A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[ObssesedNuker]

For those Americans (and others, I guess. )reading this...

At this point, the remaining distance that the British have to go to get to Berlin is about the same as Sherman's march to the Sea. (Atlanta to Savannah). And the distance from there to Soviet Poland is about the distance that Sherman marched north after he got to Savannah before the end of the War.

(Just a reminder that that most of this War is being fought in an area that isn't even large enough to be considered a Theatre of the US Civil War. )

Well, even leaving aside the difference in supply requirements between a Civil War and WW2 army, when Sherman reached Savannah, there was the US Navy to supply him as he turned to move up along the coast. Then again, the British are likely take Hamburg, Kiel, and the canal intact so I suppose they can substitute...

 

[KACKO]

He's still a liability for the Slovak cause, but is very unlikely to be executed after the war for it. Internal exile in some remote monastery perhaps?

Glad to help with others. Please feel free to confirm from other sources.

As to Tiso. Very likely he will not hang in TTL. What is pissing me is that he was hanged for wrong charges - treason on Czechoslovakia. Deportations and war crimes was only one or two points in his prosecution and not even so important. And for some of them even Benes could be hanged. Treason on Czechoslovakia IMHO and deportations of German civilians as well as mistreatments and deaths of deported. Maybe both of them should be locked into some monestary somewhere in Ruthenia or north eastern Slovakia. Something what is considered ass of the world.

 

[Driftless]

(snip)Then again, the British are likely take Hamburg, Kiel, and the canal intact so I suppose they can substitute...

Considering the sudden shift of the offensive, how well/poorly will the canal have been mined or otherwise damaged?

 

[KACKO]

But if Slovakia gets in as well, then the Hungarians don't have as much leverage. So I honestly don't know if Horthy wants Slovakia in the war or not...

Yeah, took a look to see if there was an equivalent railroad in Europe to the Alcan RR they are building. I *guess* if you wanted to build from Oslo to Arcangelsk ignoring all of the existing Railroad it would be close, but even then, most of rail would be within 100 miles of the coast so it would be easier to get in.

Hungarians still may be able ti hold predominantly Hungarians areas. Maybe not everything they gained after Vienna award 1938 but still more then their had before.
And Slovaks? IMHO They may be if not happy with that at least satisfied over return of predominantly Slovak areas. And happy they do not have to deal with Hungarian minority.

They can still use same pressure to Hungarians for mistreatment of Slovak minority in Hungary as they did OTL in 1939/44 period. Every time Hungarians mistreated Slovak minority Slovaks started negotiation with possibilities of applying same measurement ls to Hungarian minority.

If Horrhy wants Slovaks in war or not is not really his decision. If Tiso will play possum, somebody else will take over as OTL and do what needs to be done. Maybe Catlos, maybe Durcansky, if he is still Minister of Foreign Affairs (if not Salzburg agreements 1940 as OTL). Even OTL Hungarians were considering switching sides but didn’t manage and Slovaks had their Uprising.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

I think you're radically underestimating the effect of economics: India wasn't just the "Jewel in the Crown" of the British Empire, it was just about the only bit apart from Malaya that actually was a net contributor to the UK. Everything else cost more than it brought in

You make a good point about the British Empire, but the example of the Portuguese again raises a question. Were their African possessions a net revenue source or a sink? I don't actually know, but

(1) If they were a source, then one has to ask if other empires such as the French and Dutch were also profitable and could have long outlasted their OTL expiration dates.

(2) If they were a sink, then why didn't the Império Português unravel sooner? (Analogous question for the French and Dutch.) Maybe the British simply weren't very good at exploitation?

In the broadest sense you are certainly correct; I wrote a blog post years ago in which I observed this:

What is the purpose of empire? In fact, this turns out to be an easy one. The one consistent feature of all empires, everywhere, is that commerce between subject regions and the imperial center is controlled so that the imperial center imports goods at below-market rates and exports them to the subject regions at above-market rates. The mailed fist, the satrap, and the gunboat are just enforcement mechanisms for imperial market-rigging.

