A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

One thing that would be interesting to see is the future of Kingdom of Yugoslavia. While political and ethnic tensions would still plague it to a certain degree, not to mention Italy at the doorstep eyeing Dalmatian coast and the islands, it would certainly be in a much better shape overall.

First of all, political reforms which started with Cvetković-Maček agreement are bound to continue, so along with Croatians, Slovenes and possibly Macedonians are going to gain greater autonomy then before. This would go a long way in defusing many ethnic tensions, and without absolute bloodletting that was Yugoslavia in WW2, many of the hatreds still plaguing the region would never exist. Add to that the fact that Yugoslavia is not likely to lose anywhere between 1 to 1.7 million people as happened IOTL, and not suffer complete annihilation of infrastructure and industry due to heavy guerilla fighting, and it is certainly going to be miles ahead of where it was IOTL.

Of course Italy is a problem, and while the British and the French are occupied with the Germans, they are unlikely to either be willing or able to help. Though, Royal Yugoslav Military was starting to rearm itself in the late 30ies, and while OTL they never had enough time to do it properly, here situation is certainly better off, if only by a couple percent.

From the top of my head, they had a relatively decent plans, and could would be able to get most of the weapons and other equipment from the domestic souces. So, aviation wise licence production of Bristol Blenheim, Hawker Hurricane Mk.I , Do-17 (not sure about this TBH), and pride of Interwar Yugoslav aviation industries the IK-3 fighter, which had roughly the same performance as early Soviet Yak-1 models. Two modern destroyers were also built in domestic shipyards, and two more were under construction, though they were reliant on foreign sources for propulsion and armament. Before the war even started Poland gave license for production of 46/47 mm light mortars, and full scale production of both weapons and ammunition was prepared. Factory was built in Travink for production of large caliber Artillery barrels and for complete production of modern AT guns. They have also obtained a license and commenced the preparation of the production of Škoda 47 mm AT Guns, the first of which were to be made by the end of October of 1941. Hydraulics factory was built, and from the end of 1940 all the aircraft made had domestic hydraulics, as well as all motor vehicles. Two truck factories were also built in Rakovica and Kragujevac respectively, though IOTL they only were building vehicle from kits, with full domestic production to start at later date.

Modernization of heavy artillery was also planned, and WW1 vitage howitzers 10 cm Skoda M.14/M.16 went through a refit, with longer barrels and stronger breeches fitted. The artillery tubes were obtained from Czechoslovakia at first, but they were also the last artillery weapons which would be modernized with components purchased abroad. All further modernization was to be made with components made in already mentioned facility in Travnik.

In regards to AT weapons, modernization was planned for old 8 cm M 05/8 field guns into modern AT guns by replacing the old carriage with a new two-wheel carriage, replacing the hydraulics and installing a stronger breech to allow using the new M 28. AP ammunition. In addition to AT weapons already imported, mostly Czech 36/47mm guns, serial production of 47mm model was also planned, and license was procured.

Also building of a tire production plant at the Bata plant in Borovo was started for trucks and bicycles, though I am unaware how far they actually got with that. Factory for production of poison gas and chemical biological agents was completed in Krusevac in late March 1941. The serial production (or at least assembly) of aircraft at the newly built factories of Albatros (Sremska Mitrovica), Utva (Pancevo) and Obilićevo Krusevac (only light training aircraft and gliders) began in early 1941. Production of modern radio stations in Čačak, suitable for military use and field phones were already manufactured there. In addition to aircraft, IMR has started mass production of truck engines, I believe based on a light Chevrolet truck design. All this was done in 1939, 1940 and early 1941, and more time goes by, Royal Yugoslav Armed forces might become a respectable force, especially once internal political problems are slowly resolved.

Not to mention that Yugoslavia does have access to world markets, and while there will still be competition for many items and resources Yugoslavia needs, and it will be outbid often, a trickle would still help a lot. Not to mention that as war drags to its conclusion, France once again becomes availlable as a supplier, so Tanks and other things may become availlable in large quantites and at lower prices.

