torpedo tube one and two.’
-‘Opening torpedo tube one and two, herr Kaleun
-‘Fire tube one.’
-‘Firi…. herr Kaleun? ‘The surprise in Hans voice was almost palpable.
-‘Fire tube one Hans.’
-‘Jawohl herr Kaleun, firing tube one.’
-‘Fire tube two.’
-‘Firing tube two’
-‘Open torpedo tube three and four.’
-‘Opening tube three and four, herr Kaleun may a speak with you.’
-‘Not now Hans, fire tube three.’
-‘Firing tube three.’
-‘Fire tube four’
-‘Jawohl firing tube four. All bow torpedoes are away.’
-‘Good good, time to impact?’
-‘First torpedo impact in six, five four, three seconds, two, one…..minus one, minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five, minus six, minus seven….. second torpedo impact in two seconds, one, zero, minus one, , minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five….. third torpedo impact in two seconds, one, minus one…impact! Fourth torpedo impact in three seconds, two, one…..minus one, minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five, minus six. Torpedo missed herr Kaleun. Three out of four misses’
-‘Not misses Hans, duds, we fired duds. Reload the bow torpedoes.’
-‘Impact herr Kaleun, torpedo impact.’
-‘What?’ Peering through the periscope Hartmann could see the settling of a water sprout some five hundred meters beyond the target ship. ‘Charts! I need charts! The torpedo must have hit a stone or something, what depth did you set the torpedo to Hans?’
-‘Two meters just as ordered, look at the settings yourself. Maybe it hit a wreck or something’
-‘Nothing on the charts, no wreck markings, no shoals no reef, nothing. The baltic may not be deep but we have at least twenty meters between our keel and the bottom.’ ‘Reload the tubes, and let us try this again, maybe it was just a fluke.’

Later that day, office of Führer der Unterseeboote (FdU), Kiel.
-‘ Kapitän zur See Dönitz will see you now gentlemen’
-‘Thank you, time to meet our executioner then Hans’ Werner Hartmann smiled to his first watch officer. ‘Don’t worry, I will take full responsibility for this.’

The 1st WO of U-26 opened the door and kapitänleutnant Hartmann stepped first through the door and walked into the office of the chief of the German U-boats. 1st WO followed through, both men came to attention before the desk. Behind which sat the Commander of the U-boats himself, Kapitän zur See Karl Dönitz, forty-three years old, reading a paper.

-‘So Gentlemen, care to concoct some fanciful story of just why I should not have you both court-martial and drummed out of the navy this very afternoon for stealing a target ship and conducting an unscheduled target exercise? Have you any idea of the costs of torpedoes?’
-‘Herr Kapitän zur See, my report.’ Still at attention Hartmann put his report on the desk in front of Dönitz
-‘I am in no mood for games, kapitänleutnant Hartmann, give me the short version’
-‘ Jawohl herr Kapitän zur See. We fired a total of eight torpedoes at ideal range. Two hits, one premature detonation and one detonation five hundred meters beyond the target.’
-‘Two hits? Were you both drunk? What happened to other four torpedoes?’
-‘Herr Kapitän zur See neither of us were drunk, the crew can easily testify that, what happened to the other four torpedoes we do not know, they never detonated.’

Leafing through the report Dönitz grumbled ‘You are both suspended until further notice and docked one month pay each. I have not decided whether or not to court-martial you yet, dismissed.’
Both men made a salute that was answered, made an about face and marched out of the office.

Dönitz picked up his phone and dialled, a few seconds later he was answered ‘Erich? Dönitz here. Yes fine think you herr Generaladmiral. Listen we may have a situation with our torpedoes. I’d like to conduct an investigation if that is the case.’

 

[Rubicon]

Point of Divergance 3:

Italian light cruiser Duca’Aosta October 30th 1936, 10.37 local time. Eight nautical miles west of Sicily. Captain Alberto da Zara in command.

-‘Lookout reports several ships bearing zero-three-one, 20.000 meters, captain.
-‘Several? A convoy? For what purpose? Never mind, let us take the opportunity to do an unscheduled drill. Call general quarters.’
-‘Aye, aye captain, general quarters’
-‘Let us show our colours. Helm set an intercept course bearing zero-two-five. All ahead full.’
-‘Aye, aye captain, setting course zero-two-five, all ahead full.”

