A Bathory Rules Again

Nice. I had my doubts concerning PLC's ability to keep the Khanate under control and I can see we agree. Invade it, plunder, destroy the infrastructure - yes. Keep it? Too far, not with OE ruling the Black Sea.
It is a pity PLC Navy is destroyed, but frankly, it was to be expexted. PLC had no naval tradition, and PLC fleet had to fight against much more powerful enemy who knew those waters better. Right now I think PLC should limit her naval forces in the Black Sea to Cossack boats.
The Crimean disaster will seriously damage king Andreas' reputation. Building a fleet is expensive, and the fleet is lost. Tatar danger was neutralized only for a short time, and PLC army suffered heavy losses. It is a safe bet from that moment the Sejm will prefer to limit PLC activities in the area to defensive actions, keeping Moldova, Vallachia etc. as useful buffer states. So, I think it is time for Andreas to concentrate on PLC internal affairs, diligently listening what is happening abroad.
And a lot is surely happening. How is Russian Time of Troubles going? Will we have Thirty Years War?
I love this TL. Please, keep writing.
 
Nice. I had my doubts concerning PLC's ability to keep the Khanate under control and I can see we agree. Invade it, plunder, destroy the infrastructure - yes. Keep it? Too far, not with OE ruling the Black Sea.
It is a pity PLC Navy is destroyed, but frankly, it was to be expexted. PLC had no naval tradition, and PLC fleet had to fight against much more powerful enemy who knew those waters better. Right now I think PLC should limit her naval forces in the Black Sea to Cossack boats.
The Crimean disaster will seriously damage king Andreas' reputation. Building a fleet is expensive, and the fleet is lost. Tatar danger was neutralized only for a short time, and PLC army suffered heavy losses. It is a safe bet from that moment the Sejm will prefer to limit PLC activities in the area to defensive actions, keeping Moldova, Vallachia etc. as useful buffer states. So, I think it is time for Andreas to concentrate on PLC internal affairs, diligently listening what is happening abroad.
And a lot is surely happening. How is Russian Time of Troubles going? Will we have Thirty Years War?
I love this TL. Please, keep writing.


Thanks for the positive feedback.

I came up with the PLC naval forces, which in hindsight was obviously doomed to fail, as both Andreas I and Grand Hetman Chodkiewicz would have been quite ignorant of naval matters and could easily misjudge how naval power works. I agree that unless the PLC is prepared to commit substanatial forces and money to eliminate the Tatar threat it canot be done. The sejm would not want to give Andreasthat much money.

The next update will deal with the ongoping event sion Russia. The butterflies are now having a large impact.

I'm trying to develop how the religious wars pan out. So far I've got up to the point where Ferdinand II assumes power in Austria. Events are similar, but maybe more favourable to the Protestants in Bohemia and Hungary. I haven't decided how it goes from there; I'm tending towards it being a relatively short struggle limited to the Hapsburg domnions (with maybe Gustavus Adolphus as King of Bohemia instead of Frederick V).
 
GA as the king of Bohemia? Protestant king, of course? It means HRE looses the war, there is no other explanation. However, I have my doubts.
- GA is a king of Sweden, as IOTL. It will be very hard for him to keep control of a quite distant country, with no access to the sea, with long land connection easy to disrupt. I'm not sure Sweden people would agree to that, considering that Bohemian throne means permanent conflict with the Habsburgs.
- There was no war with PLC, so GA had no opportunity to gain fame he had gained there IOTL. Also, a lot of his military reforms were based on experience of fighting the Poles (like more mobile and aggressive cavalry, e.g.), which didn't happen ITTL.
- Without wars with PLC I'm not sure if Swedish noblemen would agree to his reforms arguing that with Sweden being in no danger there is no need to somewhat expensive changes.
IMHO it is fully possible for GA to fight and win your equivalent of 30-years war. He WAS a military genius, after all. He was strong enough to force his will on Swedish people. But to gain AND keep the throne of Bohemia? No chance.
 