This economic criterion may sound dry and abstract, but it is the one thing that relatively benign imperia like the British Empire have in common with out-and-out despotisms like the Russian or Persian empires. Thus, for example, the Roman grain ships feeding the population of Rome with wheat harvested by slaves in conquered Egypt; the British destruction of the Indian textile industry so its customers would be effectively forced to buy shoddy cloth made in the English Midlands; and, more crudely, the tribute wagons rolling to Persepolis.

Over time, imperial means of squeezing their subject nations’ economies have become more subtle. Early empires looted; later ones used discriminatory taxation; still later used preferential tariffs (all, and this is the point, enforced by the imperial military).

However, knowing this doesn't give us timescale. We know the Americans insisted on an end to the British system of trade preferences in OTL and got it. We don't know how long it would have taken for parallel systems to disintegrate ITTL.

 

[marathag]

And the distance from there to Soviet Poland is about the distance that Sherman marched north after he got to Savannah before the end of the War.

On April 30, 1865, Sherman’s forces began their final march in their usual two-wing formation. Unlike their earlier marches, however, foraging was prohibited and the men carried only five rounds in their cartridge boxes instead of the usual forty. As the Federals toiled northward, the daily march increased until it reached almost thirty miles per day. Because of the springtime heat, many men straggled, some dropped from heat exhaustion, and a few unfortunates died. Rumor had it that the grueling pace resulted from a bet between some of Sherman’s generals as to who would enter Richmond first. After marching through the battlefields of central Virginia, Sherman’s troops arrived in Washington, D.C., and participated in the Grand Review on May 24.

troops marched 425 miles over 50 days, over 8 miles a day average, very good for leg infantry

 

[What if]

You make a good point about the British Empire, but the example of the Portuguese again raises a question. Were their African possessions a net revenue source or a sink? I don't actually know, but

(1) If they were a source, then one has to ask if other empires such as the French and Dutch were also profitable and could have long outlasted their OTL expiration dates.

(2) If they were a sink, then why didn't the Império Português unravel sooner? (Analogous question for the French and Dutch.) Maybe the British simply weren't very good at exploitation?

In the broadest sense you are certainly correct; I wrote a blog post years ago in which I observed this:



However, knowing this doesn't give us timescale. We know the Americans insisted on an end to the British system of trade preferences in OTL and got it. We don't know how long it would have taken for parallel systems to disintegrate ITTL.

I think it is best to look at a colony by colony basis rather than the entire empire's as the profits from one could/were be sunk into other region that were money sinks. This is meant to be for non-British Empires for added clarification.

I don't believe Algeria was profitable in terms of resource extraction but it does have many French immigrants who hold property and the independence movement there was originally a civil rights movement so it might become a 'Department of France' as opposed to a independent country TTL. And this is probably going to be true of a few other French colonies in Africa.

Nigeria, Tunisia, Chad and Morocco I defiantly see being as independent rather than departments and I think maybe on time scales similar to OTL.

Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are going to be a bit different (as being a department of France is not an option). They did have rubber (and Saigon way a key part of the Opium trade) that made the profitable and the French administration was rather ruthless in destroying rebellions and insurgent movements. However, they are reliant on the support of France proper I'm do not think they'd be as committed as OTL. Without having lost it to Japan ITTL holding onto it won't be seen as part of 'reclaiming France's honor' from the humiliations of WW2. And India could theoretically serve as an inspiration for the people in those places.

Indonesia does have oil which is a profitable and a needed resource. However at the same time I do not know how expensive running all of Indonesia was and it may be possible that rather than Indonesia being all of the Dutch colonies it could be one of several nations that form as the national identity was formed by the hared experience of rule by the Netherlands and Japan and with the latter being increasingly unlikely ITTL I don't think Indonesia is going to encompass everything it did OTL.

The Belgium Congo was never profitable from my understanding and holding onto it was a 'prestige' matter and various people trying to make it profitable and failing. Hopefully without the cold war dichotomy (being either pro Soviet or pro American) and maybe Belgium developing it more it can hopefully be more stable (and by that I include having a government that improves the living standards of its citizens in their as well) than OTL.

The thing to remember about Portugal is that from the 1933 is was under the control of a Authoritarian dictator and that his successors overthrow in a military coup in 1974 is when Portugal gave up its empire. This could have been butterflied by TTL so I will be examining the colonies but since it did not participate in WW2 I lean towards its empire falling in a similar manner to OTL.

