A Brazilian victory at the Cisplatine War?

[Vinization]

The Cisplatine War was a two and a half year long (December 1825 to August 1828) conflict which pitted the Empire of Brazil on one side and the United Provinces of the Río de la Plata on the other, the latter of whom also enjoyed the support of a group rebels known as the Thirty-Three Orientals. Neither combatant secured a decisive advantage, however - the Brazilians couldn't defeat the Argentines on land, and the Argentines were unable to defeat the Brazilian navy, which imposed a blockade that devastated their economy. In the end, neither side gained control of the disputed region of Banda Oriental, which instead became its own country, the modern Republic of Uruguay.

What if Brazil won, and it did so early on? While Buenos Aires gave covert support for the Thirty-Three Orientals, it wasn't until after the Battle of Sarandí, a decisive rebel victory, that they intervened directly. With this in mind, could the rebellion be defeated without sparking a major war if one of the battles that went the Orientals' way in its early stages (Rincón de las Gallinas and Sarandí) was instead won by the Brazilian army?

Assuming Cisplatina stays a part of Brazil, and it does so without stretching the young empire's already shaky finances even further (Rio de Janeiro was already busy paying a huge indemnity to Portugal to secure its independence, and it wouldn't be able to raise import tariffs until 1844), how could the later years of emperor Pedro I's reign develop? I think he'll still be forced to abdicate at some point, but he'd probably be able to hold on to power for a few more extra years, which will definitely affect the regency period and Pedro II's childhood.

 

[Bunnyrich]

The Cisplatine War was a two and a half year long (December 1825 to August 1828) conflict which pitted the Empire of Brazil on one side and the United Provinces of the Río de la Plata on the other, the latter of whom also enjoyed the support of a group rebels known as the Thirty-Three Orientals. Neither combatant secured a decisive advantage, however - the Brazilians couldn't defeat the Argentines on land, and the Argentines were unable to defeat the Brazilian navy, which imposed a blockade that devastated their economy. In the end, neither side gained control of the disputed region of Banda Oriental, which instead became its own country, the modern Republic of Uruguay.

What if Brazil won, and it did so early on? While Buenos Aires gave covert support for the Thirty-Three Orientals, it wasn't until after the Battle of Sarandí, a decisive rebel victory, that they intervened directly. With this in mind, could the rebellion be defeated without sparking a major war if one of the battles that went the Orientals' way in its early stages (Rincón de las Gallinas and Sarandí) was instead won by the Brazilian army?

Assuming Cisplatina stays a part of Brazil, and it does so without the young empire's already shaky economy even further (Rio de Janeiro was already busy paying a huge indemnity to Portugal to secure its independence, and it wouldn't be able to raise import tariffs until 1844), how could the later years of emperor Pedro I's reign develop? I think he'll still be forced to abdicate at some point, but he'd probably be able to hold on to power for a few more extra years, which will definitely affect the regency period and Pedro II's childhood.

His abdication was essentially the result of everything that could go wrong going wrong. It was by all means and is considered by many as a fluke that shouldn’t have happened. He may abdicate due to not personally liking the position but this empire probably wouldn’t die, especially with that stronger result in the war

 

[nagachate]

His abdication was essentially the result of everything that could go wrong going wrong. It was by all means and is considered by many as a fluke that shouldn’t have happened. He may abdicate due to not personally liking the position but this empire probably wouldn’t die, especially with that stronger result in the war

well there were reasons that i don't think could be butterflied away that brought his popularity down, including being portuguese, which is something he can't change, in many occasions the "nativists" like the Marquis of Barbacena used lusophobia, which was very widespread in 1800s Brazil, to attack the emperor, the term "secret cabinet" was used to reffer to conservative portuguese politicians that surrounded the emperor(directly criticizing the emperor was a crime according to the 1824 constitution btw)

not to mention his affairs and his impopularity among liberals for sending troops to stop the drafting of a constitution becuse he didn't liked how weak it had made him, the mentioned Marquis of Barbacena was a prominient figure in the struggle against Pedro's "absolutism"

edit: an anecdote of lusophobia, there was a communist newspapers in the 1900s that was hillariously prejudiced against portuguese migrants

 

[nagachate]

I don't know a lot about Argentine history, but holding Uruguay would give Brazil a lead in the unavoidable struggles with Argentina over the La Plata basin, aswell as potentially butterfly away the Paraguay War(?), maybe also make Britain fear Brazil's influence in the basin and side against it in some international dispute

 

[Slime_blob]

Chile and Brazil on one side and meanwhile Peru-Bolvia and Argentina on the other, a new power dynamics, hmmm I'm not sure if that is plausible but definitely new balance of power and dynamics in SA

 

[Vinization]

well there were reasons that i don't think could be butterflied away that brought his popularity down, including being portuguese, which is something he can't change, in many occasions the "nativists" like the Marquis of Barbacena used lusophobia, which was very widespread in 1800s Brazil, to attack the emperor, the term "secret cabinet" was used to reffer to conservative portuguese politicians that surrounded the emperor(directly criticizing the emperor was a crime according to the 1824 constitution btw)

not to mention his affairs and his impopularity among liberals for sending troops to stop the drafting of a constitution becuse he didn't liked how weak it had made him, the mentioned Marquis of Barbacena was a prominient figure in the struggle against Pedro's "absolutism"

edit: an anecdote of lusophobia, there was a communist newspapers in the 1900s that was hillariously prejudiced against portuguese migrants

I think Pedro will still have to abdicate at some point, thanks to his affairs (it was too late by the time he finally straightened himself up, plus Leopoldina was already dead), authoritarianism and involvement in Portuguese affairs (unless John VI's poisoning is prevented somehow). One thing is certain, the Farroupilha definitely won't happen here, since the gaúcho ranchers won't have to worry about foreign competition with all the extra lands they have in Cisplatina.