GA as the king of Bohemia? Protestant king, of course? It means HRE looses the war, there is no other explanation. However, I have my doubts.
- GA is a king of Sweden, as IOTL. It will be very hard for him to keep control of a quite distant country, with no access to the sea, with long land connection easy to disrupt. I'm not sure Sweden people would agree to that, considering that Bohemian throne means permanent conflict with the Habsburgs.
- There was no war with PLC, so GA had no opportunity to gain fame he had gained there IOTL. Also, a lot of his military reforms were based on experience of fighting the Poles (like more mobile and aggressive cavalry, e.g.), which didn't happen ITTL.
- Without wars with PLC I'm not sure if Swedish noblemen would agree to his reforms arguing that with Sweden being in no danger there is no need to somewhat expensive changes.
IMHO it is fully possible for GA to fight and win your equivalent of 30-years war. He WAS a military genius, after all. He was strong enough to force his will on Swedish people. But to gain AND keep the throne of Bohemia? No chance.


Can I refer you back to Chapter 7 where butterflying away the Swedish Civil War due to Sigismund Vasa's death means that Gustav's father does not usurp his nephew John's place on the throne. Therefore Gustav Adolphus is not king of Sweden, but is Duke Gustav a cousin of King John IV. He will still have an excellent military education in his youth and gains military experience in the wars against Russia (see Chapter 12). I agree that the revolutionary tactics which he developed may not arise as quickly as he has lost the stimulus of fighting against the excellent Polish heavy cavalry.
 
Oops, my mistake. So GA becomes king of Bohemia as more or less a condottiere of very high status? I still have my doubts about Sweden entering the war for Bohemia (too far to care), but I can see GA leading some kind of Protestant International Volunteer Legion or something to help Bohemian protestants opressed by the Habsburgs. He is successful (of course), so grateful Bohemians elect him as their king.
I wonder what PLC will think about it. Catholics are majority there, but without Sigismund III the Counterreformation is much weaker, and even Polish-Lithuanian catholics are more tolerant. The relations between PLC and HRE are decent, but Poles have no reason to help the Habsburgs who are not very popular. PLC is busy with OE and Tatars, is pretty happy with her religious tolerance and religious war is the last thing the Poles want. So I think PLC will observe, trying to learn as much as possible about warfare western style, protect her borders against any incursion from any side or bandits (a normal thing during war), sell weapons to both sides, welcome useful refugees (artisans, merchants, scientists, people with some skills); possible volunteers fighting for both sides (do Lisowczycy exist ITTL?) are strongly discouraged to bring their strife to PLC.
I wonder, is there a possibility of PLC gaining a little from that war? Say, Upper Silesia? Or Duchy of Opole, to be exact? For a short time IOTL (1645-1666) it was under control of the Polish Vasas as a lien. Could it happen here as well? HRE is in trouble, they need money, so they borrow it from PLC giving Opole as a lien; Poles occupy it to at least partially secure Cracow from much too close war (we can even have a rogue mercenary unit raiding PLC and reaching Cracow). After the war, with PLC helping as a mediator to negotiate peace, Poles keep Opole as a new voivodship. Neither HRE nor GA (as Bohemian king) are ready to challenge Poles for it, in fear PLC will ally with their adversary. And Silesians are pretty happy to avoid calamities of war.
 
For the career of GA I was thinking along similar lines, I haven't resolved if the Bohemian throne is offered to someone else first which would deny GA the throne. But I like the idea of GA the King of Bohemia.

I don't think the sejm or Andreas would at this point be interested in foreign adventures after the beating from the Ottomans/Tatars. I think they would evaluate the Hapsburgs as more than strong enough to whip the upstart Bohemians themselves. If there is a Bohemian victory wouldn't the PLC want to prevent the Hapsburgs collapsing as the OE may step into the power vacuum.

I had seen Sweden getting involved but more as a counter weight against Saxony supporting the Hapsburgs i.e. threatening but not actually fighting; I haven't worked out what kind of king John IV is, certainly less adventurous than GA was as king. Involvement of Sweden and/or Denmark would depend on the Spanish Hapsburgs getting involved in Germany. If Frederick V doesn't become King of Bohmeia the religious wars may stay out of Central Germany altogether.

I think Lisowczycy was killed in the First Battle of Soroca in 1603.
 
Originally posted by duncansa
I don't think the sejm or Andreas would at this point be interested in foreign adventures after the beating from the Ottomans/Tatars. I think they would evaluate the Hapsburgs as more than strong enough to whip the upstart Bohemians themselves. If there is a Bohemian victory wouldn't the PLC want to prevent the Hapsburgs collapsing as the OE may step into the power vacuum.
I do not think about a military engagement, more a political one. As you mentioned, PLC does not want the Habsburgs to collapse, but if GA's Bohemia is strong enough Poles might mediate in peace negotiations pointing that if the two Christan states keep fighting each other, they will clear the way for OE expansion.