I don't think the Portuguese can hang onto Goa and other territories in India due to what happened OTL and TTL's India encompassing Pakistan (consequently having better minority representation) will have a stronger drive for forcing out all colonial powers off the Sub-continent.

Angola had an oil industry that was (and still is) profitable but was also facing an insurgency there that the army officers in the OTL coup were not happy fighting anymore. Whilst I do not know of the profitability of other African possessions of Protgual they were granted independence around the same time so I think its likley they go with Angloa.

East Timor has oil and gas reserves in its territorial waters and experienced independence in similar circumstances to above in independence. However, in OTL it was occupied by Japan during WW2 and then invaded by Indonesia after in gained Independence in 1975 which are unlikely to occur TTL so I think it will be significantly better off economically.

Libya might end up becoming part of Italy proper TTL as Mussolini was encouraging Italian colonists and its independence OTL was down to Italy joining the axis.

I don't see the Italians holding onto Ethiopia as it was an independent nation and considering how relations between Italy and the Entente are not the best (not to mention the Soviets) there could be a lot of international sympathy that could be built up for Ethiopia. Also I don't believe it was profitable.

Italy's occupation of Albania is likely to be viewed less favorably than Ethiopia due to Albania being a European nation and I don't believe it was profitable.

 

[SlideRuleJockey]

On April 30, 1865, Sherman’s forces began their final march in their usual two-wing formation. Unlike their earlier marches, however, foraging was prohibited and the men carried only five rounds in their cartridge boxes instead of the usual forty. As the Federals toiled northward, the daily march increased until it reached almost thirty miles per day. Because of the springtime heat, many men straggled, some dropped from heat exhaustion, and a few unfortunates died. Rumor had it that the grueling pace resulted from a bet between some of Sherman’s generals as to who would enter Richmond first. After marching through the battlefields of central Virginia, Sherman’s troops arrived in Washington, D.C., and participated in the Grand Review on May 24.

"Map snipped"

troops marched 425 miles over 50 days, over 8 miles a day average, very good for leg infantry

Great-Great Grandfather (mom's side) marched with Sherman (3'rd Wisconsin Company K)
Great Grandfather (dad's side) came through Fort Fisher (142'd New York Company D)

It was down right criminal what Sherman did to his men, having them march their collective asses off in order to take part in Grand Review in Washington DC. I think this was just to feed Sherman's own ego. Many men died from heat exhaustion during that awful march in the heat AFTER the war was over.

Sorry for the off topic post......

 

[marcinL]

.

(Just a reminder that that most of this War is being fought in an area that isn't even large enough to be considered a Theatre of the US Civil War. )

If the Brits and French reach Soviet border the area of this theater of war will reach about 1 million sq kilometers.

 

[naraht]

If the Brits and French reach Soviet border the area of this theater of war will reach about 1 million sq kilometers.

What countries are you including in the theater of War?

 

[DracoLazarus]

If the Brits and French reach Soviet border the area of this theater of war will reach about 1 million sq kilometers.

So the size of Egypt ?

 

[marcinL]

What countries are you including in the theater of War?

The western front, which might move all the way to the east - Germany with Austria, Benelux, northern France and, if they drive there, possibly including Denmark, Czechia and half of Poland.

 

[ejpsan]

What is going to be the fate of Austria and the Austrian people?I
I know that Austria likes to portray itself as "Hitler's First Victim" but somehow I don't think that it's going to fly ITTL.
Will they be seen more like willing participants, and if so will they get hit with a share of paying reparations to other countries?

 

[avernite]

Indonesia does have oil which is a profitable and needed resource. However at the same time I do not know how expensive running all of Indonesia was and it may be possible that rather than Indonesia being all of the Dutch colonies it could be one of several nations that form as the national identity was formed by the hared experience of rule by the Netherlands and Japan and with the latter being increasingly unlikely ITTL I don't think Indonesia is going to encompass everything it did OTL.