The ten-thousand ton light cruiser turned gracefully to starboard and accelerated from a steady sixteen knots to a more deadly thirty, but still not going full out.

-‘Lookout reports four freighters, all flying Russian colours.’
-‘A communist convoy? Here? Must be on their way back from Spain. Might as well get some training in boarding as well. Order them to stop and prepare for inspection.’
-‘Aye, aye captain, signalling.’ A few flashes of morse-code later. ‘Captain, they refuse to stop and they do not acknowledge our right to conduct inspections, they call us “Pirates”.’
-‘They do, do they? Fire a warning shot across the bow of the lead ship.’
-‘Aye, aye sir, firing.’

The A turret of the cruiser gracefully turned towards the lead Soviet freighter and one of its 152 millimetre guns roared.

-‘Captain, they are complying with orders. They are stopping.’ One of the bridge officers called out
-‘Good prepare your boarding parties.’
-‘Aye, aye Captain.’
-‘Captain! I can pick up several morse signals between the ships.’ a seaman with a Neapolitanian dialect called back.
-‘What are they saying seaman?’
-‘I don’t know, Captain, must be in Russian.’
-‘Write it down, it might be important.’ Turning to the watch officer ‘You take care of what he scribbles down, and make sure one of the navy’s translator get that note.’
-‘Aye aye captain.’
-‘Captain!’ This was the executive officer calling for his attention. ‘Look captain, they are abandoning ship!’

Indeed they were, boats were lowered into the sea from all four ships. ‘Why? Why are they abandoning ship?’ The answer came shortly as one by one the ships began slowly sinking.

-‘Those crazy Russians are scuttling their ships!’ one of the seamen with a Genoveese dialect exclaimed
-‘Prepare to receive these … shipwrecked sailors. But what on earth could make them scuttle their ships at the mere threat of boarding?’
-‘Captain’ it was the ship navigator ‘If you want to you could find out, the sea is only fifty-sixty fathoms deep here.’
-‘Send the following signal to the fleet headquarters: “Intercepted convoy of four soviet ships, stop. All ships scuttled at threat of boarding, stop. Requests deep sea divers to investigate the wrecks, stop.” Then sign it, encode it and send it.’
-‘Aye, aye captain.’

 

[Rubicon]

Point of Divergance 4:

Transcript of interrogation with Colonel Akinosuke Oka. July 17th 1947 in regards to war crimes. Interrogator Major Jonathan Stevens, US Army.

Interrogator: It is July 17th 1946, eight-thirteen in the morning. Let's get this on then. Colonel Oka, last time we were talking about your time in Manchuria.
Oka: Yes.
I: What rank did you hold at that time?
O: I was a captain in the Imperial Japanese army.
I: You were part of a clique that wished war with China in the late thirties?
O: Yes.
I: Why?
O: We wished to expand the Empire, we felt China to be weak and fragile. Ripe for conquest.
I: You hold that opinion no longer?
O: No.
I: What changed?
O: Ah, it was 1936 I think, October, or was it September? No matter. I went to one of the officer meetings in Mukden.
I: These officer meetings, what were they?
O: Mainly political meetings, but sometimes we discussed strategy or women as well.
I: Did you attend these meetings regularly?
O: Yes, fairly so.
I: What happened at this particular meeting that made you change your mind?
O: Not so much what happened, but what was said.
I: Can you describe what was said.
O: First there was mainly political boasts. But after a while the over the top boasting died down, and a discussion of how we should conquer China evolved.
I: Go on.
O: Well everyone said how easy it would be, we would just overrun the pitiful Chinese armies with ease and conquer their cities. Then….
I: Then what?
O: A colonel began to argue about how yes we could easily take the Chinese cities and smash their armies, but that we could not hold the countryside, that the country was to large. ‘Do you no what the problem with China is?’ He asked us ‘The problem with China is that it is full if Chinese’ he told us. At that point there was both some laughter but also screams at him for being a coward, traitor or worse. Some threats as well.
I: Go on.
O: What he said next was almost prophetic, he said that Germany has cast off the shackles of Versaille and is rebuilding its armed forces, for how long would France and England stand by and watch? He also said that in the last war we took the German possessions, why should we not take the French and English in this one, why should we weaken ourselves by being embroiled in one war, when the next great war is nearly upon us.
I: Was the Philippines ever mentioned?
O: Yes. It was actually one of the objections raised against him, that the US forces in the Philippines could cut off our supplies to and from the war zones with the French and the English. That US forces in the Philippines would choke us to death, slowly.
I: Did the Colonel give any solutions to this problem?
O: Yes, he said that America would never involve itself in a colonial war, and that as along as the USA was neutral, the Philippines was of no threat to us.
I: What was the reception of his arguments?
O: Silence. Nothing but silence.
I: Silence?
O: Yes silence, in Japan, silence is the highest form of adulation. Then one of the attendants began to applause and stepped into the light from the shadows.
I: Who was it?
O: General Umezu.
I: General Umezu? I thought you said these political meetings were mainly for junior officers?
O: Yes, even Colonels was frowned upon at these meetings, a general was unheard of.
I: Did Umezu say anything?
O: Yes he addressed us all. He said that we should listen carefully to this mans words, that within this head was a first class thinker. He said that he agreed with the Colonels reasoning and that they were sound. He said we should bide our time and wait, and not get stuck in the quicksand that China could become.
I: Did you listen to Umezu?
O: Yes, the colonels words were wise and the general recognised this, so did we.
I: This colonel, did you know him?
O: Not personally no, only by reputation.
I: Who was he?
O: Your British friends should know him well, or at least know of him.
I: His name?
O: Yamashita!

