A Austro-Hungarian breakup after a Central Powers victory in World War I

Before the war, Austro-Hungary was under extreme strain from the fact that it was a multiculturalist's worst nightmare: it was too ethnically and culturally diverse to exist as a singular nation, mostly due to Austrian mismanagement. For example, there were 15 versions of the national anthem.

This caused problems in the Austro-Hungarian Army with 80% of their officers being German speakers. In said army, the largest ethnic groups were the Germans and the Hungarians with the rest including Ukrainians, Romanians, Slovaks and Poles making up the rest of the army. Nationalist unrest was rife throughout the army.

After the war, the Empire was broken up with territory given to the new nations of Poland, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia and other pre-existing nations.

But, in the event of a Central Powers victory in 1916, what would a violent, uncontrolled break up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire look like and what would be the immediate response of the nations surrounding it (especially Germany)?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
But, in the event of a Central Powers victory in 1916, what would a violent, uncontrolled break up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire look like and what would be the immediate response of the nations surrounding it (especially Germany)?
Does it have to be in 1916?
 
Hungary would be much bigger, perhaps it can even keep Slovakia but probably loses its German territories to Austria/Germany. Fate of Romanian territories are unclear. Much depends about Romania itself. Serbia is probably too weak to capture Bosnia so it goes either to independent Croatia or then if it not appear, to rump Austrian Empire. Croatia might gain independence or then not. Bohemia probably remain as part of Austria. Austria itself might remain independent or be annexed by Germany, depending how badly the empire collapses.
 
But, in the event of a Central Powers victory in 1916, what would a violent, uncontrolled break up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire look like and what would be the immediate response of the nations surrounding it (especially Germany)?

To cut it short, with a 1916 victory it probably won't collapse.

Before the war, Austro-Hungary was under extreme strain from the fact that it was a multiculturalist's worst nightmare: it was too ethnically and culturally diverse to exist as a singular nation, mostly due to Austrian mismanagement. For example, there were 15 versions of the national anthem.

While nationalist sentiments certainly were a point of contention I wouldn't call it multicultarist's worst nightmare. There was comparatively little oppression along language lines, let alone violence. The worst affected were the Ruthenians/Ukrainians/Russians (as ill defined as language/national/cultural groups were) and even those were only systematically discriminated against after the Russian war declaration.
Now I won't say that it was all peaceful, but compared to the other Empires of the time it wasn't a negative standout in this regard. Most of the opinion you spout comes from immediate post war historical writing, in an era that gave rise to people like Hitler and where new nations had to justify their own existence.
And I'd even dispute the "Austrian mismanagement". You obviously aim that at the "Germans" as so many people spinning the narrative did. However there were a probably more high ranking officials from Czechia than today's Austria...
15 national anthems? Really? You don't consider the complex government of the double monarchy, internal tolls or the status of Bosnia as important signifier, but the anthem? To cut this down, it was one anthem (per ruler) that was translated into the various languages of the empire. If this hadn't happened you'd complain about "Austrian oppression".

This caused problems in the Austro-Hungarian Army with 80% of their officers being German speakers. In said army, the largest ethnic groups were the Germans and the Hungarians with the rest including Ukrainians, Romanians, Slovaks and Poles making up the rest of the army. Nationalist unrest was rife throughout the army.
Not gonna search for that number. It's either counting proficiency not mother tongue, or it's limited to higher ranking officers in that case it'd be down to class less than origin. Even the Hungarian upper class/nobility/land owners were mostly brought up with German as their first language...
The army was complex and yes there were nationalist problems every now and again. But it's far from as bad as you consider it.
No Croatians and Czechs in the army? I'm surprised, since they actually made up a significant amount compared to the "minor" groups you mentioned.



