A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Question for pdf. What is the current US policy in regards to the Japanese war in China? Has the French ability to keep the Japanese out of Indochina so far ITTL caused the US to stay neutral or just slowed down the pace at which the US increased its pressure against Japan?
The Pressure against Japan has certainly been less successful than iOTL because the Dutch are still selling oil to the Japanese. With the Dutch needing funds to pay for keeping the Germans out of the Netherlands (rather than being a week government in exile), they kept selling. the cupboards are still running low for money for the Japanese though...
 
I just checked on what pdf had last written about the Bearn.

9th September 1941
The aircraft carrier Bearn arrives at Esquimalt for an extended refit expected to take 18 months. She is to have her boilers replaced, the reciprocating engines driving the outer shafts replaced with new steam turbines, and her gun armament replaced with 15 twin 40mm Bofors mounts of the Dutch Hazemayer type. The deletion of the anti-surface ship armament is controversial, but accepted by the MN since it frees up sufficient topweight for an air search radar to be fitted.​

The would make her unavailable until March 1943. In the OTL, the Joffre was not scheduled to be placed in service until 1943, but pdf has implied in the forum that she likely was scrapped on the slipways. This leaves France without any operational aircraft carriers. I wonder if the British would be willing to lease one of their aircraft carriers to the French until a replacement can be procured, or at least let the French deploy some of their Aeronavale squadrons on their carriers.
Thanx...

I believe that pdf has also said that while the UK has everything in the area(except the sub base) at Singapore, the French are split between FIC and Singapore. And even a destroyed French fleet is not as good as what they had iOTL where they got control of FIC from Vichy France.

And no clue on the Dutch Fleet. We do have a very good clue on the Belgian Fleet, they don't have one. :) And I can't imagine the British asking the Norwegians to keep any part of their fleet outside of Europe.
 

Hecatee

Donor
Another question is wheter the British carriers have any real experience operating togheter as a single force ?
 
And no clue on the Dutch Fleet. We do have a very good clue on the Belgian Fleet, they don't have one. :) And I can't imagine the British asking the Norwegians to keep any part of their fleet outside of Europe.

Norwegian military fleet is gone as well. Nortraship however was the largest merchant navy in the world and has been sailing globally for the entente since it was established in april 1940 with 1000 ships and 30000 sailors.
 
Thanx...

I believe that pdf has also said that while the UK has everything in the area(except the sub base) at Singapore, the French are split between FIC and Singapore. And even a destroyed French fleet is not as good as what they had iOTL where they got control of FIC from Vichy France.

And no clue on the Dutch Fleet. We do have a very good clue on the Belgian Fleet, they don't have one. :) And I can't imagine the British asking the Norwegians to keep any part of their fleet outside of Europe.

According to latest pdf post, the modern French battleships Jean Bart and Richelieu are at Singapore with the British fleet and Force X (older battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, 1 light cruiser, and 3 destroyers) was at Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam. As I had written previously, due to the reduced threat of Italy joining Germany, I believe that the French would have sent Force X back to the Mediterranean and replaced it with the more modern Force de Raid (battleships Strasbourg and Dunkerque, 3 light cruisers, and 9 heavy destroyers). There was another light cruiser that was permanently stationed in FIC.

According to the site http://niehorster.org/016_netherlands/41-12-08/navy_nei-sqdn.html, the Dutch East Indies Squadron in the OTL as of 12 December 1941 consisted of:
  • 3 light cruisers (plus 1 in overhaul)
  • 6 destroyers (plus 1 in overhaul)
  • 10 submarines (plus 5 in overhaul)
  • 1 submarine tender
In addition, according to Janes Fighting Ships 1939, the Dutch had one light cruiser under construction and two light cruisers on order. I suspect work on these three ships have halted in TTL.
 
I think the real reason why the British will win is that the seas around Singapore and FIC are the seas for which the armoured carrier was designed, and the unarmoured carrier was not: a bomber will get through, because there are too many land bases (on whichever side). A first fight between the RN and IJN would see both sides hammered, but the British carriers will be in need of a refit and the Japanese carriers will be sunk (on average).
 
According to the site http://niehorster.org/016_netherlands/41-12-08/navy_nei-sqdn.html, the Dutch East Indies Squadron in the OTL as of 12 December 1941 consisted of:
  • 3 light cruisers (plus 1 in overhaul)
  • 6 destroyers (plus 1 in overhaul)
  • 10 submarines (plus 5 in overhaul)
  • 1 submarine tender
In addition, according to Janes Fighting Ships 1939, the Dutch had one light cruiser under construction and two light cruisers on order. I suspect work on these three ships have halted in TTL.

That is only the DEI squadron. There were more units fighting the Germans and Italians. I've tried to gather up a list of all Dutch units on 10 May 1940 that were available or under construction.