I think Lisowczycy was killed in the First Battle of Soroca in 1603.
Lisowczycy, famous and infamous regiment of light cavalry, was created during Polish-Russian war, ca 1610. They proved themselves at that war, then they serve as mercenaries in imperial army during 30 Years War. They were considered one of the best light cavalry units in the world (if not the best), admired for their unorthodox tactics and combat skills but feard for their cruelty and plundering boh hostile and friendly lands. They were dissolved ca 1635.
 
12 Russia's Troubles Continue

When the appointment of a Chancellor and Hetman for Ruthenia became known, Tsar Vasily of Russia sent strenuous objections to King Andreas I. In his missive Vasily claimed all of Ruthenia east of the Dniester River as Russian domains. Andreas rejected these claims without any misgivings as he knew Vasily’s position was too weak to mount any serious challenge to the Commonwealth. The fact that the Russian Tsar could so easily be ignored was a testament to the weak position of that nation.

Vasily IV had remained childless but he refused to nominate an heir. His brother Dmitry was trying to place himself to become the Tsar on his brother’s death but Dmitry remained unpopular with many of the boyars. The nobles in Russia looked on in envy at the stability of the Commonwealth and many talked of having an elected monarch as that country enjoyed. Any attempt to discuss the succession with Vasily was treated by him as forming a conspiracy to replace him. He even ordered the murder of some boyars who pressed him too closely.

With the lack of an heir the Regent of Sweden, Duke Charles, who had been disappointed that he had been unable to press a claim for the Swedish throne when his brother the king became childless on the death of Sigismund Vasa, looked to Russia to stake a place for his lineage. Subsequent to the birth of his brother’s second son, also John, in 1589 and the death of John III in 1592 Charles had been declared Regent. During the infancy of John, Charles had tried to convince the Riksdag to declare him as king. However, as John was being raised as a good Lutheran in Charles own household and there was no external threat Charles could not build a convincing case to have John deposed from the line of succession.

Once Charles accepted this he looked for ways for his sons to be advanced. The instability in Russia possibly presented an opportunity. Charles planned that if the Russian throne could become vacant he would use Swedish resources to place his son Gustav Adolph on the throne. This could not be achieved without exerting force of arms so Charles ensured that Gustav was given the best military education that could be obtained. He also bent his attention to modernising the Swedish military.

On John’s eighteenth birthday in 1607 he had been proclaimed by the Riksdag as John IV. Having been raised in the same house as Gustav Adolph, John regarded him as a brother and was eager to lend his weight behind the project to raise Gustav to the throne of Russia.

The much anticipated demise of Tsar Vasily IV occurred in mid 1613. Dmitry Shuisky proclaimed himself as the new Tsar, as Dmitry II, but almost immediately he met with opposition from many of the Russian nobility. In an attempt to secure his place on the throne Dmitry II ordered troops to arrest the heads of the families most vocal in opposition. This backfired as a message from within Dmitry II’s household was sent out ahead of the troops and the nobles who were targeted fled. In some cases the arresting troops , angry that they had missed their targets, inflicted damage on the noble’s estates and in a few cases caused the death of members of the nobles households. This further deepened the hatred for the self proclaimed Tsar.

Dmitry II’s opponents started gathering forces to fight back. Dmitry II knew that this would lead to his deposition and assassination. Feeling unsure of both the loyalty of his own forces and of the size of the army being led by his opponents he fled from Moscow. With the support given by Duke Charles previously to place Vasily on the throne Dmitry II decided to make a plea to the Regent’s son Duke Gustav for aid.

With his king’s permission Duke Gustav offered to provide aid to DmitryII to place him on the throne and to provide forces to keep him there. However, the price for this was to name Duke Gustav as his heir and to make further territorial concessions to the Swedish crown, this included all of Karelia, the area east of Novgorod up to Vologda, the Kola Peninsula and including the port of Archangel.

With the improvements to the Swedish military that his father had developed Gustav quickly mobilised an army to support Dmitry II’s claim to the throne. Advancing from the Swedish possessions in the region of Novgorod the Swedish army met little opposition until they came close to the gates of Moscow. Here they encountered large Russian army. The ranks of the troops of the nobles had been swelled by proclaiming a patriotic resistance to foreign invasion. The army was led by Princes Dmitry Pozharsky and Dmitry Troubetskoy.

