A Anglo-German Colonial/Security/Naval Agreement in 1899

Okay so, this had been asked a hundred times on this forum (I have read/skimmed half those threads). So to start off with this: I know Wilhelm is a bit of an unreasonable figure and he wanted his big navy and a place in the sun, but I will have dealt with these things at this point.

To give you some feeling for the changes ITTL (I haven’t finalised my POD):

  • Maybe no Tirpitz but no second german naval law for sure!
    So a navy of roughly 19 BS, 12 LC and 30 SC is what we are looking at.
  • Germany still takes Tsingtao but no standoff in Manila and no backing of a different candidate in Samoa either. So better relations with the US and by default better relations with Britain (over Samoa) too.
  • I might make some minor changes to the second Boer War;
    Britain not seizing the Bundesrath, Herzog and General;
    and maybe no Krüger Depesche (not so minor)
  • Germany and Britain keep on feeling each other out between Chamberlains 1st and 2nd attempt at an alliance.
  • Depending on british public mood Chamberlain won't say:"a new Triple Alliance between the Teutonic race” maybe something more reserved.
The bigger problems with this treaty (for me at least) seem to be public perception and political establishments. To name a few things:

  • I might deal with the Krüger Depesche (see above) but the german public will still be outraged at Britain (and maybe vice versa). Do you think German politicians will be open for such an agreement during the ongoing Boer War?
  • Britain at this point still feels most threatened by Russia and France so when threatened in their colonies Britain wants Germany to strong arm them in line in Europe. Germany doesn’t want to fight Britain's wars for almost no gains (Seven Years War). But Germany is interested in benevolent British Neutrality in case of any war since in my TL they will have realized that they can never defend their colonies from Britain. I feel points B) 1 - 4 deal with this quite nicely but please tell me what you think.
  • This treaty doesn’t stop Britain from forming the Entente like OTL. Do you think this will still happen? And do you think Britain will “betray” (this could also mean renegotiating several clauses) Germany at a later point when its differences with France and Russia have lessened ?
  • Is Germany's Naval restriction enough? I kinda felt it was agreeable with the two power standard. Before the advent of the Dreadnought 19 BS are not even close to 50% of the RN....or? Couldn't find numbers pre Dreadnought.

So most of you will probably recognize which OTL treaty I copied. The names and stuff like 9) will be changed in the final version but please critic everything else about the language as well.

Setting: This is happening at the same time as the OTL Tripartite Convention

A) COLONIAL AGREEMENT
1) Germany will renounce their claims to Samoa. And transfer of all of the German rights in the Tonga group including that of establishing a naval and coaling station, and the right of extraterritoriality to Britain.

2)Britain will give control over the Solomon Islands Protectorate to Germany in exchange.

3) Germany will hand over the Mariana Islands to the USA. With whom Britain will resolve the situation on the Samoan Islands

4) Britain and Germany will split New Guinea along its watershed from the 141st meridian east to its easternmost point. Island, belonging to the Territory of Papua, lying north of this point will be ceded to Germany.

B)SECURITY AGREEMENT
1)The Contracting parties, mutually recognize the status quo concerning their colonial and european interests and possessions. They declare themselves to be entirely uninfluenced by aggressive tendencies toward each other.
The Contracting parties recognize that it may be indispensable to take measures in order to safeguard those interests and possessions if threatened either by the aggressive action of any other Power, or by disturbances arising inside their colonial interest zones, necessitating the intervention of either of the Contracting parties for the protection of the lives and properties of its subjects.

2)Declaration of neutrality if either signatory becomes involved in war through 1).

3)Promise of support if either signatory becomes involved in war with more than one Power through 1).

4)Signatories promise not to enter into separate agreements with other Powers which could lead to war between the Contracting parties without either of them acting aggressively.

5)The signatories promise to communicate frankly and fully with each other when any of their common colonial interests are affected.

6) Both countries will promote the peace in Europe and the World and the peaceful resolution of disputes

C) NAVAL AGREEMENT
1)Germany restricts itself to having:
under 50% of the number of RN battleships,
under 60% of the number of the combined RN ships

2)Ships with displacement below 2000 t will not be counted towards 1)
 
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Tyr Anazasi

Banned
While many here think it was Wilhelm's and Tirpitz's dream to have such toys, the truth is far more complex. Indeed about 1898, during a small quarrel, British politicians threatened just to blockade the German coast and thus forcing Germany to relent. This did alert the Germans and later led to the Risikoflotte, which should never reach Britain's but being too strong to fight and just threaten Britain away. Indeed the 1913 fleet talks between Germany and Britain were nearly successful. Even a fleet rate of 60% for Germany was agreed to, also by Tirpitz, but there was one clause the Germans needed and the British did not want to give: The clause of benevolent neutrality in case of a European war.