That is in addition to general modernization of the armed forces, with complete replacement of Oxen with Horses for artillery and supply towing. Some formations were also supposed to be motorized along the French model I believe, though that seems to be replacement of horses with trucks, not complete motorization of the infantry. Also, greater use of bicycles was planned, in both Infantry and Cavalry units, large scale production of ZB Vz.26 LMG, as well general increase in production of various supplies and necessary war materiel.

Just my 2 cents ;).
 
Last edited:
2nd January 1942

Can't believe I missed this

A meeting of the Fascist Grand Council takes place in Rome to discuss options, with none of them looking good. The Yugoslav delay to the transport of their best troops back from Romania is a major headache since many of their remaining good troops are in Libya and would need extensive acclimatisation before being committed to an alpine campaign in winter. Worse, reports from the border with Austria are uniformly bad. The Timmelsjoch pass is completely closed, and while the Alpini report that the Reschen pass is accessible to ski troops the roads behind it are utterly hopeless meaning only a small force of light infantry could move through it into the maze of alpine valleys behind.

This leaves only the Brenner through which an offensive could conceivably be conducted, and here views differ widely. It is clear to all present that any attack would be extremely difficult, and would most likely be entirely reliant on the railway line over the pass to provide supplies under the extremely difficult conditions present. Given the potential for any German/Austrian demolitions to destroy this railway line (and the fact that the terrain is much worse for an attacker than the Isonzo, of which he has painful memories), Marshal Badoglio in particular is strongly against making any attack until the weather improves substantially.

Mussolini in turn makes it clear that while the form of the advance into Austria is open for discussion, some form of attack is a political imperative and (with a pointed look at Badoglio) no excuses will be accepted from the armed forces as to why they cannot do this. This prompts a rather more constructive discussion (except from Badoglio, who remains silent), with a number of suggestions being accepted for further study. The most promising is the suggestion of an air-landing operation using Caproni 133 transports fitted with skis to fly troops in to the meadows to the west of Innsbruck, potentially allowing the capture of the Brenner Pass from both sides. Under normal circumstances this would be a suicide mission, but it is clear from the German collapse and reports of the fighting around Vienna that the troops involved are unlikely to face effective resistance.

I'm with the Marshal on this as I really don't see what Italy could get by joining at this point. The allies will not view Austria as innocent and what to occupy it for rebuilding German society/culture. Whilst the landing is unlikely to be contested I'm not sure if it will be worth it.


Meanwhile, in Moscow a similar meeting is taking place where STAVKA are presenting revised plans to Stalin. Four options are presented:

  1. Do nothing – the Soviet Union has already recovered nearly all of the land lost after the revolution, and the risk of war with the Imperialists may outweigh the value of spreading Socialism further.
  2. Retrieve the Klaipėda territories occupied by the Germans in 1939. This could be done at little risk with no requirement for additional forces and should be completed with 48 hours of the order being given.
  3. Declare war on Germany and occupy East Prussia in addition to Klaipėda – the People's Commissariat for Foreign Affairs have informed us that they do not believe that we would have problems with the imperialists in the event of our moving into strictly German territories. However, a significant fraction of the remaining German army is present here and is be expected to fight hard. Accordingly the professional advice from STAVKA is that additional forces beyond those currently available would be required for such an invasion. Delaying the start of the campaign until sufficient forces are in place will significantly shorten it, allowing the occupation to be completed earlier than would otherwise be the case. Based on the best information available, the campaign could not be launched before the end of January, and would be expected to last at least two weeks.
  4. Declare war on Germany and attack over the entire frontier between the Soviet Union and German-occupied territory. STAVKA have been unable to find a way to bring forward this attack past the end of February with any hope of success, and indeed are starting to believe that this may be an over-optimistic date. Consultations with the People's Commissariat of Internal Affairs regarding recent instances of unrest in those territories recovered from Poland in 1939 have led to a significant revision in the estimates for how many line of communications troops would be required if the advance is to be sustained for any length of time. In addition to this, the People's Commissariat for Foreign Affairs have raised concerns about the behaviour of the Imperialists in such a scenario and the Red Army would require explicit orders on how they are to react to any such threats of a military nature.