Ruling Indonesia was pretty similar to latter-day British rule in India. It was the whole point, and probably profitable (if not to the government, then at least to the economy), but there was a general sense that the locals would rule themselves at some point. But with the locals, the Dutch very much meant Javanese (possibly including south Sumatra), Balinese, Atjehans - not Indonesians. And whoever (like the Moluccans) wants to stay with the Netherlands can do so. So I expect decolonisation with massive concessions for Royal Dutch Shell and maximum chopping-up into sub countries. Java will be the leader of the bunch, but if handled halfway competently (by the Dutch) that's more a leader like Iran or Saudia Arabia in the current middle east, not like New Delhi in current India.

 

[What if]

What is going to be the fate of Austria and the Austrian people?I
I know that Austria likes to portray itself as "Hitler's First Victim" but somehow I don't think that it's going to fly ITTL.
Will they be seen more like willing participants, and if so will they get hit with a share of paying reparations to other countries?

There is speculation about restoring the Hapsburgs as a symbol of difference between Austria and Germany and I think it is accepted that it is going to get a full occupation similar to Germany (but shorter in length).

 

[MiniaAr]

That's a bit of a British perspective. You can read French decolonisation as a consequence of the Indochinese war. It showed Algeria how to do it and mightily angered French military (leading to hard repression, operation Resurrection and all)
No defeat in 1940 and no Japanese invasion means that there is a continuity of control in Vietnam whereas the first Indochinese war was essentially a recolonisation war after the French had been completely expelled.
Now, some rationale might have gone too: Indochina was exporting more outside the Empire than in and was never really fully pacified but that's still a different path.

Regarding the French perspective, I think there is going to be a difference made between colonies that were already integrated in some way with mainland France, and protectorates.
North Africa: Morocco and Tunisia will probably be let go (with economic concessions). But there is of course going to be major French effort to keep the "Algerian departments of France", as in OTL. It might be more successful or not.
Indochina: Cochinchina got an autonomous (pro-French) government at some point after the war. A referendum to say in France, or join either Cambodia or Vietnam could be held ITTL. Cambodia, Vietnam (Tonkin+Annam) and Laos as protectorates will likely become independent in this scenario. Alternatively, a federalised "Union Indochinoise" could remain a French-aligned state.
India: as India is becoming independent, I see no chance of France keeping its outposts there, just as in OTL.
Sub-saharan Africa:
Djibouti was kept French until 1977 (as French Somaliland). Just prevent the 1977 from taking place (or use a bit of fraud like in the first two before) and it could be kept.
French West Africa: the 4 communes in Senegal already had representation in the French Parliament. The other colonies will probably go independent.
French Equatorial Africa: Gabon wanted to be transfored into a department at some point.

 

[Tanc49]

North Africa: Morocco and Tunisia will probably be let go (with economic concessions). But there is of course going to be major French effort to keep the "Algerian departments of France", as in OTL. It might be more successful or not.

ITTL veterans get French citizenship and I seem to remember more concessions so that'd help. With no Indochina, any attempt at insurrection might go more smoothly too, France having nothing to prove

Indochina: Cochinchina got an autonomous (pro-French) government at some point after the war. A referendum to say in France, or join either Cambodia or Vietnam could be held ITTL. Cambodia, Vietnam (Tonkin+Annam) and Laos as protectorates will likely become independent in this scenario. Alternatively, a federalised "Union Indochinoise" could remain a French-aligned state.

Tonkin/Annam/Cochinchina are gonna be in some form of union, it's the same country really. Now Laos and Cambodia might object to any arrangement that sees them subjugated by the richer and more populous Vietnam

French West Africa: the 4 communes in Senegal already had representation in the French Parliament. The other colonies will probably go independent.
French Equatorial Africa: Gabon wanted to be transfored into a department at some point

Some form of protectorate federation?

 

[Questerr]

I wonder at what point Goering is going to try to make his hasty escape across the Swiss/Swedish border.

 

[marathag]

I wonder at what point Goering is going to try to make his hasty escape across the Swiss/Swedish border.

This Hills are alive with the sounds of Fat Hermann running across a mountain valley

 

[volantredx]

This Hills are alive with the sounds of Fat Hermann running across a mountain valley

I mean given that he is both wealthy, the Allies are nowhere near as out for blood as they were in OTL, and he can reasonably claim that most of the more insane things were the actions of the SS going rogue he might get out of this if he makes it to a relatively friendly nation. He could likely live the rest of his life in Madrid with very little interruption.