Just to cut some ideas down. Austria-Hungary did not have a coalition government as we know it today in pretty much every democracy. Issues were dealt with with ad-hoc alliances between the many parties. Most language groups had at least three factions represented in the parliament and the real beauty of it was that the government had to piece together ever changing alliances. No "we have a majority and run all over you". More "I'll help you today if you help me tomorrow". It's probably the best government for compromise.
It comes with drawbacks. Franz Josef every now and then had to override the government if he needed something done fast. Or to be honest, simply disagreed with their ideas. During wartime those emergency rulings became more common. Still parliament continued to meet and this tradition of keeping all options open was kept as well.
So when Czech history writes that the a Bohemian faction was for independence of their country, then there were two other Bohemian factions who were against it...
In 1916 the country was still far from the brink it reached late 1917 or even then 1918. Before that point Austria-Hungary would most likely not have settled down peacefully, but was unlikely to disintegrate. A new Ausgleich would have been fought over a lot. But unless Germany backstabs A-H in a victorious scenario I just can't see it disintegrate in 1916.
 
Oh dear. Better switch the A to An or a lot of us are going to be tearing out our hair a lot. Anyways, I don't see overt German mismanagement. Each region had their problems, though some were quite happy. The Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria was fairly content, if only because the Poles there had some actual authority and could see what the Prussians and Russians were doing to their own. Of course the Galician Poles did dominate the area to the detriment of the other Slavs, so perhaps splitting the region is needed. Though this might just mean the Poles then want to join any independent Polish state. Depends how large it is and how much independence it has. In general I can see the Austrians-Hungarians managing things. As some Hungarian officials told the Austrians, they both have their own Slavs to deal with. So long as the Magyars know that geographically half of Hungary (not counting Croatia) is populated by non-Magyars, they should be content to have German support. The Croats were already satisfied enough, though they wanted Dalmatia, which the Hungarians supported. Having the Bulgarians take chunks of land from Romania and Serbia, as planned through treaties, would weaken both states enough that the Magyars could rest easy with their own portions of the kingdom. I imagine that if there was a breakup, they might try to have a monarch of their own, and have both Croatia and Galicia in personal union with them. After all, the Austrian excuse for taking Galicia was that it was once in union with the Kingdom of Hungary.
 
Trieste would most probably have had a better C20th had it remained in Austrian hands and been their principal Adriatic commercial and naval port. In Italian hands it was let decay as a vulnerable appendage. Up to 1989, I am told that it was largely smuggling that kept it afloat.
I suspect that, in Austrian hands and with normal C20th increases in agricultural productivity, migration from its hinterland would have turned it into a largely Slovene and Croat city by c.1940.
Giving it to Italy was also poor diplomatic practice as, by removing Austria from the Adriatic altogether, it allowed Italy too much dominance in the region and also gave them the ability to aggressively pursue territorial claims against France, Yugoslavia and Albania, removed a buffer between Italy and Serbia/Yugoslavia and weakened Austria enough to permit Anschluss in 1938.
 
Total violent disintegration is unlikely.
What's more probable is slow erosion of central power.
Greater autonomy for Croatia was already underway. At the time of its collapse, Dual Monarchy was defacto "2.5 Monarchy". Same would probably happen for Bohemia.
Things are most likely to get violent in Hungary, where Hungarian magnates will probably refuse both autonomy for minorities and more rights for commoner Hungarians.
 
Interesting scenario idea !

Mackus and the others already made good points, but if I come up with something, I'll post it here.
 