Options 2/Memel makes the most sense as it was part of Lithuania so there would be no more allied objection then when the rest of the Baltic's were invaded.


The Hungarians advancing into Poland have finally reached Tarnow after a journey dominated by weather and roads rather than German opposition. Fighting on this front is sporadic – the Home Army is in control of about ⅓ of Poland by now, but as a patchwork quilt of small areas rather than wide swathes of territory. The intelligence that they are able to provide to the Hungarians is superb however – they usually know the full details of a German position at least a day before they can get to it, down to the last rifle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_Is_Not_Yet_Lost
+
Do you hear the people sing



The British 4th Army have slowed their advance somewhat, handicapped once again by petrol deliveries. However their advance by the standards of any other time in the war is spectacular – the Baltic coast is now completely occupied between Neustadt and Wismar, and significant forces have curled left to nearly complete the encirclement of Hamburg. Elsewhere it is something of a slow news day – the rest of the British Army is desperately trying to bring up enough Petrol to start moving again, while the French are frantically disarming and moving PoWs to enable them to resume their advance.

If memory is correct Denmark and Norway are isolated from the Reich at this point, and I think there is a clear path to Berlin.
 
OK, counting through the 3R's neighbors the only ones that aren't trying to figure out where to move troops are
1) Yugoslavia (which has probably given up on getting anything useful (other than *maybe* helping out the Hungarians with transport))
2) Switzerland (who just plain isn't) and
3) S/F Union. Hmm.
I originally had a story arc where the Union intervened in Norway on "humanitarian" grounds (lack of heat in an awful winter) after it was cut off from Germany and coal supplies were shut off, but took it out after realising just how much wood the Finns were stockpiling at the same point OTL. It just isn't plausible - the border is no doubt very porous to the right people, but that's as far as I think the Swedes would let things go.

Stalin did not like to gamble.
Not totally true, but he did like to stack the deck in his favour first.

One thing that would be interesting to see is the future of Kingdom of Yugoslavia. While political and ethnic tensions would still plague it to a certain degree, not to mention Italy at the doorstep eyeing Dalmatian coast and the islands, it would certainly be in a much better shape overall.
It would be interesting, but just too much for me to write I think. Yugoslavia will certainly do very nicely out of the much shorter and smaller European war, but writing about it would require a ton of research about Yugoslavia pre-WW2 that I just don't have time to do.

I'm with the Marshal on this as I really don't see what Italy could get by joining at this point. The allies will not view Austria as innocent and what to occupy it for rebuilding German society/culture. Whilst the landing is unlikely to be contested I'm not sure if it will be worth it.
Yes, but this is Benito Mussolini we're talking about here. Cool, dispassionate weighing of what is actually in the Italian national interest isn't exactly his strong suit. I'm actually slightly uncomfortable that he hasn't done anything really stupid in the last 18 months - it feels right on the edge of the plausible.

Options 2/Memel makes the most sense as it was part of Lithuania so there would be no more allied objection then when the rest of the Baltic's were invaded.
The critical part is that it is something they really can take quickly, virtually without a fight - East Prussia would leave them with a lot of Germans, and Poland with a lot of Poles. Neither are hugely attractive prospects in the long term in a pre-Barbarossa world where a buffer zone isn't seen as a critical requirement.


If memory is correct Denmark and Norway are isolated from the Reich at this point, and I think there is a clear path to Berlin.
The real obstacle to getting to Berlin is petrol supplies. The British are a couple of days away from having enough petrol to move, but will have distribution problems when they do. Denmark and Norway are now isolated except by sea however, as the British control a stretch of Baltic coast.
 
2nd January 1942

Meanwhile, in Moscow a similar meeting is taking place where STAVKA are presenting revised plans to Stalin. Four options are presented:

Please change STAVKA to GenShtab (General Staff). OTL, stavka was an *emergency* supreme command during WWII; it was formed the day after German invasion (June 22, 1941) and dissolved in the Fall of 1945. There was no stavka during any other Soviet wars, declared or undeclared. So it does not make sense for it to exist in TTL, certainly not before the USSR joins the war, and probably not even afterwards. And in any case, the plans pdf27 describes would be made by the General Staff rather than by any emergency command structure.
 