With the better training and weaponry of the Swedish army, Gustav’s forces easily defeated the brave but disorganised Russian forces. In the battle Dmitry Troubetskoy was severely wounded and had to be carried from the field. He was unable to take much further part in the struggle against Gustav. Dmitry Pozharksy was able to escape with his shattered army. He set about organising further resistance to those he castigated as foreign invaders.

The Swedish army entered Moscow and restored Dmitry Shuisky on the throne. However, his remit did not run far beyond the walls of Moscow. Duke Gustav found that he had to apply his forces totry to pacify the country. Further campaigning to extend the area controlled would be required in1614.

Much of the region east and south of Moscow became devastated as resistance to the Swedish takeover of power stiffened. Late in the summer Dmitry Shuisky died and Duke Gustav had himself anointed as Tsar Gustav I. Almost all of the new Tsars actions after his coronation only worsened his position with the Russians.

Gustav refused to convert to the Orthodox faith and had brought in a Lutheran cleric to officiate at his coronation. One of his first proclamations was to establish Lutheran churches in all the cities within the country. Most of the officials appointed in his administration were Swedes and he started confiscating estates from Russian nobles in opposition to him and awarding them to his Swedish supporters.

Dmitry Pozharsky was able to unite most of the Russian nobility in the struggle to eject the new Tsar. However, his efforts were hampered by the nobles not agreeing on who would become Tsar once victory was obtained. He managed to get agreement that the selection of a new Tsar would be decided at a Zemsky Zobor (National Assembly) once Gustav had been deposed. However, anytime an army was put into the field Gustav’s Swedish forces were victorious once a set piece battle was engaged.

Russia was descending into chaos. Bands of brigands were roaming the countryside and neither Gustav nor Dmitry was willing to apply forces to restore law and order. The stalemate was having as bad an effect on Gustav’s position as on the Russians. His cousin John IV was now reconsidering his support for Gustav as Tsar. It was now becoming costly in both money and military resources. As the year progressed more and more of Gustav’s requests for further aid were turned down.

Gustav I resolved to force a resolution to the struggle in 1615. He raised as much money as he could by squeezing taxes out of the areas under his control. With the monies he hired German mercenaries to bolster his forces. He then aggressively set out to track down Dmitry Pozharsky believing that if he could be eliminated then organised resistance to Gustav’s rule would collapse.

However, after several months of campaigning there had been no final battle, merely a series of skirmishes which chipped away at Gustav’s resources. Towards the end of the summer Gustav’s financial resources were exhausted and he was forced to retreat towards Moscow.

Once there the mercenaries realised that not only was there to be no further work for them but back pay that was owed would not be forthcoming. Once this was common knowledge amongst the mercenaries they began looting within Moscow to gain some recompense. Gustav was unwilling to use his remaining Swedish troops to suppress the mercenaries fearing losses amongst those he could most rely on. Instead he ordered his few Russian subordinates to lead their troops against the mercenaries.

The resulting struggle within Moscow caused huge devastation. Many citizens of Moscow were killed as a result of being caught between the opposing forces with many parts of the city going up in flames. The citizenry of Moscow joined with the Russian troops to attack the mercenaries and after many days of fierce fighting the mercenaries were finally suppressed. Tsar Gustav then tried to move back into Moscow with his Swedish troops.

To his dismay Gustav found that the Muscovites and his former Russian allies now banded together to prevent his entry into the city. With the gates locked against him he sought for ways to force entry. Meantime the Muscovites sent messages to Dmitry Pozharsky pleading for him to join with them in evicting the Swedes. With the opportunity to at last outmatch Gustav’s forces Pozharsky quickly organised his forces to march on Moscow.

Once Gustav learned of the approach of Pozharsky’s army he re-orientated his forces to face the new threat. However, once the two armies faced each other Tsar Gustav found his position being threatened by the Muscovites essaying forth from the city. In trying to match both sets of forces marching against them the Swedish army was repeatedly outflanked and whilst giving good account of themselves were forced to withdraw every time they tried to hold a position. This lasted for several days but eventually the Swedes found themselves forced to retreat from the city. Pozharasky was welcomed in to the city as the hero of the hour.

