A bloodier Bloody Sunday in Derry

Ak-84

Banned
An occupation might have been necessary in the long run, a fragmented Ireland with no central authority was not in the UK's interest.

In OTL the chances of an invasion were; zero, putative raids possible if there was a big enough atrocity (Mrs T getting killed in Brighton might have been it). But if the IRA had the active connivance of the Irish Gov and it was carrying out a bloody campaign in UK with many civilain casulaties, and also getting a lot of material help from the USSR, then ist possible. If you note in the senario I wrote above you had events whichg were bloodier and hardened nationalist opinion; Op Motorman is heavily contested as a result; Irish Gov activly helps the PIRA (at least unofficially), more effective campign, all lead to a senario where an invasion becomes plausible.
 
You are only looking at the Irish Military Strength on the surface, I never said the Irish would win in an Out right battle, but they have more determination than we ever did, I served in the Royal Highland Fusiliers and when we were in Northern Ireland we always assumed our Irish counterparts were un-motivated and poorly trained. But when we had joint war games near Blackpool England, not only were we beaten, but I am ashamed to say we were outclassed by members of the Irish 1st army Infantry. So coming from a British perspective I think an invasion of Ireland would be disastrous. the Irish aren't stupid they wouldn't try for out right battle but instead would lay many small ambushes on the road to Dublin, bridges blown and roads destroyed would also be part of there plan, not to mention that any invasion would quickly turn into a bloodbath for both sides and even if we captured dublin and cork we would never be able to control the countyside, in Northern Ireland alone we had trouble with just 6 small counties, faced with 32 counties and a much more dangerous enemy it would be a disaster. You must also think about the fact that NATO would see Britain as the aggressor as they do in Northern Ireland. NATO would most likley stay neutral but the United stated would have to step in, and it would most likley no be on our side.
 
You are only looking at the Irish Military Strength on the surface, I never said the Irish would win in an Out right battle, but they have more determination than we ever did, I served in the Royal Highland Fusiliers and when we were in Northern Ireland we always assumed our Irish counterparts were un-motivated and poorly trained. But when we had joint war games near Blackpool England, not only were we beaten, but I am ashamed to say we were outclassed by members of the Irish 1st army Infantry. So coming from a British perspective I think an invasion of Ireland would be disastrous. the Irish aren't stupid they wouldn't try for out right battle but instead would lay many small ambushes on the road to Dublin, bridges blown and roads destroyed would also be part of there plan, not to mention that any invasion would quickly turn into a bloodbath for both sides and even if we captured dublin and cork we would never be able to control the countyside, in Northern Ireland alone we had trouble with just 6 small counties, faced with 32 counties and a much more dangerous enemy it would be a disaster. You must also think about the fact that NATO would see Britain as the aggressor as they do in Northern Ireland. NATO would most likley stay neutral but the United stated would have to step in, and it would most likley no be on our side.

WillO

a) Britain had problems with a limited deployment as peacemakers. Trying to keep the balance between two sides when neither armed group wanted us to be there. This TL is talking about a considerably different situation. Its armed military intervention after a few IRA atrocities too far to hit terrorist targets and anybody who tries to stop them. Or at least that's how I read the suggestion.

b) I find "would see Britain as the aggressor as they do in Northern Ireland." very strange. True Irish propaganda has often been very successful but are you seriously suggesting that NATO was pro-fascist in the 1970s & 80s! :confused:

Steve
 

Ak-84

Banned
Okay, how would the occupation go? British would probably garrison Ireland even after returning soverignity to Ireland (if it is ever taken away), perhaps a permenent detachment (brigade sized) in Dublin and another in Cork. Building up the Irish Army to be able to face IRA, continuing anti-Ira ops in Ireland.
 
You are missing my point I think, Britain would defeat any significant military force posed by the Irish Army, but the Irish are not stupid, they would fight a slow war slowly trying to make the cost of the operation too high fir the british public, lets not forget that the British public was always much more inclined to giving NI back the the south even during the bombings in England. Sorry for the long absence I was in Afghanistan.
 
You are missing my point I think, Britain would defeat any significant military force posed by the Irish Army, but the Irish are not stupid, they would fight a slow war slowly trying to make the cost of the operation too high fir the british public, lets not forget that the British public was always much more inclined to giving NI back the the south even during the bombings in England. Sorry for the long absence I was in Afghanistan.

WillO

Just checking if your replying to me? If so we may be slightly at cross purposes. I was referring to the difference between peace keeping and war fighting operations, as well as the presumption that Britain would be presumably intending to destroy targets rather than occupy.

Also my 2nd point was in regards to your reference to "NATO would see Britain as the aggressor as they do in Northern Ireland" which reading now I think I mis-understood. Thought you were saying that NATO thought of us as the aggressor in NI. Instead I suspect you meant the fascist minority in NI that sought to pretend we were the aggressors could fool more of NATO. Not sure this would be the case but admit some enemies would probably seek to make capital from it.

Glad you are [presumably/hopefully] back OK. Sounds pretty grim out there.

Steve
 
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