Please change STAVKA to GenShtab (General Staff). OTL, stavka was an *emergency* supreme command during WWII; it was formed the day after German invasion (June 22, 1941) and dissolved in the Fall of 1945. There was no stavka during any other Soviet wars, declared or undeclared. So it does not make sense for it to exist in TTL, certainly not before the USSR joins the war, and probably not even afterwards. And in any case, the plans pdf27 describes would be made by the General Staff rather than by any emergency command structure.

... But STAVKA is fun a for acronym to say!
 
Please change STAVKA to GenShtab (General Staff). OTL, stavka was an *emergency* supreme command during WWII; it was formed the day after German invasion (June 22, 1941) and dissolved in the Fall of 1945. There was no stavka during any other Soviet wars, declared or undeclared. So it does not make sense for it to exist in TTL, certainly not before the USSR joins the war, and probably not even afterwards. And in any case, the plans pdf27 describes would be made by the General Staff rather than by any emergency command structure.

Wikipedia seems to disagree?

wikipedia said:
The Stavka (Russian: Ставка) was the high command of the armed forces in the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. In Imperial Russia Stavka refers to the administrative staff, and to the General Headquarters in the late 19th Century Imperial Russian armed forces and subsequently in the Soviet Union.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stavka
 
If you actually read the article you are linking you would find that it says that it was formed the day after the German invasion.
 
Looks like the vultures are circling alright. I can't imagine Britain or France would be too impressed with Italy or the USSR sticking their oar in at this point, especially with Mussolini's past actions. How are the high command in both countries viewing Poland right now? Still a valued ally or annoyed for forcing their hand due to their uprising?
 
Regarding Austria it will no doubt be separated from Germany again. Given the OTL evolution of the view of Austria as the Nazi's first victim, we could see any number of scenarios come into play. The Churchillian idea of a Danubian Confederation, ironically enough, in TTL could come into play now that the Hungarians are in Vienna and likely to have some kind of role in how the post-war settlement is shaped. Mussolini will probably be strongly opposed to that though!
 
Please change STAVKA to GenShtab (General Staff). OTL, stavka was an *emergency* supreme command during WWII; it was formed the day after German invasion (June 22, 1941) and dissolved in the Fall of 1945. There was no stavka during any other Soviet wars, declared or undeclared. So it does not make sense for it to exist in TTL, certainly not before the USSR joins the war, and probably not even afterwards. And in any case, the plans pdf27 describes would be made by the General Staff rather than by any emergency command structure.
Good catch, edited. Thanks.

How are the high command in both countries viewing Poland right now? Still a valued ally or annoyed for forcing their hand due to their uprising?
Both, I'm assuming.

Actually reading that article and looking at the translation of the Russian wikipedia article the sense one gets is that Stavka is the equivalent of a Supreme Command/Staff in the Field. Hence there was a Stavka in 1914-1918 and 1941-1945. But none in 1918-1941.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Staff_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_the_Russian_Federation is actually more helpful here:
  1. Red Army formed in 1918, started more or less from scratch in many ways rather than as a successor organisation to the Russian Army.
  2. Mikhail Frunze appointed as Chief of Staff in 1924, at which point the RKKA General Staff started to come into being.
  3. Renamed as the General Staff in 1935.
  4. Renamed as Stavka in 1941.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Looks like the vultures are circling alright. I can't imagine Britain or France would be too impressed with Italy or the USSR sticking their oar in at this point, especially with Mussolini's past actions. How are the high command in both countries viewing Poland right now? Still a valued ally or annoyed for forcing their hand due to their uprising?
I don't think they would care too much if Italy joined in. Italy hasn't exactly been friendly to Germany ITTL. Particularly over the last year or so. They've been neutral with a slight preference for the Entente. The USSR joining in however, would piss off literally everyone
 
I originally had a story arc where the Union intervened in Norway on "humanitarian" grounds (lack of heat in an awful winter) after it was cut off from Germany and coal supplies were shut off, but took it out after realising just how much wood the Finns were stockpiling at the same point OTL. It just isn't plausible - the border is no doubt very porous to the right people, but that's as far as I think the Swedes would let things go.