Total violent disintegration is unlikely.
What's more probable is slow erosion of central power.
Greater autonomy for Croatia was already underway. At the time of its collapse, Dual Monarchy was defacto "2.5 Monarchy". Same would probably happen for Bohemia.
Things are most likely to get violent in Hungary, where Hungarian magnates will probably refuse both autonomy for minorities and more rights for commoner Hungarians.
Seems to be a fair assessment. The Croatians had shown themselves as loyal to the Habsburgs for centuries, so it only made sense that when Franz Joseph gave the formerly rebelling Hungarians the status of a co-kingdom that Croatia was given a large amount of autonomy. Done in a matter to smooth Hungarian pride. I am unsure if the Hungarians or Austrians really wanted Bosnia-Herzovigina, so perhaps that goes to Croatia-Slavonia, as well as Dalmatia. Though I very much doubt either the Austrians or Hungarians would want to give up land their claimed. This is a disintegration situation though, so I imagine it would be like how the Austrians quickly gave the Croats and Slovenes their fleet after WWI so the Italians wouldn't have it. Give the loyal locals what they want, have them as friends, but keep a port for yourselves. I do wonder about how much autonomy Bohemia, Moravia, and Austrian Silesia would have been given though. That was a rather valuable area. I suppose that if it was gone while Croatia was given more land they could find a way to balance out the power politics. Tricky for Bohemia partially because of all the Germans in both the cities and borderlands. I'd like to see a scenario in which the various dialects of Austria (think there are two main ones currently) get mixed with the German of Silesia and the Sudentland, while getting Slovene, Czech, Moravian, and perhaps a dash of Friulian mixed in. Highly unlikely, of course. People can force changes on religion, nationality, and occupations fairly easily. Language? That takes a bit longer.
 
While nationalist sentiments certainly were a point of contention I wouldn't call it multicultarist's worst nightmare. There was comparatively little oppression along language lines, let alone violence. The worst affected were the Ruthenians/Ukrainians/Russians (as ill defined as language/national/cultural groups were) and even those were only systematically discriminated against after the Russian war declaration.

There was plenty of oppression along language lines in Austria-Hungary. And quite a bit of violence, too. Most elections in Galicia and Hungary saw the Austro-Hungarian army and gendarmerie killing a bunch of dissident voters. ("Dissident voters" usually meaning "people of the wrong nationality". Like Ukrainians in Galicia, or Romanians in Hungary.)

For example, Austro-Hungarian troops killed 27 people during the 1911 elections in Galicia, and many more were seriously injured. Around 10 people were killed by the authorities in the 1910 elections in Hungary.
(Although Franz Joseph's subjects didn't always have to wait for elections to see some beating and shooting - see, for example, the murder of 15 Slovak protesters by gendarmes in 1907.)

...and that was all before the war. Once the war started things quickly went from bad to much, much worse.

Not gonna search for that number. It's either counting proficiency not mother tongue, or it's limited to higher ranking officers in that case it'd be down to class less than origin. Even the Hungarian upper class/nobility/land owners were mostly brought up with German as their first language...
The army was complex and yes there were nationalist problems every now and again. But it's far from as bad as you consider it.
No Croatians and Czechs in the army? I'm surprised, since they actually made up a significant amount compared to the "minor" groups you mentioned.

Official statistics say Germans made up 79% of the Austro-Hungarian joint officer corps and 60% of the reserve officers. Czechs and Croats were both heavily under-represented, although not as badly underrepresented as certain other nations.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'll assume that the Austro-Hungarian break-up occurs in 1918-1919 rather than 1916; indeed, if the CPs win in 1916, I doubt that Austria-Hungary will collapse--especially if the near-term.

Hungary would be much bigger, perhaps it can even keep Slovakia but probably loses its German territories to Austria/Germany.

Completely agreed with this.

Fate of Romanian territories are unclear. Much depends about Romania itself.

Yeah, it would depend on whether or not Romania now has a pro-German government as well as on the role that Romania will play in crushing any Communist uprising in Hungary.

Serbia is probably too weak to capture Bosnia so it goes either to independent Croatia or then if it not appear, to rump Austrian Empire. Croatia might gain independence or then not.

Agreed with all of this.

Bohemia probably remain as part of Austria.

Depends--indeed, if Austria is needed by Germany, I could see Bohemia being given nominal independence but with it de facto being a German protectorate.

Austria itself might remain independent or be annexed by Germany, depending how badly the empire collapses.

Agreed with this.

Also, Galicia gets partitioned between the Polish and Ukrainian puppet states while Bukovina either fully goes to Ukraine or gets partitioned between Ukraine and Romania. Also, Italy might get the Trentino if it promises to behave well; however, it probably won't get anything else.
 
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