SEPTEMBER, 1999 - CLINTON REGAINS EDGE, LEADS BRADLEY BY 25 POINTS
President's lead grew 15 points the last month and a half
Bill Clinton found his mojo in late summer, rebounding strongly to recapture a solid lead over Bill Bradley for Democratic nomination.
Which candidate would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000?
- Bill Clinton: 55%(45)
- Bill Bradley: 40%(35)
- Undecided: 5% (20)
Clinton had rebounded well heading into the final stretch of the primary season. Much of the undecideds had made up their mind and were overwhelmingly choosing the President, which was a bit of a surprise considering undecideds almost always break for challengers. But we were taking the string of good news and had hoped it would eventually carry over through to the primaries.
Where we felt we stood strongest was the fact we had battled back on the narrative that the President was weak. For a while there, specifically in the early parts of the summer, we looked down right beatable in many people's eyes and that narrative started, surprisingly enough, turning into a reality. We had to push back at it and the roll out of his campaign helped do just that.
For months, the message was that a great deal of Democrats did not support Clinton's third term run. But by September, those voices had trailed off a bit and the questioning Democrats were pinched enough so that they became less and less a threat and more of just a nuisance.
Because of this, we felt Clinton didn't need near the media presence that we initially expected out of the gate. By mid-September, he was back in Washington doing Presidential business, which I think helped support this image of a leader. The revised plan called for the President to hit the campaign trail again once December rolled around, make some final stops in Iowa and New Hampshire and hopefully wrap up the nomination fairly early. - A 21st Century Campaign (John Sasso)
IS BRADLEY DONE?
Lack of funds, and a surging Clinton have many doubting Bradley's chances
Bill Bradley's once vaunted campaign has petered out since Clinton's announcement for a third term.
Bradley's campaign really grew in the early summer months of 2000 and it never could keep up with that growth. He tried, to be sure, but by fall, it was becoming more and more clear he needed something else to boost his efforts.
It's not easy unseating a sitting president and with Clinton still owning a high approval rating, specifically among Democrats, Bradley really needed to thread the needle. For a moment, with the endorsements of high-profiled figures like Bob Kerrey and Paul Wellstone, it looked like he might do it, or at least challenge the President in a very contested primary. But when the noise of endorsements died down and Clinton officially announced to a great deal of pomp and fanfare, Bradley just couldn't keep up.
I think it became quite obvious how little, in the end, endorsements matter. Bradley got a temporary bump from each endorsement he received, but they were never sustaining. They didn't bring in huge sums of cash and Clinton was still the establishment candidate, which helped reassure many Democratic voters who not only liked the guy, but wanted to win in 2000.
That's what made '00 so different from '92 and '80 when two other incumbent presidents faced primary challengers. In both years, not only were party members upset with the sitting president, they also weren't convinced he could win. Democrats knew Bill Clinton could win, even if, at the time, he trailed George W. Bush in the polls. Bradley was a nice guy with some nice ideas, but he wasn't Bill Clinton and he wouldn't carry the election. Only one guy was going to hold the White House for the Democrats and it was Clinton - not Bradley. - BUCKLE UP! The Election 2000 Thriller (Larry J. Sabato)
Judy Woodruff, William Safire, David Brooks and David Broder discuss the struggling Bradley campaign.
Tim Russert: This week, a new Gallup poll shows the President surging ahead of Democratic rival Bill Bradley, building on a 10 point lead from a July poll that showed the race tightening. Is Bill Bradley's campaign essentially over, or is there a way to battle back? Judy?
Judy Woodruff: It's not looking good for Bradley. He really needed to sustain momentum into the fall if he had any chance of making this a race and that doesn't appear to be the case now. You know, he gave a good fight and I think did better than many of us expected, but in the end, Clinton is Clinton and as many can attest, it's not easy beating this guy. He's a very talented campaigner and he successfully barnstormed these early primary states, got a ton of positive press out of it and really closed any door on a Bradley surge at the moment. I don't see, I really don't know, uh, how Bradley is going to make this a race again.
Tim Russert: Mr. Safire?
William Safire: Well, you know, this is literally the stretch run. There isn't much time to get back into this thing and you've got to think, you know, I agree with Judy, that in the end, he put up a great fight, made some noise, got out the issues he wanted to get out, but ultimately, you know, he's going to come up short. The fact Jimmy Carter, the most wounded incumbent president since Hoover, managed to fend off a primary challenge from Ted Kennedy, and in some ways, convincingly, just shows how difficult it is to unseat a sitting president. In some ways, you can't help but feel bad for Bradley because when he began this adventure some nine or so months ago, I doubt he felt he would be running against President Clinton. You know, he had been, the President, had been tied down with the whole Lewinsky affair and did not look like a viable candidate. He was able to get an approval boost, of course, and really rode that to the potential nomination, but I don't think that's what Bradley signed on for when he decided to run. He really, I think, anyway, really felt he would be running against Al Gore.
Tim Russert: Speaking of the Vice President, he's been campaigning with Clinton, but has not announced whether he'll seek a third term along with the President. The general consensus in Washington is that Gore won't seek the third term, leaving Clinton open to a new vice presidential candidate. Uh, what I want to know, if Clinton has to choose a new VP, who's he going with - uh, Mr. Brooks?
David Brooks: I think he'll look at Bob Graham of Florida mostly because if it's George W. Bush who he's going to face in the general, and I think, in the end, it will be, he'll need Florida and Jeb Bush is going to be a political force for his brother there. Graham is a moderate Democrat, a southerner and in the mold of what Clinton likes politically - someone centrist and someone, uh, who is, uh, not too risky. He's, uh, a, uh safe pick and a good pick. I think Graham would be a strong pick for the President because he's not someone who's, you know, ambitious and, you know, presidents like to have a number two who isn't about to shake the boat as much as someone with their eyes set on the presidency might. I think he'll want someone different than Al Gore because he got a very ambitious vice president who, you know, was, was not, as we've seen in this election, in this primary process, not exactly, or entirely, a team player. He wants that in a VP pick. He wants someone who will go to the mat for him and not question judgment. I think, from what I've heard, from who I've spoken to, Graham is a very loyal, very respectful guy and in that vein.
Tim Russert: Do you agree with that, uh, David - David Broder?
David Broder: Yes, yes, I think David is absolutely right here. Graham is probably on the short list if it's not Gore and I would think, in the end, very high on that short list. I would also add Bobb Kerrey, who, you know, endorsed Bill Bradley, but I think would be very open to taking the position if offered and - and I'll throw this out there, Bill Bradley. Here is a Democrat who was able to really energize a group of the party that has felt, at times, disenfranchised by the moderate wing and I think he would be a type unifying pick that would help deliver Democrats that might otherwise decide to sit this next election out.
Now I don't think Clinton would pick him because, to go back to what David is saying, the President probably wants a candidate who's, who's, you know, not going to be a stick in the mud on a lot of issues. Bradley is very proactive and I don't know if he would be able to go along with what he calls Clinton's tepidness just for the sake of the party and the presidency. So, in that regard, it's probably unlikely but it's also possible there is a situation that arises where Bradley might be the only guy Clinton can pick - you know, Bradley or someone like Wellstone in Minnesota, who's going to deliver the election. And, let's be honest, that's the bottom line. This is all about victory next November and Clinton knows this. He isn't running just to run. He's running to win and he'll do what is best for that bottom line, even if he has to stomach a Vice President who's maybe a bit more pushy than, say, Bob Graham or Bob Kerrey.