The real obstacle to getting to Berlin is petrol supplies. The British are a couple of days away from having enough petrol to move, but will have distribution problems when they do. Denmark and Norway are now isolated except by sea however, as the British control a stretch of Baltic coast.

The primary question is whether the Nazi troops would intervene against Norwegians in the major cities getting enough wood to keep people warm in the winter. Note, other significant cities in Norway would actually require more travel than Oslo, there is a *significant* amount of forest less than 5 miles north of the Oslo city center (at least today). Some of the more farming oriented communities have it worse.

Also makes you wonder the last time the Nazis in Norway got any sort of significant Petrol...

The problem is that control of the Baltic Coast is not useful for supplying troops until Norway and Denmark fall. So useful for setting this up for *post-war*, but not in getting Goerring to surrender.
 
Looks like the vultures are circling alright. I can't imagine Britain or France would be too impressed with Italy or the USSR sticking their oar in at this point, especially with Mussolini's past actions. How are the high command in both countries viewing Poland right now? Still a valued ally or annoyed for forcing their hand due to their uprising?
The questions that hasn't really been answered is "How many Entente troops have died since the restart of conflict?" and "Did the Entente high command realize just how shattered the Nazis were? (Did they think it was going to be *this* easy). Given how fast things have gone, while not ideal, it isn't clear that it would have been *that* much easier in April. And how long until they find out that the Soviets intended to attack in February.

the ATL of this TL where the Entente wait until April will be fascinating, The Soviets definitely get Warsaw, the question is whether they get more or less of Germany than they did in OTL.
 
Regarding Austria it will no doubt be separated from Germany again. Given the OTL evolution of the view of Austria as the Nazi's first victim, we could see any number of scenarios come into play. The Churchillian idea of a Danubian Confederation, ironically enough, in TTL could come into play now that the Hungarians are in Vienna and likely to have some kind of role in how the post-war settlement is shaped. Mussolini will probably be strongly opposed to that though!
Can you provide more information on Churchill's plan for a Danubian Confederation?
 
Can you provide more information on Churchill's plan for a Danubian Confederation?

Sure. You can read how Stalin and Churchill viewed it from OTL 1943-1944 here:

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945Berlinv01/d330

Churchill's idea didn't seem to get very well developed and seemed to change a bit (at one point Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland were to be in it and then later Austria, Hungary and southern Germany - most likely because the Czechoslovaks, Poles and Stalin were all opposed to Poland and Czechoslovakia being in any confederation with Hungary and Austria)
 
One thing that would be interesting to see is the future of Kingdom of Yugoslavia. While political and ethnic tensions would still plague it to a certain degree, not to mention Italy at the doorstep eyeing Dalmatian coast and the islands, it would certainly be in a much better shape overall.

First of all, political reforms which started with Cvetković-Maček agreement are bound to continue, so along with Croatians, Slovenes and possibly Macedonians are going to gain greater autonomy then before. This would go a long way in defusing many ethnic tensions, and without absolute bloodletting that was Yugoslavia in WW2, many of the hatreds still plaguing the region would never exist. Add to that the fact that Yugoslavia is not likely to lose anywhere between 1 to 1.7 million people as happened IOTL, and not suffer complete annihilation of infrastructure and industry due to heavy guerilla fighting, and it is certainly going to be miles ahead of where it was IOTL.

Of course Italy is a problem, and while the British and the French are occupied with the Germans, they are unlikely to either be willing or able to help. Though, Royal Yugoslav Military was starting to rearm itself in the late 30ies, and while OTL they never had enough time to do it properly, here situation is certainly better off, if only by a couple percent.