 

[Vinization]

@ByzantineCaesar @Kaiser of Brazil @Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

I can imagine that Cisplatina, at least in the early years, will lead to low-level insurgency and conflicts both within Argentina and between them and Brazil. For instance, the Unitarians likely wouldn’t have been able to establish the 1826 Constitution and short-lived Presidency without the war in Brazil to provide a common enemy. Or a defeat that allows Brazil to consolidate it’s control over the vital Platinean basin would instead give even more push for unification that would work right within Rosas’ favor. Unless it erupts later on with Urquiza, that butterflies away the War against Rosas. Rosas recognized Paraguay as a part of Argentina, which could provoke a later conflict, or both could ally against Brazil’s encroachment on the region. Overall I expect the territory to be even more disputed, although it prevents the Farroupilha war and the Uruguayan Civil War.

As for Brazil, it could give Pedro a much-needed boost to his popularity, but considering his personality I believe he would still end up leaving due to his personal conflict with Miguel in Portugal. Brazilian finances would be in a better shape without the long war, and while he may not abdicate in 31, it could be in 33-34. These few extra years could still work wonders on little Pedro’s mindset, and if his father is able to be more present and guide him better, I could see him being more dedicated to the matters of governance and the benefits that would bring to Brazil could be great. Like an earlier abolition of slavery, a properly settled succession, and avoiding the inanition of his later reign.

 

[Belka DNW]

I'm 3 months late but please hear me out.

swell as potentially butterfly away the Paraguay War(?)

The war could still happen, López used supporting the Blancos in Uruguay against the Colorados, supported by Brazil, as a casus belli. We just need to change a few things like, as an exemple, López supporting a small resistence movement and, after Brazil goes down south to crush it, he uses this as casus belli. Argentina might join them against Brazil or not, depending on their domestic situation, but even if they didn't join Argentina still would be supporting Paraguya unoficially since this Brazil is in a stronger position.

Also Cisplatina could end up heavly assimilated, with portuguese becoming the main language in the big cities and spanish surviving in the interior.

 

[Coivara]

I think Paraguay is going to become pretty much a brazilian sattelite ITTL. They need the Prata to trade with the rest of the world. If the Prata is brazilian-controlled, they are at the Empire's mercy. The Empire might take some land from Paraguay later on, if there's a war, but I don't think an annexation of Paraguay is likely - its pretty much a giant hell-swamp at the time.

The Paraguyans will probably try to play Brazil against Argentina while keeping Brazil from getting too close. I suspect they will take Uruguay's role as Britain's nice little neutral buffer state TTL.

 

[John I of Brazil]

I think Paraguay is going to become pretty much a brazilian sattelite ITTL. They need the Prata to trade with the rest of the world. If the Prata is brazilian-controlled, they are at the Empire's mercy. The Empire might take some land from Paraguay later on, if there's a war, but I don't think an annexation of Paraguay is likely - its pretty much a giant hell-swamp at the time.

The Paraguyans will probably try to play Brazil against Argentina while keeping Brazil from getting too close. I suspect they will take Uruguay's role as Britain's nice little neutral buffer state TTL.

There's also the fact Argentina claimed Paraguay as a one of their provinces for quite a time, so we would probably see Paraguay aligning with Brazil to secure its independence.

Meanwhile, Brazil would surely prefer a strong Paraguay. IOTL the empire refused to split Paraguay after the end of the war because they didn't wanted more borders with Argentina, their true traditional rival in the region. ITTL, not only the BR-ARG border would be larger, but the empire would be too close to Buenos Aires. In these circumstances, Brazil would support Paraguay to make it a even better buffer state, probably even supporting their territorial claims to argentinian soil (as long as their abandon their claims to Brazilian territories, that is).

 

[Aluma]

Huh, imagine a War of Paraguay where its just Brazil & Paraguay teaming up against Argentina

 

[Taunay]

Huh, imagine a War of Paraguay where its just Brazil & Paraguay teaming up against Argentina

Brazilian Mesopotamia 🤭

 

[Aluma]

Brazilian Mesopotamia 🤭

And Paraguayan Argentina(?)