 

[Rubicon]

BBC News broadcast August 16th 1938, Madrid.
‘The celebrations on the streets of Madrid are magnificent, young women are kissing soldiers of the nationalist army everywhere, old men are throwing their hats in the air. The mood is with one word jubilant. The news that Barcelona, the last republican city left, has surrendered has the population here in Madrid in a festive mood. On the radio the leader of the falangist movement, Francisco Franco, has already made his radio broadcast declaring that victory is near at hand and that all they need to do now is stay the course. French radio is reporting that republican forces are withdrawing, some of them even retreating across the French border. To the population of Madrid, the horrors of the civil war seem to finally be over after a brutal two year long war. The hope is high here for a long and prosperous peace.
Reports from the north are that both the German volunteer Condor Legion and the Italian volunteers are bombing the fleeing republican troops with impunity, casualties are reported to be high.’

 

[The Red]

Point of Divergance 2:


U-26, July 13th 1936, Baltic sea, Ten Nautical miles NE of Kiel, Kapitänleutnant Werner Hartmann in command.

-‘Come to heading one-three-seven.’
-‘Heading one-three-seven, Jawohl herr Kaleun.’
-‘All ahead slow.’
-‘All ahead slow, Jawohl herr Kaleun.’

Peering through the attack periscope, the thirty-three year old kapitänleutnant Werner Hartmann saw the target ship ever so slowly moving into the target reticule of the periscope.

-‘Heading at one-three-seven now herr Kaleun.’
-‘Good Hans, all stop.’
-‘Jawohl herr Kaleun, all stop.’
-‘Set torpedo data. Target speed zero knots. ‘
-‘Target speed at zero knots herr Kaleun.’
-‘Target heading 197 degrees starboard.‘
-‘Target heading set to 197 degrees starboard, herr Kaleun.’
-‘Range to target eight hundred meters.’
-‘Range to target eight hundred meters, herr Kaleun.’
-‘Set torpedo depth two meters’
-‘Setting torpedo depth at two meters, herr Kaleun.
-‘Set torpedo speed 26 knots’
-‘Setting torpedo speed at 26 knots, herr Kaleun
-‘Open torpedo tube one and two.’
-‘Opening torpedo tube one and two, herr Kaleun
-‘Fire tube one.’
-‘Firi…. herr Kaleun? ‘The surprise in Hans voice was almost palpable.
-‘Fire tube one Hans.’
-‘Jawohl herr Kaleun, firing tube one.’
-‘Fire tube two.’
-‘Firing tube two’
-‘Open torpedo tube three and four.’
-‘Opening tube three and four, herr Kaleun may a speak with you.’
-‘Not now Hans, fire tube three.’
-‘Firing tube three.’
-‘Fire tube four’
-‘Jawohl firing tube four. All bow torpedoes are away.’
-‘Good good, time to impact?’
-‘First torpedo impact in six, five four, three seconds, two, one…..minus one, minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five, minus six, minus seven….. second torpedo impact in two seconds, one, zero, minus one, , minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five….. third torpedo impact in two seconds, one, minus one…impact! Fourth torpedo impact in three seconds, two, one…..minus one, minus two, minus three, minus four seconds, minus five, minus six. Torpedo missed herr Kaleun. Three out of four misses’
-‘Not misses Hans, duds, we fired duds. Reload the bow torpedoes.’
-‘Impact herr Kaleun, torpedo impact.’
-‘What?’ Peering through the periscope Hartmann could see the settling of a water sprout some five hundred meters beyond the target ship. ‘Charts! I need charts! The torpedo must have hit a stone or something, what depth did you set the torpedo to Hans?’
-‘Two meters just as ordered, look at the settings yourself. Maybe it hit a wreck or something’
-‘Nothing on the charts, no wreck markings, no shoals no reef, nothing. The baltic may not be deep but we have at least twenty meters between our keel and the bottom.’ ‘Reload the tubes, and let us try this again, maybe it was just a fluke.’