From the top of my head, they had a relatively decent plans, and could would be able to get most of the weapons and other equipment from the domestic souces. So, aviation wise licence production of Bristol Blenheim, Hawker Hurricane Mk.I , Do-17 (not sure about this TBH), and pride of Interwar Yugoslav aviation industries the IK-3 fighter, which had roughly the same performance as early Soviet Yak-1 models. Two modern destroyers were also built in domestic shipyards, and two more were under construction, though they were reliant on foreign sources for propulsion and armament. Before the war even started Poland gave license for production of 46/47 mm light mortars, and full scale production of both weapons and ammunition was prepared. Factory was built in Travink for production of large caliber Artillery barrels and for complete production of modern AT guns. They have also obtained a license and commenced the preparation of the production of Škoda 47 mm AT Guns, the first of which were to be made by the end of October of 1941. Hydraulics factory was built, and from the end of 1940 all the aircraft made had domestic hydraulics, as well as all motor vehicles. Two truck factories were also built in Rakovica and Kragujevac respectively, though IOTL they only were building vehicle from kits, with full domestic production to start at later date.

Modernization of heavy artillery was also planned, and WW1 vitage howitzers 10 cm Skoda M.14/M.16 went through a refit, with longer barrels and stronger breeches fitted. The artillery tubes were obtained from Czechoslovakia at first, but they were also the last artillery weapons which would be modernized with components purchased abroad. All further modernization was to be made with components made in already mentioned facility in Travnik.

In regards to AT weapons, modernization was planned for old 8 cm M 05/8 field guns into modern AT guns by replacing the old carriage with a new two-wheel carriage, replacing the hydraulics and installing a stronger breech to allow using the new M 28. AP ammunition. In addition to AT weapons already imported, mostly Czech 36/47mm guns, serial production of 47mm model was also planned, and license was procured.

Also building of a tire production plant at the Bata plant in Borovo was started for trucks and bicycles, though I am unaware how far they actually got with that. Factory for production of poison gas and chemical biological agents was completed in Krusevac in late March 1941. The serial production (or at least assembly) of aircraft at the newly built factories of Albatros (Sremska Mitrovica), Utva (Pancevo) and Obilićevo Krusevac (only light training aircraft and gliders) began in early 1941. Production of modern radio stations in Čačak, suitable for military use and field phones were already manufactured there. In addition to aircraft, IMR has started mass production of truck engines, I believe based on a light Chevrolet truck design. All this was done in 1939, 1940 and early 1941, and more time goes by, Royal Yugoslav Armed forces might become a respectable force, especially once internal political problems are slowly resolved.

Not to mention that Yugoslavia does have access to world markets, and while there will still be competition for many items and resources Yugoslavia needs, and it will be outbid often, a trickle would still help a lot. Not to mention that as war drags to its conclusion, France once again becomes availlable as a supplier, so Tanks and other things may become availlable in large quantites and at lower prices.

That is in addition to general modernization of the armed forces, with complete replacement of Oxen with Horses for artillery and supply towing. Some formations were also supposed to be motorized along the French model I believe, though that seems to be replacement of horses with trucks, not complete motorization of the infantry. Also, greater use of bicycles was planned, in both Infantry and Cavalry units, large scale production of ZB Vz.26 LMG, as well general increase in production of various supplies and necessary war materiel.

Just my 2 cents ;).
As the war winds down there will be a lot of early war French Tanks like the H39, R39, FCM 36, Char D2, Somua 35 and Earlier versions of the Char B1 as by this point France is using the equivalent of the B1 ter model with the two man turret although these tanks are far from great they are good enough for a minor countries like Yugoslavia and it is very possible that just like irl when the US offloaded large amounts of obsolete Sherman's the French could do something similar as after WW1 they sold a massive amount of FT-17s.
 
Churchill's idea didn't seem to get very well developed and seemed to change a bit (at one point Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland were to be in it and then later Austria, Hungary and southern Germany - most likely because the Czechoslovaks, Poles and Stalin were all opposed to Poland and Czechoslovakia being in any confederation with Hungary and Austria)
The Austro-Hungarian Empire hiding behind a false moustache then?
 
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