Gustav meantime withdrew back to the Swedish held city of Novgorod. He sent appeals to his cousin John IV for further aid. The reply received was that as Sweden was embroiled in a war with Denmark there were no forces that could be made available. Gustav then looked elsewhere for aid in restoring him to the throne and went on a trip to make supplication to Andreas I of the Commonwealth, the Elector of Brandenburg, the King of the United Kingdom and even the King of France but found no one who was willing to give him any aid further than token monetary assistance. Due to his fame at having won so many battles in Russia against great odds he received offers of positions to lead armies for many of the Princes he visited.

Meanwhile in Russia the succession to the throne had been resolved at a Zemsky Zobor. Dmitry Troubetskoy was the preferred candidate for Tsar , however, he felt that he could not accept as none of the other Troubetskoy’s adhered to the Orthodox faith. He proposed that the throne be given to his nearest relative of that faith, his sister’s son Michael Romanov. This was not accepted as it was not believed that a young man who had spent most of his youth in a monastery was suitable to lead Russia in turbulent times.

There were also many of the Russian nobility who were in favour of having an elected Monarch as practised in the Commonwealth. They supported Troubetskoy’s elevation to the throne as he would inevitably not start a dynasty and could represent a start to elective monarchy. Tsar Dmitry III was crowned by the recently appointed Patriarch.

Dmitry III’s first priorities were to prepare to resist any attempt by Gustav Adolph to reclaim the throne and to start restoring order to the country. There were some in the nobility who urged Dmitry III to muster forces to reclaim territory in the West which had been occupied by Sweden. However, he knew that Russia was not in a position to take on Sweden’s powerful army and any conflict with Sweden may provide a means of Gustav asserting his claim. Dmitry III’s aim was for a peaceful period to rebuild the shattered nation.
 
A nasty part of me keeps laughing seeing Russia and Sweden, two of the PLC's powerful enemies IOTL, bleeding each other dry. The war will go on, since Russians will not allow Novgorod to remain in Swedish hands without a fight. So, eastern and northern flank of the PLC is more or less secure. Except OE and Tatars (temporarily neutralized) Warsaw has no enemies. I see some time of peace and prosperity. If/when 30-years War (or its equivalent) starts PLC will be a haven for many refugees, not to mention business opportunities in selling food, weapons and any other stuff to both sides. PLC treasury will be full for quite some time. And that means PLC army will be a much stronger than IOTL.
I wonder, if Sweden actually should let GA go to Bohemia. He is the best commander Sweden has, and conflict with Russia is still on. Unless he manages to piss Swedish king off - perhaps Sweden, having financial problems with keeping a large army necessary to keep the Russians at bay, starts negotiations with Russia offering Novgorod back and GA is very vocal about it. The deal is on, however, and John IV will be happy to send his troublesome cousin to Bohemia with a heavy purse, strong army of voulnteers and quiet order to keep away from Sweden as long as possible. If GA can win himself a new kingdom, good for him. Officially, Sweden is not a part of that conflict.
 
A nasty part of me keeps laughing seeing Russia and Sweden, two of the PLC's powerful enemies IOTL, bleeding each other dry. The war will go on, since Russians will not allow Novgorod to remain in Swedish hands without a fight. So, eastern and northern flank of the PLC is more or less secure. Except OE and Tatars (temporarily neutralized) Warsaw has no enemies. I see some time of peace and prosperity. If/when 30-years War (or its equivalent) starts PLC will be a haven for many refugees, not to mention business opportunities in selling food, weapons and any other stuff to both sides. PLC treasury will be full for quite some time. And that means PLC army will be a much stronger than IOTL.
I wonder, if Sweden actually should let GA go to Bohemia. He is the best commander Sweden has, and conflict with Russia is still on. Unless he manages to piss Swedish king off - perhaps Sweden, having financial problems with keeping a large army necessary to keep the Russians at bay, starts negotiations with Russia offering Novgorod back and GA is very vocal about it. The deal is on, however, and John IV will be happy to send his troublesome cousin to Bohemia with a heavy purse, strong army of voulnteers and quiet order to keep away from Sweden as long as possible. If GA can win himself a new kingdom, good for him. Officially, Sweden is not a part of that conflict.

It seemed to follow for me that if Sweden is not having to worry about the PLC conflict as in OTL then Swedish resources would be directed elsewhere and expansion into Russia had started OTL so ITTL it gets a little bit more resources and with greater internal Russian turmoil, more success.

PLC treasury should be fuller but I'm not sure if the army will be stronger, maybe larger but not as modernised. Without war against modern armies,Sweden OTL, then Polish weaponry and tactics may become outdated.