 

[Taunay]

But seriously it would be a big wank for Brazil.
It would give more land to ranchers, preventing the destructive and costly Ragamuffin War, and would allow more immigration to Brazil.
If it does expand to include Mesopotamia and butterflies make it more powerful and prosperous, resulting in better distribution of land (Ruralization) and improved health outcomes (Reducing infant mortality), combined with millions more immigrants (Brazil received less immigrants than Argentina IOTL. In this world, this may not be the case), we could see this ATL Brazil having a population between 260-290 million.
Montevidéu would have a much bigger population (Anything from 3 to 10 million is possible).
Brazil as a whole would be not a superpower but THE power of the Southern Hemisphere (Even more powerful than Australia, Indonesia, Argentina and South Africa)

 

[Metempsychosis]

I'm thinking about how Pedro II not going to Portugal and getting tuberculosis would affect the political dynamics of Brazil. Having a mature liberal constitutional monarch tutoring his son on politics would change the way the monarchy is viewed, but IDK how. Without that regency period, would Brazilian monarchy stand stronger?

 

[Coivara]

There's also the fact Argentina claimed Paraguay as a one of their provinces for quite a time, so we would probably see Paraguay aligning with Brazil to secure its independence.

Meanwhile, Brazil would surely prefer a strong Paraguay. IOTL the empire refused to split Paraguay after the end of the war because they didn't wanted more borders with Argentina, their true traditional rival in the region. ITTL, not only the BR-ARG border would be larger, but the empire would be too close to Buenos Aires. In these circumstances, Brazil would support Paraguay to make it a even better buffer state, probably even supporting their territorial claims to argentinian soil (as long as their abandon their claims to Brazilian territories, that is).

Yes, I also think Paraguay gravitating to Brazil is what is likely to happen. In fact, that's what happened during most of the 19th century, the Paraguayan War was an anomalous moment brought about Solano Lopez thinking that Brazilian interference in Uruguayan politics would defacto close the Prata to Paraguay and pretty much put Paraguay to the wall. I'm not even sure if anyone in the empire actually planned to do such a thing. That, and the fact Solano Lopez was kind of delusional about his chances.

Brazil giving some argentiean land to Paraguay in order to weaken it makes sense, perhaps ally with Chile to do the same. Plus it would allow Brazil to encircle Bolivia. If Brazil takes Argentinean Mesopotamia, it would be vital to weaken Argentina. Essentially, the Empire would do to Argentina what the US did to Mexico - whale on it until its no longer a peer competitor. The Paraguayans might go for it if it enables their dreams of expansion and independence, the Empire might allow it to use Paraguay as a catspawn to hit Argentina with. Maybe we get a Brazil-Paraguay agreement of the use of the Prata River as a precedent to free navigation there.

Might lead to some wars between Paraguay and Bolivia, too.

Paraguay would also be stronger, not just from more territory, but no Paraguayan War.

So we might end with a weakened Argentina, a bigger buffer Paraguay (perhaps with a few arrangements in favour of Brazil to get something like the current-day borders) and a stronger Brazil.
A Brazil that manages to "finish" its regional geopolitical issues by 1860-1870 might start looking outwards...

 

[Slime_blob]

If weaker Argentina then they will fall into Bolivian sphere. Peru Bolivia and Argentina. If Santa Cruz is smart, probably he puts like Puppets in Peru and Argentina.

Meanwhile Chile and Brazil teams up.

Paraguay is like neutral

 

[Taunay]

Yes, I also think Paraguay gravitating to Brazil is what is likely to happen. In fact, that's what happened during most of the 19th century, the Paraguayan War was an anomalous moment brought about Solano Lopez thinking that Brazilian interference in Uruguayan politics would defacto close the Prata to Paraguay and pretty much put Paraguay to the wall. I'm not even sure if anyone in the empire actually planned to do such a thing. That, and the fact Solano Lopez was kind of delusional about his chances.

Brazil giving some argentiean land to Paraguay in order to weaken it makes sense, perhaps ally with Chile to do the same. Plus it would allow Brazil to encircle Bolivia. If Brazil takes Argentinean Mesopotamia, it would be vital to weaken Argentina. Essentially, the Empire would do to Argentina what the US did to Mexico - whale on it until its no longer a peer competitor. The Paraguayans might go for it if it enables their dreams of expansion and independence, the Empire might allow it to use Paraguay as a catspawn to hit Argentina with. Maybe we get a Brazil-Paraguay agreement of the use of the Prata River as a precedent to free navigation there.

Might lead to some wars between Paraguay and Bolivia, too.

Paraguay would also be stronger, not just from more territory, but no Paraguayan War.

So we might end with a weakened Argentina, a bigger buffer Paraguay (perhaps with a few arrangements in favour of Brazil to get something like the current-day borders) and a stronger Brazil.
A Brazil that manages to "finish" its regional geopolitical issues by 1860-1870 might start looking outwards...

Sounds like an amazing TL

 

[holycookie]

If weaker Argentina then they will fall into Bolivian sphere. Peru Bolivia and Argentina. If Santa Cruz is smart, probably he puts like Puppets in Peru and Argentina.

Meanwhile Chile and Brazil teams up.

Paraguay is like neutral

it is easier for argentina to fall into the Chilean sphere than that of Bolivia. Bolivia was the weakest competitor of all. Paraguay, after the Paraguayan war, having more than 60% of its dead population won the war against bolivia (Bolivia had 100 thousand more men, and had twice the number of dead).