Later that day, office of Führer der Unterseeboote (FdU), Kiel.
-‘ Kapitän zur See Dönitz will see you now gentlemen’
-‘Thank you, time to meet our executioner then Hans’ Werner Hartmann smiled to his first watch officer. ‘Don’t worry, I will take full responsibility for this.’

The 1st WO of U-26 opened the door and kapitänleutnant Hartmann stepped first through the door and walked into the office of the chief of the German U-boats. 1st WO followed through, both men came to attention before the desk. Behind which sat the Commander of the U-boats himself, Kapitän zur See Karl Dönitz, forty-three years old, reading a paper.

-‘So Gentlemen, care to concoct some fanciful story of just why I should not have you both court-martial and drummed out of the navy this very afternoon for stealing a target ship and conducting an unscheduled target exercise? Have you any idea of the costs of torpedoes?’
-‘Herr Kapitän zur See, my report.’ Still at attention Hartmann put his report on the desk in front of Dönitz
-‘I am in no mood for games, kapitänleutnant Hartmann, give me the short version’
-‘ Jawohl herr Kapitän zur See. We fired a total of eight torpedoes at ideal range. Two hits, one premature detonation and one detonation five hundred meters beyond the target.’
-‘Two hits? Were you both drunk? What happened to other four torpedoes?’
-‘Herr Kapitän zur See neither of us were drunk, the crew can easily testify that, what happened to the other four torpedoes we do not know, they never detonated.’

Leafing through the report Dönitz grumbled ‘You are both suspended until further notice and docked one month pay each. I have not decided whether or not to court-martial you yet, dismissed.’
Both men made a salute that was answered, made an about face and marched out of the office.

Dönitz picked up his phone and dialled, a few seconds later he was answered ‘Erich? Dönitz here. Yes fine think you herr Generaladmiral. Listen we may have a situation with our torpedoes. I’d like to conduct an investigation if that is the case.’

Have they sunk an American ship?

 

[Rubicon]

Have they sunk an American ship?

Haha no, they 'stole' a target ship and conducted an unscheduled weapon exercise with 'live' weapons. Perhaps I was bit unclear.

The PoD is to explore the possibilites of Germany conducting a U-boat war with functional torpedoes.

 

[Kelenas]

Well, two of the PoDs seem to be a more competent/modernized Italian Army, and better-working German torpedoes.

Dunno about the ones with Japan/the Italian Navy, though.

- Kelenas

 

[Rubicon]

Well, two of the PoDs seem to be a more competent/modernized Italian Army, and better-working German torpedoes.

Dunno about the ones with Japan/the Italian Navy, though.

- Kelenas

PoD 3= Shorter Spanish Civil war and more £$€ for the Italians.
PoD 4= Gangbang on the British Empire, or if you prefer Japan ignore China and wait for the oppurtune moment to strike.

 

[stevep]

Rubicon

This sounds bad for the good guys. Not sure of the exact nature of POD1 except that the Italian army is going to be more efficient. [Suspect that OTL Mussolini didn't have the clear-out of old generals and update of tactics?].

If the Japanese army agrees to stay out of China and giving primacy to the navy - which is what a southern drive effectively means - and avoids a clash with the US this could be very bad for the allies. Presuming from the fact the Japanese office is being interrogated by an American officer they entered the war at some point and we still win but it could be a lot worse than OTL.