I think Sweden will try quite hard to hold on to it's Russian possessions. Don't expect them to be negotiated away, will need to be taken by force.

Religious wars in Central Europe will happen but ITTL are working out very differently to OTL. Looks like GA will have a role
 
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Originally posted by duncansa
It seemed to follow for me that if Sweden is not having to worry about the PLC conflict as in OTL then Swedish resources would be directed elsewhere and expansion into Russia had started OTL so ITTL it gets a little bit more resources and with greater internal Russian turmoil, more success.

Here I have some doubts. Sweden was not rich, so keeping an army to fight big numbers of Russians and keep vast occupied territories secure might be too expensive. Considering GA's policy towardsa the orthodox faith, you can be sure Russian people under Swedish rule will not be happy. And war of attrition with Russia is never a good idea.

PLC treasury should be fuller but I'm not sure if the army will be stronger, maybe larger but not as modernised. Without war against modern armies,Sweden OTL, then Polish weaponry and tactics may become outdated.

As far as technology went, at the beginning of the XVIIth century IOTL PLC was not so far behind other European armies. Actually, before GA, Polish-Lithuanian troops were more than a match for Swedish forces (Battle of Kirchholm, anyone?). But you're right, after GA, Poles had to somewhat modernize their army.
BTW, can GA reform Swedish military as he did IOTL? New conscription system, making artillery a professional military force instead of a guild, reform of infantry and cavalry? He is not the king here, he has to convince his royal cousin to do this, and it would not be easy. IIRC GA had to deal with some protests at home. Here Sweden doesn't actually need so big and strong army (no war with PLC) and carving a kingdom in Russia for king's cousin is not a good argument to convince Swedish peasants and noblemen. And without GA's reforms Swedish army will not be such terrible force it was.
 
Thanks for the support. I was worried Seraphim 74 and I were getting into a boring (for others ) PLC debate.

I was glad to participate in the debate about the Cossacks, because I have just read severals books about the topics and the wars against the Ottoman Empire, battles of Cecora and Chocim of 1620-1621...

I have knowledge about the history of the PLC, but I can't help very much...
 
I meant that ITTL I think Lisowcyczy was killed in the First Battle of Soroca.

I may be mistaken but this sentence suggests that for you "Lisowczycy" is a name of single person. If this is really what you think I would like to make a correction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksander_Józef_Lisowski

Otherwise the timeline is great to read. The interesting thing was an attempt to build a Commonwealth Black Sea Fleet. What about Baltic Fleet? Is it going to be neglected or not?
 
I don't think it will happen in quite some time. PLC has decent relations with Sweden, so Polish ships and Polish commerce are safe. There are no pirates on the Baltic Sea, and even if they were, Swedish Navy is more than enough to deal with them. Building a navy is expensive, not to mention PLC has no big marital traditions or ambitions. PLC just lost her newly built, very expensive navy on the Black Sea. No way the Sejm would agree to spend money on a navy PLC actually does not need. Gdańsk/Danzig might build some light units, but nothing big.
Now, had Sweden tried to start her march to Dominium Maris Baltici (dominetion on the Baltic Sea) that might change situation, but with Sweden heavily engaged in Russia I do not see it would happen. For Sweden it would mean a war with PLC, a war Sweden doesn't need. ITTL PLC army is not so small and underpaid - it is a force to reckon with, with capable commanders and a lot of experience after the wars with the Ottoman Empire. Not to mention a very competent king. Sweden is much smaller, poorer and alredy at war. The last thing they want is to piss off the Poles.
 
Sweden is busy but the Danes are here too. And AFAIR they were usually in good relations with Russians. Andreas would think that it would be prudent to give some protection to long Commonwealth's sea coast. After all the king has some private funds. But I'm afraid the best he can do is probably to hire some corsairs before the Commonwealth is able to build and equip it's own fleet.
 
Yes, but PLC presently has no quarrel with Russia nor Danemark. Sweden and Russia keep fighting each other over Novgorod and neither side is interested in PLC intervention on their enemy's side, so Russia will not ask Danemark to harass Polish commerce.
As I said, it is possible for Danzig and perhaps some other Baltic ports of the PLC to build some light units, or, with king's support, perhaps even a small group of galleons. But personally, I believe the corsairs scenario is more likely. Even Polish king can not afford to build a navy capable to oppose Swedish or Danish fleet without backing of the Sejm. And the Sejm will not do it.
 
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