The Conservatives could promise the moon in 1945, I doubt many voters are going to be swayed by their Damascene conversion to social change.
I trust you know me enough, Garrison, to know I am not a fan of this thread's project. But let's give the conservative devils their due!
Perhaps you know a lot more about the details of British electoral politics in the Depression, but the fact stands OTL several general elections were held, and the Tories held the balance of power after each. Certainly I'd assume they were guilty of certain repressive measures, as we both judge it. But among these I have never heard of vote suppression being among them. Labour had an open field to seize legitimate power in the Commons and yet they did not. Why?
My impression is that fundamentally, the Conservatives expediently bowed to the necessities of the Depression circumstances and did provide a certain degree of social welfare. The American analogy would be that in certain states of the USA (leaving aside the "Solid South" where extreme reaction and a quite high degree of progressivism, barring racial policy, shared the same party in the New Deal era) the Republicans held power at the state level, winning majorities in state houses and governorships despite the national landslide toward the Democrats under FDR--but in these nominally Republican thus oppositional states, the Republicans expediently supported a considerable degree of welfarism too. "Welfare" was a good word in American politics until the 1960s or later, when it became coded for allegedly supporting African Americans and other minorities at the cost of "white" people; the Depression generations were grateful for it. Democrats could embrace this memory of salvation more forthrightly than Republicans could of course.
We also have the example of Bismarck in Germany to consider. It is quite possible for conservative politicians to buy off sufficient numbers of potential hard left voters with judicious doling out of sufficient degrees of quasi-socialistic policies carefully left in control of elites, or so they hope. It is a compromise of their avowed principles, but it can easily be justified in nationalistic terms and typically has been.
Also of course Britain and France controlled vast colonial systems; it is my impression a lot of the hardship of the Depression was shifted onto the backs of colonial subjects, but then both empires undertook "imperial preference" to try to set their separate, parallel systems on a stabilized autarkic basis. This, along with British conservatives having leadership more pragmatic and astute than American, might well complete the explanation of how the nominal Conservative Party held sway despite the massive failure of global capitalism undermining their basic ideological premises.
And finally they could blame American misleadership in that debacle, claiming poor Britain was towed along helplessly into a maelstrom caused by Yankee incompetence at high finance. I don't believe this merely superstructural deficiency of the ramshackle US finance system was by any means the deep cause of the Depression, which IMO was laid in the foundations of how capitalism works and no amount of clever policy dancing by Herbert Hoover's administration (had the basically humanistic Hoover jettisoned his Wall Street cronies like Mellon and dived deep into serious thinking about how best to manage, which he did not do) could have done much to mitigate it either. Perhaps fast and clever action could have significantly lowered the sheer magnitude of the collapse in confidence by capitalists in daring to invest in recovery, but not I think warded off the basic fact that world capitalists were frightened and unwilling to risk their remaining fortunes in the black hole of failure the markets appeared to have turned into. We often encounter people who blithely assume the Depression could be handwaved away; I can't take any such TL seriously. But that would not stop British conservative leaders from pretending it was even so I suppose.
Also having Churchill, who was remembered as the man who sent in the troops to break up strikers as home secretary, trying to play social radical and sell these policies is just not a goer. There are solid reasons why the man who held the country together throughout the war was dumped as soon as it was over.
Again, give the Devil his due. I grew up with a certain image of who Churchill was and what he valued and liked, and it turns out, if I am to believe some recent summary reviews of very private communications he shared with a few cronies much closer to his views than typical (including the King of the UK) that actually the man was a Tallyrandish master of presentation and image, quite capable of dissembling and putting a politic face on a situation when his private and personal reaction was quite something else.
A lot of Churchill hagiography I grew up with the USA for instance assumed that he was a great friend and admirer of Americans; much is made of his own partially US ancestry, and the major evidence lies in his frequent appeals to American public opinion and his apparent close friendship with Franklin Roosevelt as in his wartime correspondence with "former naval person." Forainstance we get the phrase "Iron Curtain" from a later 1940s speech he gave in Missouri. Obviously he was appealing to sway American opinion and thus policy, and his ability to do that, as far as his own speechifying was effective anyway, related to Americans both regarding him as a hero and believing he actually liked us, loved us even.