With POD3 I'm wondering if the Italians have intercepted a shipment of gold or something? [Have a feeling that Stalin managed to get a lot of gold from the Republicans in return for weapons]. This might be why the fascists managed to end the war nearly a year earlier or could be a case of the improved performance of the Italians having some effect? If not then wondering what the Italians have discovered and how it might affect things.

Anyway, looking forward to finding out more, although fear I won't like it much.

Steve

 

[The Red]

Haha no, they 'stole' a target ship and conducted an unscheduled weapon exercise with 'live' weapons. Perhaps I was bit unclear.

The PoD is to explore the possibilites of Germany conducting a U-boat war with functional torpedoes.

Ah, good bye to D-Day then or Britain?

 

[Sol Zagato]

The Japanese and Italian PoDs seem more fateful than the German one. How much gold is that?

 

[Rubicon]

Rubicon

This sounds bad for the good guys. Not sure of the exact nature of POD1 except that the Italian army is going to be more efficient. [Suspect that OTL Mussolini didn't have the clear-out of old generals and update of tactics?].

If the Japanese army agrees to stay out of China and giving primacy to the navy - which is what a southern drive effectively means - and avoids a clash with the US this could be very bad for the allies. Presuming from the fact the Japanese office is being interrogated by an American officer they entered the war at some point and we still win but it could be a lot worse than OTL.

With POD3 I'm wondering if the Italians have intercepted a shipment of gold or something? [Have a feeling that Stalin managed to get a lot of gold from the Republicans in return for weapons]. This might be why the fascists managed to end the war nearly a year earlier or could be a case of the improved performance of the Italians having some effect? If not then wondering what the Italians have discovered and how it might affect things.

Anyway, looking forward to finding out more, although fear I won't like it much.

Steve

You are definatly on the right track http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_gold

 

[Rubicon]

Ah, good bye to D-Day then or Britain?

No. D-day will happen, maybe not on june 6th 1944, but it will happen. And Britian will never surrender

 

[Rubicon]

Corpo Truppe Volontarie
The civil war that had so abruptly erupted in Spain presented the Italian Duce with a golden opportunity to test his precious army on a real battlefield against modern opponents without really risking much. The campaign in Abyssinia had been largely successful, but the opposition had been pitiful. Mussolini was anxious to once and for all rid the Italian army of its reputation from the Great War as an untrained mob.

Unfortunatly for Il Duce, this did not happen. The troops sent at first were mostly made up of volunteer black-shirts with little training and lots of enthusiasm. Led by the rather lacklustre Mario Roatta this first contingent of CTV had a performance that was close to abysmal and culminated in a humiliating defeat near Guadalajara in March 1937. When the reports came back to Rome of his troops, Mussolini was furious. Newspapers in the democratic world were laughing at the horrifying performance by the Italian troops, while praising the effectiveness of the German Condor Legion and at the same time condemning it. In a meeting with some senior Italian Generals Mussolini ranted and raved at them for almost an hour, at the end il Duce was close to tears.

According to witnesses one of the younger generals boldly told him that it was no wonder that the Italian troops had performed this badly since they were the worst in the entire Italian army. Then he said that if il Duce would send him, two regiments of Bersaglieri and one armoured brigade to Spain, he would take Barcelona. Mussolini granted this request immediately. This young major general was none other then Giovanni Messe, famous later on as the lion of Ukraine.

This second contingent that left Italy in June 1937, performed at a much higher degree of proficiency in Spain. And even received praise as the best led unit in the nationalist army by Generalissmo Francisco Franco. Late in July 1938, elements of the Italian armoured force reached the Mediterranean Ocean, just north of Barcelona, cutting off the city from any further contact with the remaining Republican forces. Compelling the Republican troops to evacuate the city less then two months later.

A report sent to the British war department by one of the British observers at the very end of the Spanish civil war pointedly warned about the marked increase of Italian military proficiency in the campaign. It called the Italian NCO’s among the best and most capable in the world and the Italian troops some of the bravest soldiers he had ever seen. Unfortunately for the British, but fortunate for the Italians, this report written by a young major William Slim of the Indian army was largely ignored.

Any thoughts?