A batch of Chinese Nationalist what-ifs

raharris1973

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Half a dozen Nationalist Chinese what-ifs from the first half of the 20th century

1) What if Chiang never purged the left and listened to Borodin through the 20s?
When would the northern expedition have begun (Borodin opposed launching it in 1926) and where would it have aimed geographically? With what effect on Soviet, ChiNat, ChiCom, western and Japanese policies?

In OTL Borodin advised the northern expedition was too soon, and after the left-right split in the KMT he advocated advancing from Wuhan up to Beijing. Maybe in this TL, a northern expedition would have started later and gone a different route? Perhaps also this might have mucked with the beginnings of Japanese aggression into China.

2) What if Sun and KMT-CCP united front were ousted from Canton during the Sun-Joffe years between 1922 and 1925, could the United Front have gotten an alternate geographic base of support with Soviet assistance?

For example, possibly they could re-ensconce themselves in the far north, in Harbin or Qiqihar, being able to take advantage of Soviet extraterritorial protections in the Chinese Eastern Railway zone?

From there, would a successful “southern expedition” have been possible?

An interesting side effect would be that the great preponderance of Soviet interests in China, the railway concessions and the political HQs of the KMT and CCP would have all been placed in the same northern Manchurian basket. Might this have deterred Japanese advances to the Manchurian railway zone in 1932 or led the Soviets to oppose the Japanese advance more vigorously directly or by proxy?

Alternate locales to northern Manchuria that would also be closer to Soviet support than southern China might be Kalgan-Zhangjiakou in Inner Mongolia, fairly close to Soviet-back Outer Mongolia, or Urumqi Xinjiang or Lanzhou, Yenan or Xian in Gansu or Shaanxi provinces.

The far Northwest could have been tricky because of tougher than average Muslim warlords in the local area.


3) What if Chiang was overthrown or killed during the Central Plains War? How would the neo-warlord coalition have dealt with the challenges of the 1930s? How aggressively or effectively would they have fought the Communists or Japanese?

Could we have had an anomalous (to OTL) situation of Wang Jingwei being the head of a KMT-warlord-CCP coalition that eventually resists Japan, while Japan uses Chiang Kai-shek as a puppet ruler? the exact opposite of their alignments in OTL

4) What if intelligence chief Tai Li lived past 1946, would it be a benefit or a detriment to the regime in the Civil War?

5) What if Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan had decided to back the Wuhan-left KMT on Wang Jingwei over the Nanjing-right KMT of Chiang Kai-shek? Would that choke off further expansion and success by Chiang?

6) Could Chiang Kai-shek have benefitted from a slower, step-by-step northern expedition allowing him to set up a firmer, loyal administrative apparatus and to eschew the services of warlords bandwagoning to his cause?
 
1) What if Chiang never purged the left and listened to Borodin through the 20s?

The Communist movement continues to spread through the cities, not the countryside. This will have significant ramifications, although I don't think the radical left will continue to admonish the countryside for so long.


2) What if Sun and KMT-CCP united front were ousted from Canton during the Sun-Joffe years between 1922 and 1925, could the United Front have gotten an alternate geographic base of support with Soviet assistance?

I doubt the KMT would become so weak unless they fuck up so terribly, because Canton and the general Guangzhou area was a historical power base for the KMT. If they did though they have nowhere to go.


3) What if Chiang was overthrown or killed during the Central Plains War? How would the neo-warlord coalition have dealt with the challenges of the 1930s? How aggressively or effectively would they have fought the Communists or Japanese?

They would have done terribly, seeing how weak each of the military was and so distrustful of each other.


4) What if intelligence chief Tai Li lived past 1946, would it be a benefit or a detriment to the regime in the Civil War?

The KMT wouldn't have done better, considering how successful his anti-Communist campaigns were - in short, nil.


5) What if Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan had decided to back the Wuhan-left KMT on Wang Jingwei over the Nanjing-right KMT of Chiang Kai-shek? Would that choke off further expansion and success by Chiang?

By early 1929, Feng grew dissatisfied with Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government in Nanjing. He joined Yan Xishan and Li Zongren to challenge Chiang's supremacy. He was defeated by Chiang in the Central Plains War. Chiang then incited anti Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang sentiments among the Chinese Muslims and Mongols, encouraging them to topple their rule.[11]
It sounds to me like that's what happened OTL.


6) Could Chiang Kai-shek have benefitted from a slower, step-by-step northern expedition allowing him to set up a firmer, loyal administrative apparatus and to eschew the services of warlords bandwagoning to his cause?

Going too slowly would have wasted precious resources. He needed a quick victory so he could be firmly established as paramount leader within the KMT. Otherwise a counteroffensive by his competitors within the KMT could become a possibility.
 

raharris1973

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Zeppelinair

Your response to # 6 naturally leads to my #7 – Did Chiang pick the best (or only possible) time to purge the communists? Would he have been better served by delaying or moderating the purge or disciplining of the front and continuing the Northern Expedition campaign with less interruption?

Sure Chiang came out on top and was leading the internationally recognized government of China by 1928. But taking a break to crush the Communists and the left Kuomintang did have a real cost too, it ended up stalling the northern expedition and allowing the northern warlords to regroup, and left him with less leverage against warlords ever after than he might have been able to have if he had continued to lead a united front until at least defeating all the warlords, demobilizing their forces and getting a true national army and state started.
 
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