It seems though, from reading over his shoulder in the few correspondences where he could honestly express himself, he was quite resentful of surging Yankee power, quite impatient with our obstinate insistence on having our way at British Empire expense, just generally sad to be living in an age where his whole career was bent around currying American favor. I'd like the chance to read this stuff firsthand sometime to see if it goes so far as to suggest even his purported admiration of Roosevelt was yet more cynical flattery aiming at manipulating the stupid Yanks to do what they ought to do as he saw it. Even in his OTL published work in his lifetime, where presumably he kept an iron hand on every nuance and every phrase so as not to dispel this painfully crafted illusion of Yankee sycophancy, he let slip, in his memoirs of the war period (published in the later '40s, clearly with an aim at regaining control of 10 Downing which of course he managed to do for some years in the early '50s) his resentment that the USA demanded and got Britain dropping her long time alliance with Japan, and his suspicion that had the Yankees been less insistent on this point the whole Pacific mess might have been averted. (He'd be wrong about that I think, unless the British system could somehow figure out how to dole out quite a lot of imperial preference to keep Japan afloat without their OTL strategy of trying and largely succeeding in conquering China, or perhaps if British alliance had amounted to British blessing of Japan proceeding to do that very thing, perhaps within limits of a defined sphere of influence. But anyway it is a glimpse of his mentality).
So--I do think Churchill was a smart man if not possessed of the values I would admire, and part of his cleverness was the ability to project a chosen self-image at odds with his real personal judgements about things. When Churchill lets loose some ire, as he often did with say the Irish or Indians (perhaps any country whose name starts with an I in English?) we can infer a hell of a lot more is pent up--God help either nation if Churchill could be granted a free wish without personal accountability for the outcomes on the fate of either! He was a master of doublethink, or the somewhat saner if even more morally objectionable ability to clearly separate what he deeply believed from what he wanted people to think he believed. He could keep track of thousands of lies apparently without tripping up, and these abilities in this timeline suggest he could and would remain the face of the Tory party for a decade or more to come, if he doesn't slip up.
The Tories are betting on wooing over military veterans, who surely do comprise a huge percentage of British population (if they have the wit to count the comparable number of women who also put on uniforms and served on many fronts of aid, and devise something to recognize the service of those who never enlisted but did provide vital home front services too, they would have a pitch for nearly everyone) and even narrowly limited to uniformed male service, all these men had close ties to others not directly appealed to whom they could sway.
I am quite sure a solid core of Labourites who take it all with a grain of salt and discount the value of preferences even as they avail themselves of, counting them as only partial reward, will remain solid, and while I have just glanced over the author wikibox of the '45 GE, it does seem the Tory victory is quite thin.
But it has been rare, since 1930 which is as far back as I ever looked, for the House of Commons majority party, even when its majority is quite overwhelming, to be based on actual solid majorities of popular vote. Even in the USA where all but a handful of percents of voters if that many vote for either D or R, it often happens the dominant party still has failed to have a 50%+ majority of popular vote, and it also happens that the party running the House of Representatives can be the one of the two that got less votes--the plurality party can be in the minority of the body! In Britain, there have generally always been third parties in serious contention, who win variable numbers but never (not going back to 1930 anyway) fail to get some MP seats. I observe few cases when the leading two parties involve a flip where the one with the second number of actual votes manages to outnumber the one with the most in seats, but it has just about always been true than the leading party, while indeed being the true plurality party, has just about never had over half the votes cast.
Given dynamics like these, the people who remember Churchill most bitterly are those who have already decided to vote Labour (or conceivably some other party at some point in this evolution) no matter what. They are in the minority in this case, as they would generally be in the 1950s OTL, and are disregarded. The question is, can Churchill present himself as the leader and face of a Conservative coalition that wins a majority of HC seats? He can be hated all the Opposition likes to hate him, that's normal Parliamentary politics I think and fear. He'd still be PM and imagined to represent the majority of British opinion. (I've explained why this is an illusion, but it is true at least it would represent the
plurality of British opinion).