OK so my ability at prose isn't very good so this TL will be in skeleton format with a few pictures added
1870 Napoleon III decides to leave the job of the Franco prussian war to his generals, instead of taking it on himself
1871 France wins the Franco Prussian war In the resulting peace treaty France annexes Luxembourg and territory roughly up to Trier and Saarbruken as a result southern German states don't join the North German confederation due to Austrian pressure
1872 Bismark manages to keep the North German confederation together
Austria attempts to assert it's dominance over the north german speaking states, Britain, concerned about potential French/ Austrian dominance warns Austria not to proceed and threatens war, instead Austria backs down
Austria creates the South German confederation which is dominated by Bavaria
1873-1905 France creates alliances in an attempt to encircle the north German confederation but Britain decides due to perceived French aggression ,to create a counterbalance against France at the outbreak of war the alliances are as follows:
1889 Napoleon III dies Napoleon IV takes over
Britain North German confederation Russia, Italy Sweden vs France, Austria Hungary, Spain, Ottoman Empire South German confederation.
1901-1903 war between Britain and the boers ends in a stalemate due to adequate French supplies reaching them. As a result the Boers ally with France.
1902 A small fire on a U.S ship based in Havana is put out before it causes any major damage
1903 French come up with a plan to invade Britain then knock out the North German confederation, resulting in a quick war this becomes known as plan phoque or in English seal
1904 referendum in Norway to secede from Sweden fails narrowly
1905 February-April Border clashes in Africa between France and Britain over uncolonised areas