That having said the German government would need this clause as well here. Oh, and the German fleet must be at least as as big as the French and the Russian Baltic fleets together as well.
 
Friedrich von Hollman - was Staatssekretär im reichsmarineamt (lord of Admirality I assume) and resigned in 1897 because he could not get an icrease in funds for the navy (;)). His sucessor was Alfred von Tirpitz.

Tirpitz was a proponent of Battleships while Hollman wanted a "cruiser fleet"

Wilhelm was not initially demanding a Battlefleet - he asked Tirpitz for an asessment about the fleet - the product was favoring Battleships. Assume Hollman gets his increase and Wilhelm asks Hollmann for the analysis - we would end with a german "cruiser fleet".

One big point that separates Britain and Germany is butterflied away.
 
While many here think it was Wilhelm's and Tirpitz's dream to have such toys, the truth is far more complex. Indeed about 1898, during a small quarrel, British politicians threatened just to blockade the German coast and thus forcing Germany to relent. This did alert the Germans and later led to the Risikoflotte, which should never reach Britain's but being too strong to fight and just threaten Britain away.

In my TL German-British Relations over colonial matters are a bit better. But you bring up a good point the British threat of a blockade doesn't sit well with the public.
So far I have come to the conclusion that the german government has to realize that they can never defend their colonies against Britain. Instead they should seek out an agreement with the British Empire and built up a fleet that (in combination with Italy and Austria) can beat the Franco-Russian one all over the globe (really hard in far east Asia).
Now they have to sell this to the public, who wanted a strong fleet after British threats during the Boer war.

Indeed the 1913 fleet talks between Germany and Britain were nearly successful. Even a fleet rate of 60% for Germany was agreed to, also by Tirpitz, but there was one clause the Germans needed and the British did not want to give: The clause of benevolent neutrality in case of a European war.

That was in 1913! I am talking about the timeframe 1898-190. Berlin-London relations were way better during the last years of Queen Victorias reign. Britain wanted an alliance with Germany to safeguard against France and Russia. Germany declined because they didn’t wanted to get into a big two front war because of a british colonial dispute (China,India, Persia,Africa).

That having said the German government would need this clause as well here. Oh, and the German fleet must be at least as as big as the French and the Russian Baltic fleets together as well.

My estimate is Germany need a Battleship fleet the size of the russian baltic fleet + ½ the French Fleet because the rest should be bound in the mediterranean by Austria and Italy.

Friedrich von Hollman - was Staatssekretär im reichsmarineamt (lord of Admirality I assume) and resigned in 1897 because he could not get an icrease in funds for the navy (
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). His sucessor was Alfred von Tirpitz.

Tirpitz was a proponent of Battleships while Hollman wanted a "cruiser fleet"

Wilhelm was not initially demanding a Battlefleet - he asked Tirpitz for an asessment about the fleet - the product was favoring Battleships. Assume Hollman gets his increase and Wilhelm asks Hollmann for the analysis - we would end with a german "cruiser fleet".

One big point that separates Britain and Germany is butterflied away.


Yes I agree with you here. As far as I can tell pre 1898 a enlargement of the German Navy was pretty unpopular. But Willhelm wanted one, his bigger problem with Hollmann was not that he prefered cruisers but that he was unable to push a naval bill through the Reichstag. You can say what you want about Tirpitz but his public campaign to get the approval of his first Naval Law was pretty impressive (and effective)
I am basing my German fleet size here roughly around the first Naval Law which would have already been approved by the time of the agreement (British Names):
19 Battleships, 8 Coastal-Defence Ships, 12 Large Cruisers (protected cruisers->armoured cruisers -> battlecruisers) and 30 Small Cruisers (unprotected cruisers -> small cruisers)
A fleet of this size would not be a threat to the British Empire as the OTL High Seas Fleet was. So I think by the time this agreement should be reached ITTL german navy sizes haven't yet appeared threatening to the british admiralty and public
 
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