Not too far off, though Naples and Spain's little dispute could be just one theatre in any war that does break out. Don't forget, Britannia and France are at loggerheads in the New WorldNot necessarily, taking a look at the post from the Spanish perspective "Chapter 279: A Spanish Lesson" , it mentions preparations for war in case both the Neapolitan King and Heir died of illness as that would leave the Duke of Parma in charge.
However reading this post here, although the King may not survive, based on these lines:
I did take this to imply that Ferdinand, the heir has recovered to an extent that he is not in danger anymore. Unless the 'they' being discussed was the King and his Godly side as monarchs use 'we' rather than 'I' to give orders. If the heir has recovered and stays alive, then for now war is averted unless someone does something rash.
Meanwhile, while there could be a war if Ferdinand drops dead, that he has survived might mean the Duke of Parma could die before him or that Ferdinand cold sire an heir. While it does not mean the prescience of war is entirely gone. It does mean there will not be a war in Naples right now.