Commissioned:

2 Java-class light cruisers.
1 De Ruyter-class light cruiser.
2 Tromp-class light cruisers (note: this includes HrMs Jacob van Heemskerck which was towed to England in May 1940 and completed there as a AA cruiser).
8 Van Galen-class destroyers
7 Colonial submarines, build in the 1920s
4 Colonial submarines, build in the 1930s
5 'European' submarines, build in the 1920s
4 submarines, build in the early 1930s
6 submarines, build in the late 1930s

Note: I have not included all small and auxilary units.

Under construction:

2 Eendracht-class light cruisers, laid down in 1939.
2 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, nearly completed (note: this includes HrMs Isaac Sweers which was towed to England in May 1940 and completed there)
1 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, laid down early 1939.
1 Gerard Callenburgh-class destroyer, launched in October 1939.
3 submarines, nearing completion
6 minesweepers, nearly finished with construction at Amsterdam.
3 MTBs, almost ready for launch in 1940.

Now there will certainly be some delays and some damage done during Fall Gelb, but I do think that the Dutch government will decide to finish these ships, even in England if possible. For one thing they know that the Indies will have to be defended and also because the surface units will be needed to escort convoys to the Netherlands and fight German litoral units.
 
Another question is wheter the British carriers have any real experience operating togheter as a single force ?
The British carriers have been concentrated at Singapore for about a year. This would give them plenty of time to practice as a group.
 

Driftless

Donor
The British carriers have been concentrated at Singapore for about a year. This would give them plenty of time to practice as a group.

IF(big if) I recall, that was a fleet problem the US had to work through in the mid 30's. Traditionally the balance of the fleet mirrored the movements of the Battleships (as the main offensive weapon). With Carriers having to change direction to head into the wind to launch and retrieve aircraft, the choreography got much more complicated and required close coordination to complete the evolutions efficiently and safely for all of the support ships in the fighting group. The greater the number of Carriers, the more challenging the choreography would become
 
I just checked on what pdf had last written about the Bearn.

9th September 1941
The aircraft carrier Bearn arrives at Esquimalt for an extended refit expected to take 18 months. She is to have her boilers replaced, the reciprocating engines driving the outer shafts replaced with new steam turbines, and her gun armament replaced with 15 twin 40mm Bofors mounts of the Dutch Hazemayer type. The deletion of the anti-surface ship armament is controversial, but accepted by the MN since it frees up sufficient topweight for an air search radar to be fitted.​

The would make her unavailable until March 1943. In the OTL, the Joffre was not scheduled to be placed in service until 1943, but pdf has implied in the forum that she likely was scrapped on the slipways. This leaves France without any operational aircraft carriers. I wonder if the British would be willing to lease one of their aircraft carriers to the French until a replacement can be procured, or at least let the French deploy some of their Aeronavale squadrons on their carriers.

The can try to buy additional ships from the United States.
 
While acknowledging the Germans are desperately short of fuel themselves, under the circumstances, would the Entente forces siphon off (literally and figuratively) what they could from damaged and captured vehicles?
In theory yes, in practice it's a drop in the bucket. In 1940 the Panzers apparently refuelled from captured petrol stations, here that isn't an option. The amount of fuel within the German economy is simply grossly inadequate.

How are the Dutch and British navies acting in concert with the Dutch Army as it moves up the coast? And does Helgioland need to fall?
Of course. As you well know it's completely impossible to invade Germany without first capturing Heligoland.

, by this time I would expect the French to swap out Force X with the Force de Raid (Battleships Strasbourg and Dunkerque, light cruisers Montcalm, Gloire, and George Leygues, and three divisions of Le Fantasque-class heavy destroyers), giving the French a fast modern squadron to patrol in the South China Sea. (As an aside, in June 1940 the French decided to build a major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay, to be completed in 1944. More information can be found at https://clausuchronia.wordpress.com/tag/baie-de-cam-ranh/)
If the Force de Raid head to the far east, they would go to Singapore not Indochina. The grand strategy is essentially that the South China Sea is a giant mousetrap - lots of friendly air, radar and submarine cover, and the Japanese have to go into it to fight the Entente fleets. Putting any significant modern forces into Indochina is asking for them to be sunk in detail against locally superior forces in a surprise attack. That just isn't possible in Singapore.

I actually think we could be heading towards a Japanese Civil War, depending on how the likely final phases of the war in China plays out.
Like the Army .vs. Navy rugby match on steroids?

Is there *any* chance that a Japanese-USSR alliance could come into existance?
The Japanese might think so. Stalin is building a spur off the trans-Siberian explicitly designed to support an invasion of Manchuria, so may have other ideas.

