A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by pdf27, Nov 12, 2016.

  1. ngf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    Question for pdf. What is the current US policy in regards to the Japanese war in China? Has the French ability to keep the Japanese out of Indochina so far ITTL caused the US to stay neutral or just slowed down the pace at which the US increased its pressure against Japan?
     
  2. ngf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    I just checked on what pdf had last written about the Bearn.

    9th September 1941
    The aircraft carrier Bearn arrives at Esquimalt for an extended refit expected to take 18 months. She is to have her boilers replaced, the reciprocating engines driving the outer shafts replaced with new steam turbines, and her gun armament replaced with 15 twin 40mm Bofors mounts of the Dutch Hazemayer type. The deletion of the anti-surface ship armament is controversial, but accepted by the MN since it frees up sufficient topweight for an air search radar to be fitted.​

    The would make her unavailable until March 1943. In the OTL, the Joffre was not scheduled to be placed in service until 1943, but pdf has implied in the forum that she likely was scrapped on the slipways. This leaves France without any operational aircraft carriers. I wonder if the British would be willing to lease one of their aircraft carriers to the French until a replacement can be procured, or at least let the French deploy some of their Aeronavale squadrons on their carriers.
     
  3. naraht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2010
    The Pressure against Japan has certainly been less successful than iOTL because the Dutch are still selling oil to the Japanese. With the Dutch needing funds to pay for keeping the Germans out of the Netherlands (rather than being a week government in exile), they kept selling. the cupboards are still running low for money for the Japanese though...
     
    quaelegit likes this.
  4. naraht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2010
    Thanx...

    I believe that pdf has also said that while the UK has everything in the area(except the sub base) at Singapore, the French are split between FIC and Singapore. And even a destroyed French fleet is not as good as what they had iOTL where they got control of FIC from Vichy France.

    And no clue on the Dutch Fleet. We do have a very good clue on the Belgian Fleet, they don't have one. :) And I can't imagine the British asking the Norwegians to keep any part of their fleet outside of Europe.
     
  5. Hecatee Traveller of the pasts

    Joined:
    May 20, 2007
    Location:
    Belgium
    Another question is wheter the British carriers have any real experience operating togheter as a single force ?
     
  6. Orcbuster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Norwegian military fleet is gone as well. Nortraship however was the largest merchant navy in the world and has been sailing globally for the entente since it was established in april 1940 with 1000 ships and 30000 sailors.
     
  7. ngf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    According to latest pdf post, the modern French battleships Jean Bart and Richelieu are at Singapore with the British fleet and Force X (older battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, 1 light cruiser, and 3 destroyers) was at Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam. As I had written previously, due to the reduced threat of Italy joining Germany, I believe that the French would have sent Force X back to the Mediterranean and replaced it with the more modern Force de Raid (battleships Strasbourg and Dunkerque, 3 light cruisers, and 9 heavy destroyers). There was another light cruiser that was permanently stationed in FIC.

    According to the site http://niehorster.org/016_netherlands/41-12-08/navy_nei-sqdn.html, the Dutch East Indies Squadron in the OTL as of 12 December 1941 consisted of:
    • 3 light cruisers (plus 1 in overhaul)
    • 6 destroyers (plus 1 in overhaul)
    • 10 submarines (plus 5 in overhaul)
    • 1 submarine tender
    In addition, according to Janes Fighting Ships 1939, the Dutch had one light cruiser under construction and two light cruisers on order. I suspect work on these three ships have halted in TTL.
     
  8. avernite Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2014
    I think the real reason why the British will win is that the seas around Singapore and FIC are the seas for which the armoured carrier was designed, and the unarmoured carrier was not: a bomber will get through, because there are too many land bases (on whichever side). A first fight between the RN and IJN would see both sides hammered, but the British carriers will be in need of a refit and the Japanese carriers will be sunk (on average).
     
    Gladsome, fhaessig, ngf and 1 other person like this.
  9. Artaxerxes A terrible pain in my diodes

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Location:
    Augusta, Britannia Superior
    Japans attitude towards Radar is whats going to sink them.

    That and the UK's subs.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
    Gladsome and fhaessig like this.
  10. HJ Tulp Vice Admiral, Eutopian Navy

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2007
    Location:
    Amsterdam, the Netherlands
    That is only the DEI squadron. There were more units fighting the Germans and Italians. I've tried to gather up a list of all Dutch units on 10 May 1940 that were available or under construction.

    Commissioned:

    2 Java-class light cruisers.
    1 De Ruyter-class light cruiser.
    2 Tromp-class light cruisers (note: this includes HrMs Jacob van Heemskerck which was towed to England in May 1940 and completed there as a AA cruiser).
    8 Van Galen-class destroyers
    7 Colonial submarines, build in the 1920s
    4 Colonial submarines, build in the 1930s
    5 'European' submarines, build in the 1920s
    4 submarines, build in the early 1930s
    6 submarines, build in the late 1930s

    Note: I have not included all small and auxilary units.

    Under construction:

    2 Eendracht-class light cruisers, laid down in 1939.
    2 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, nearly completed (note: this includes HrMs Isaac Sweers which was towed to England in May 1940 and completed there)
    1 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, laid down early 1939.
    1 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, launched in October 1939.
    3 submarines, nearing completion
    6 minesweepers, nearly finished with construction at Amsterdam.
    3 MTBs, almost ready for launch in 1940.

