It's October and most of the border between Yugoslavia and Austria is not a good place to fight in winter. The Maribor-Graz route is more forgiving in terms of terrain, but honestly the gains from war would not justify the cost.
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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1938 import figures (from Britain's War Machine) are 1.3 million tons from Tunis, 1.3 million from Algeria, 0.3 million from France, 1.3 million from Sweden, 0.6 million from Norway and 0.4 million tonnes from other sources "not impeded by Germany" in OTL. Essentially ITTL the UK may lose 300,000 tonnes a year of French ore and some or most of the 500,000 tonnes of manufactured iron and steel products they imported from France and Belgium, but they're otherwise pretty much completely unaffected by the Germans due to holding Narvik and France remaining in the war.
It isn't just the blast furnaces which benefit though - the UK is saving a metric ****load of shipping which can go to Norway or North Africa in relatively small convoys rather than having to wait for big convoys to cross the Atlantic to New York, at which point they had to pick up steel or manufactured goods to save on shipping space. That's one of the major reasons the UK is - so far - not seriously affected by the absence of lend-lease and the relative lack of contracts with the US: their prewar supply chains are in a vastly better position. The main things they're missing are finished Iron & Steel products (which realistically would have been hit hard by the war in any case), Butter, Bacon and Eggs - the latter three having largely been imported from Denmark and Holland before the war. Butter can be substituted, but bacon and eggs are likely to be in short supply for the duration.
Ireland can pick up some of the slack though the product quality was thought to be a bit lower
Maybe but did Ireland have a large surplus at that time?
Probably shouldn't have started the Trade War then. Or been even more biased in his neutrality towards the Allies.
Yes, the British OTL approved Sweden exporting their share of the Grängesberg agreement ore to Germany in 1938 - this was mostly due to Britain still being in the depression and favouring domestic industry and raw materials - I am sure now that the war is going on Britain will be wanting all the iron they can get their hands on. Buying from Sweden also has the benefits of denying the same ore to the Germans, and it is possible to pay with sterling or even with coal, coke, fertilizer, surplus war materials (tanks and fighters a generation being phased out but still better than what the Union has), rubber and oil (from the Empire).
The 1927 agreement allowed Britain to import up to 5 million tons, which they never achieved OTL - they intended to reach 2,2 million tons in 1937-38, but fell to 1,5 million tons due to economical concerns.
With the economical concerns out the window with the war, I suspect the British are importing their 5 million tons and putting as much pressure they can to get the Union to limit exports to Germany.
"Pressure" in the sense of "please accept this wheelbarrow full of hard currency for the ore you were thinking about selling to Germany".
Butter is easy to replace with other fats - margarine made from vegetable oils for instance, with oilseeds being non-perishable and so easy to get from elsewhere. Doesn't taste as good, but don't you know that there's a war on?
Others that work is "Yes, Germany can supply you with coal and coke, but if you sell them too much ore, deliveries of oil, rubber, fertilizer, grain, meat, tobacco and colonial goods may be a wee bit delayed. You know, because shipping is needed to supply Ritchie." and "You know, license production of the second latest rolls royce engine for fighters could be possible at NOHAB." and "We could talk to Seversky, I'm sure deliveries could be sped up in the interests of US-British-Union relations." or even "We are interested in a US-British-Union industrial relationship. That steel mill you are trying to get running at Luleå to become independent on imports of steel (primarily German) could be finnished quite a bit earlier that way."
And that is beyond hinting about who is winning the war and who you'd like to have good relations with post-war.
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A few questions.
1)Is trying to buy as much Swedish ore as possible causing problems with other suppliers of ore (like Tunis) not being able to find a market?
2)Can all of that ore be shipped through Narvik or is that too much for the rail line?
3)In winter, the rail line to Narvik is likely to be much harder to get through, does this tip supplies back toward the Nazis?
Also, in regard to the posting of the coin...
I wouldn't imaging that things are *much* different for George VI, iTTL. There have probably been visits to morale boosting visits to France and possibly the Netherlands at different times than iOTL,
1)Is trying to buy as much Swedish ore as possible causing problems with other suppliers of ore (like Tunis) not being able to find a market?
2)Can all of that ore be shipped through Narvik or is that too much for the rail line?
3)In winter, the rail line to Narvik is likely to be much harder to get through, does this tip supplies back toward the Nazis?
Also, in regard to the posting of the coin...