Partition, I think, may still happen. At least, I don't recall seeing anything happening that would change Jinnah's mind regarding the necessity of the exercise.
Jinnah is a bit player ITTL - his big chance came when Congress boycotted the existing consultative parts of the British government of India, and he could move in and take over. Here, Congress came back quickly enough that they're still dominant, and a shorter war also means that the British are less reliant on Muslim Indian soldiers: the Indian army has a much higher profile among the UK populace because they're fighting in France and now Germany, but in sheer numbers they're much smaller than OTL, simply because they couldn't train up enough in time.

Well I think cat is already out of bag here. French military airplane landed on Slovak military airport with top ranking Czechoslovak politician aboard.

Allowing this Slovak army basically committed itself towards allies. With or without Tiso’s approval. Seems you are not totally decided about Tiso so I think it is more likely without Tiso’s approval. He waited too long and Army - maybe under Gen. Catlos command? - took decission int its own hands. Once Osusky landed on Tri Duby he is there not to negotiate, he is there to coordinate, maybe even give backing to Slovak army from political side.
Tiso waited too long, but they Army isn't exactly in control - the French told him Osusky was coming, and that he had their backing. Their choices now are essentially to do what he tells them to, or to throw in their hand with the Germans - which refusing to let his aircraft land, shooting it down, arresting him on arrival, etc. would have been taken as by the French. They waited too long too, and now they really have very little option but to do what they're told and hope that things pan out OK.

They're likely to get the current generation of armor as the French and British reequip with what's under development right now
Not immediately - the British and French are going to want to cut spending after the war, and the land forces are going to be first on the chopping block. The equipment they have now is clearly good enough, so there won't be any new kit for a few years until it starts wearing out.

For the Entente, Hungary's DOW is useful in the short term, but the question is how much do they get post war. The Author hasn't indicated if there were promises given
None were. This is Hungary trying to get bargaining chips for the expected postwar peace conference.

Furthermore, the RN/MN will be operating under friendly MPA cover so they should have a very good idea when/where the Japanese are and can elect to offer battle in conditions most advantageous to the RN/MN (moonless night Swordfish strikes?)
Not to mention the submarine pickets.

Is MacArthur still the big Kahuna? I would assume so.
As OTL, he's currently retired from the US Army and employed by the Philippine armed forces.

Question for pdf. What is the current US policy in regards to the Japanese war in China? Has the French ability to keep the Japanese out of Indochina so far ITTL caused the US to stay neutral or just slowed down the pace at which the US increased its pressure against Japan?
Neutral, but very unfriendly - the Japanese can still buy things, but they aren't on the Christmas Card List.

Japans attitude towards Radar is whats going to sink them.
The Japanese have started sending radar to sea with good results...
 
I agree after the war the Entente will cut spending and focus on restarting the civilians economy and rebuild the damages caused by the war. I do think they'll export their military surplus to get some cash.
 
Tiso waited too long, but they Army isn't exactly in control - the French told him Osusky was coming, and that he had their backing. Their choices now are essentially to do what he tells them to, or to throw in their hand with the Germans - which refusing to let his aircraft land, shooting it down, arresting him on arrival, etc. would have been taken as by the French. They waited too long too, and now they really have very little option but to do what they're told and hope that things pan out.
Well, long as long. Allies are not in Brno or even Prague yet. French decided they got in Osusky good trump card to push Slovaks in rather sooner then later.

Tiso as such will be very likely public political non entity post war but still relatively well remebered at home.
Interesting would be what would happen to Slovak Hlinka People Party.

Well Slovak republic as such didn’t probably had much choice anyway. They probably had feeling in case of Allied victory it is end of independent Slovakia. Throwing everything with Germans at that stage, especially with Hungarian declaration of war against Germany is not solution. For them waiting is actually pretty good choice. Germans will be even more weakened, with even less reserves in Protectorate.
Winter is bad. So why not to wait. Seems now it is French who wants Slovaks to jump in more then Slovaks wants to go in even if they need to be “pushed”. I guess some promises will be made. After all why to bleed if they not gain nothing and loss of independence is basically guaranteed by restoration of Czechoslovakia.
 
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I don't think the Bearn really amounts to much. Probably would serve a function similar to a escort carrier. It's top speed about 21.5 knots would really limit it. The french were building a new carrier of about 20000 tons and 40 aircraft but work was slowed due to the start of the war.
 
There is a cluster of apparent in-jokes that keeps coming up on this thread around the "Unmentionable Pinniped" (which I gather is Operation Sealion), the Frisian Islands, and Heligoland. Take pity on a latecomer: is this the reference to an infamously bad AH it sounds like?
 

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
There is a cluster of apparent in-jokes that keeps coming up on this thread around the "Unmentionable Pinniped" (which I gather is Operation Sealion), the Frisian Islands, and Heligoland. Take pity on a latecomer: is this the reference to an infamously bad AH it sounds like?

In any AH victory of the UK over Germany Heligoland must become a British territory.........

Likewise the Dutch must alway conduct an island hopping campaign along the coast ans claim all Fresian speaking lands for themselves
 
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