    Now there will certainly be some delays and some damage done during Fall Gelb, but I do think that the Dutch government will decide to finish these ships, even in England if possible. For one thing they know that the Indies will have to be defended and also because the surface units will be needed to escort convoys to the Netherlands and fight German litoral units.
     
    Gladsome and Nurhaci like this.
  11. ngf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    The British carriers have been concentrated at Singapore for about a year. This would give them plenty of time to practice as a group.
     
  12. Driftless Geezer

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2011
    Location:
    Out in the Driftless Area
    IF(big if) I recall, that was a fleet problem the US had to work through in the mid 30's. Traditionally the balance of the fleet mirrored the movements of the Battleships (as the main offensive weapon). With Carriers having to change direction to head into the wind to launch and retrieve aircraft, the choreography got much more complicated and required close coordination to complete the evolutions efficiently and safely for all of the support ships in the fighting group. The greater the number of Carriers, the more challenging the choreography would become
     
  13. Lascaris Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2005
    The can try to buy additional ships from the United States.
     
  14. Orcbuster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Both France and the UK have probably already done so in a deal similar to the OTL Destroyers for bases agreement?
     
  15. pdf27 Making sparks fly!

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2007
    Location:
    EGWN
    In theory yes, in practice it's a drop in the bucket. In 1940 the Panzers apparently refuelled from captured petrol stations, here that isn't an option. The amount of fuel within the German economy is simply grossly inadequate.

    Of course. As you well know it's completely impossible to invade Germany without first capturing Heligoland.

    If the Force de Raid head to the far east, they would go to Singapore not Indochina. The grand strategy is essentially that the South China Sea is a giant mousetrap - lots of friendly air, radar and submarine cover, and the Japanese have to go into it to fight the Entente fleets. Putting any significant modern forces into Indochina is asking for them to be sunk in detail against locally superior forces in a surprise attack. That just isn't possible in Singapore.

    Like the Army .vs. Navy rugby match on steroids?

    The Japanese might think so. Stalin is building a spur off the trans-Siberian explicitly designed to support an invasion of Manchuria, so may have other ideas.

    Jinnah is a bit player ITTL - his big chance came when Congress boycotted the existing consultative parts of the British government of India, and he could move in and take over. Here, Congress came back quickly enough that they're still dominant, and a shorter war also means that the British are less reliant on Muslim Indian soldiers: the Indian army has a much higher profile among the UK populace because they're fighting in France and now Germany, but in sheer numbers they're much smaller than OTL, simply because they couldn't train up enough in time.

    Tiso waited too long, but they Army isn't exactly in control - the French told him Osusky was coming, and that he had their backing. Their choices now are essentially to do what he tells them to, or to throw in their hand with the Germans - which refusing to let his aircraft land, shooting it down, arresting him on arrival, etc. would have been taken as by the French. They waited too long too, and now they really have very little option but to do what they're told and hope that things pan out OK.

    Not immediately - the British and French are going to want to cut spending after the war, and the land forces are going to be first on the chopping block. The equipment they have now is clearly good enough, so there won't be any new kit for a few years until it starts wearing out.

    None were. This is Hungary trying to get bargaining chips for the expected postwar peace conference.

    Not to mention the submarine pickets.

    As OTL, he's currently retired from the US Army and employed by the Philippine armed forces.

    Neutral, but very unfriendly - the Japanese can still buy things, but they aren't on the Christmas Card List.

    The Japanese have started sending radar to sea with good results...
     
    Beetle63, Rath, AndyF and 5 others like this.
  16. Artaxerxes A terrible pain in my diodes

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Location:
    Augusta, Britannia Superior
    They did in otl as well but even in the middle of a war they never really used it to full potential or learned why it was a fabulous idea.
     
  17. Xgentis Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Location:
    Belgium, Wallonia
    I agree after the war the Entente will cut spending and focus on restarting the civilians economy and rebuild the damages caused by the war. I do think they'll export their military surplus to get some cash.
     
  18. pjmidd Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2015
    Problem is getting people to use it correctly , the low status of the operators and even lower commanders opinion of it should not have been changed much by your POD.
     
  19. KACKO Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2010
    Well, long as long. Allies are not in Brno or even Prague yet. French decided they got in Osusky good trump card to push Slovaks in rather sooner then later.

    Tiso as such will be very likely public political non entity post war but still relatively well remebered at home.
    Interesting would be what would happen to Slovak Hlinka People Party.

    Well Slovak republic as such didn’t probably had much choice anyway. They probably had feeling in case of Allied victory it is end of independent Slovakia. Throwing everything with Germans at that stage, especially with Hungarian declaration of war against Germany is not solution. For them waiting is actually pretty good choice. Germans will be even more weakened, with even less reserves in Protectorate.
    Winter is bad. So why not to wait. Seems now it is French who wants Slovaks to jump in more then Slovaks wants to go in even if they need to be “pushed”. I guess some promises will be made. After all why to bleed if they not gain nothing and loss of independence is basically guaranteed by restoration of Czechoslovakia.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  20. dmg86 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2014
    I don't think the Bearn really amounts to much. Probably would serve a function similar to a escort carrier. It's top speed about 21.5 knots would really limit it. The french were building a new carrier of about 20000 tons and 40 aircraft but work was slowed due to the start of the war.
     
    SsgtC likes this.