I wouldn't imaging that things are *much* different for George VI, iTTL. There have probably been visits to morale boosting visits to France and possibly the Netherlands at different times than iOTL,
The ore railroad to Narvik could hande 8,35 million of tons of ore yearly from 1928, and the Union is working to make it dual-track, which should increase capacity about 50%. Swedish exports were set to 10,5 million tons yearly from 1927 - if the British are buying 5 million tons, there's plenty of capacity on the ore railroad. In fact, they can buy more than that and wood pulp, paper, wood products, lead, nickel, copper and sugar (all of which the Union has a surplus of and would save them shipping compared to getting the same products from the US and Canada) through Narvik.
No need - the Swedes are bright enough to work out all of that by themselves. Tying them all together is a little bit too... Trumpian... for the Foreign Office at the time.
- Nope - production of iron and steel products is way up (there being a war on and all that), so more ore is needed.
- Not a problem - the double tracking opens at the end of 1941 (i.e. about now, but it hasn't been explicitly mentioned). The extra capacity is mostly about wood and wood products actually - the UK is very heavily dependent on Scandinavian timber for pit props: take that away and they either have to import from Canada or their coal production will crash.
- Not at all - the Narvik railway is the **WINTER** iron ore route. The summer route is/was via the Baltic.
Wood/wood products is a very big one simply because they're so bulky making shipping them across the Atlantic from the nearest alternative supplier (Canada) consume a hell of a lot of shipping. Sugar and Copper represent a worthwhile saving in shipping (the alternative sources are ~5,000 miles away) but the Swedish surplus won't be big enough to make much of a difference - in 1937 the UK imported 2 million tonnes of sugar...
Sweden alone produced 1,9 million tons of sugar beets 1937, so there's some potential. I am sure Finland produced qiute a bit too.
If nothing else, Sweden can export lingonberries. 2 000 tons were exported 1938.
Statistical yearbooks are fun. I wonder who bought the 10 liters of sparkling wine Sweden exported 1938.
If nothing else, Sweden can export lingonberries. 2 000 tons were exported 1938.
Statistical yearbooks are fun. I wonder who bought the 10 liters of sparkling wine Sweden exported 1938.
UK might also have increased deliveries from the French colonial Empire since it won't be going to occupied France
Very true but I think it had more to do with the logistical capability in terms of vessel availability and other higher priorities for purchasing and shipping goods. TTL with no U-boat war and Malaysia and Burma still in British hands, these demand restrictions are likely butterflied away. As will be the Bengal famine. Rationing of some goods will exist TTL as per the excellent analysis above. But won't be nearly as severe as OTL.
Interesting. Though given the short sea distance between Ireland and Britain, I'm sure it would be easier to import food from Ireland than elsewhere. At least in terns of sea-miles per ton.
Unless there were problems using Irish ports? Though goods could be shipped to the North and then via Belfast to the Clyde ports easily if Dublin, Rosslare or Cork were not geared up to take British ships.
I wonder if the products Ireland had a surplus in (milk, butter, bacon and perhaps beef) were simply not as critical in the UK's eyes? Or the UK didn't want to pay for them with goods the Free State wanted? Still seems odd to me.
I think there was a lack of capacity on the main shipping routes between Larne-Stranraer and Belfast -Liverpool. Don't forget that Rolls-Royce had a factory in Larne, Sirocco were manufacturing sub-munitions, Mackies were manufacturing textile machinery, Nestle manufacturing milk powder and a number of the linen mills were manufacturing tropical uniforms and fabric for aircraft manufacture. And the distilleries industrial alcohol. Lots of higher priority stuff being shipped out of Larne and Belfast to Great Britain. Shorts and Harland &Wolff were shipping components, aluminium and steel in but their products tended to be self-delivering at the end of the process.
And de Valera suspected that Britain didn't want to see the Irish economy grow too much or to hold too much British debt. Don't know much about Dublin-Holyhead during WW2 but imagine it would have been hugely more vulnerable to U-boat activity than Larne-Stranraer.
And de Valera suspected that Britain didn't want to see the Irish economy grow too much or to hold too much British debt. Don't know much about Dublin-Holyhead during WW2 but imagine it would have been hugely more vulnerable to U-boat activity than Larne-Stranraer.
Actually it was a balanced trade in OTL, UK wanted food, Ireland wanted coal. Both had lots of ships not usable for anything but coastal trade so no problem there. Any food not bought by the UK would be down to Irish politics, the Free State probably asking far to much over fair value.