A Bomb available January 1945

MrP

Banned
I think people tend to over-estimate the power of WWII nuclear weapons. Hiroshima/Nagasaki could have been achieved by 2,000 B29s with conventional bombs.

The Nazis did not surrender after conventional bombs and would not after A bombs without an invasion. Here's previous discussion about a Dec '43 bomb.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=17680

I have been doing some thinking about the physics and

Energy Damage to city = bomb energy + energy of combustibles burnt in the city.

For the A bombs that relied on blast the second term is negligible but for the incendiary raids against Hamburg, Dresden and Tokyo it is significant.

At a guess

City True tonnage
Tokyo 40,000
Dresden 25,000
Hamburg 20,000
Hiroshima 20,000

It would be interesting to do some figures on the energy in 1 hectare of wooden property.

I think you've got some valid points here. But don't forget the morale implications. If the recipients of an A-bomb don't know how many the enemy have, it's a bit worrisome that a single plane - as opposed to 2,000 - can knock out a (goodly portion of a) city.
 

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
Actually, when you suggested it at first I did wonder if he was a sockpuppet for someone else who uses inappropriate smilies to headline his posts. But the style's quite different, so I think it's probably coincidence.

Agree, I don't think there's any sockpuppetry going on here.

However, this thread is starting to get pretty heated. It might require a visit by the Admin to calm it down.


Sargon
 
I think you've got some valid points here. But don't forget the morale implications. If the recipients of an A-bomb don't know how many the enemy have, it's a bit worrisome that a single plane - as opposed to 2,000 - can knock out a (goodly portion of a) city.

Also, there's another point. The damage inflicted by a B-29 force (it would be a bit more than 2000 - according to Mission with LeMay, the B-29s on firebombing raids carried six tons of incendiaries so to equal the Model 1561 dropped on Nagasaki would need 3,333 B-29s) would be spread out in time and area. Now, in some ways that's no bad thing. The problem with Japanese cities was that light industry and sub-component suppliers were spread thinly throughout the city including the residential areas. So, burning the whole city down was the only way to get at them. A nuclear strike though inflicts all its damage in a single simultaneous blow. From a morale point of view its stunning.

It's one thing to have a city destroyed by 3,333 bombers, its quite another to have it destroyed by one - not least because it raises the question of what the other 3,332 have in mind.
 
I think people tend to over-estimate the power of WWII nuclear weapons. Hiroshima/Nagasaki could have been achieved by 2,000 B29s with conventional bombs.

The Nazis did not surrender after conventional bombs and would not after A bombs without an invasion. Here's previous discussion about a Dec '43 bomb.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=17680

I have been doing some thinking about the physics and

Energy Damage to city = bomb energy + energy of combustibles burnt in the city.

For the A bombs that relied on blast the second term is negligible but for the incendiary raids against Hamburg, Dresden and Tokyo it is significant.

At a guess

City True tonnage
Tokyo 40,000
Dresden 25,000
Hamburg 20,000
Hiroshima 20,000

It would be interesting to do some figures on the energy in 1 hectare of wooden property.

Dresden: 7,100.5
Hamburg: 39,687.6
Hiroshima (yield of Little Boy): 15 kilotons
 

hammo1j

Donor
Here we go - crop yield of one Hectare = 10,000m2 is 6 tonnes of oil equivalent. Assume this converts to energy in 6 tonnes of bombs.

NB These figures very OM but For Tokyo March 9/10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo_in_World_War_II

1,700 tons of bombs dropped and 41km2 destroyed.

41km2 = 4100 Hectares which is equivalent to roughly 24000 tons of bombs

This gives a total yield of 25 kt ie 60% on top of Hiroshima if that was 15kt.

Will do some more calcs to get other cities.
 
Back on Topic..

There was certainly much less of a moral problem among those in charge of the Manhattan Project when it came to the destruction of Germany. The fact that a number of the leading players were Jewish or had Jewish connections made the desire to destroy the Nazis far stronger even than the desire to defeat Japan.

Had the A-Bomb been ready in January 1945, the question of where it could or would have been dropped is interesting. Clearly, Dresden and Nuremburg are possibilities though I think we could consider places like Leipzig, Chemnitz or Magdeburg. The fact was that it had to be close enough so that those in Berlin, without feeling the direct effects, would be aware of what had been unleashed. One of the problems that occurred with the destruction of Hiroshima was that it was a day or two before anyone in Tokyo knew what had happened. An atomic explosion over Dresden or Magdeburg would be visible in Berlin (as would the noise).

The Soviet offensive (Bagration) was launched on January 12th. Even by mid-February, the Red Army had only just pushed into Germany. Had an A-Bomb been dropped in mid-January with a second a week or so later, would the Germans have collapsed in panic ? The view here seems to be in the negative but I'm less convinced given what would have been the appalling destruction.

One point for future reference: would the experience of having atomic bombs explode on its soil make any post-war German state much more resistant to being a base for tactical nuclear weapons ?
 
I have read that the US greatly preferred to target Japan and not Germany with the bomb. Their reasoning was that if the bomb was a dud, German scientists might be able to disassemble it and figure out what went wrong. Apparently nobody thought the Japanese would be able to create one on their own.

Source: Weird History 101 By John Richard Stephens
 
Here's an idea nobody has thought of: Use one tactically in Italy at the start of an offensive. Idea being to punch a big hole in the German lines and break through.
 
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