How can we get to manage a post-Manipulite Italy without a political involvement of Silvio Berlusconi? Who else may be in charge of Italy and especially the Italian political right without Bunga-Bunga? How would Italy (and maybe the EU and the world) look different from today?
Ah, well, it could take many unexpected spins:
1- Berlusconi listens to an early plan by Craxi, when the situation is not totally deteriorated, and creates a vaguely center-leftist party, maybe with support from Pannella, to rally liberal and moderate social forces behind Giuliano Amato.
2-Berlusconi listens to a later, more desperate plan by Craxi, and manages to create a Forza Italia - PPI - Patto Segni - Lega Nord coalition.
In both these cases, Berlusconi will eventually be sidelined by more experienced politicians: Giuliano Amato leading first a new center-left and then maybe a moderate left coalition in the first case, and Mario Segni or Pierferdinando Casini in the second.
3- Berlusconi rallies behind the PPI-Patto Segni Coalition.
This is another chance and well ... it may end up in very different ways:
BAD CASE: Fininvest doesn't manage to move enough votes towards the pathetic Martinazzoli - Segni ticket. The left wins, by a slim margin, but neofascists take as much as 18% while the Northern League is the first northern Party with 30-40% and a 12% nationwide- Parliament is divided, a new national unity government without extremists, communists and neofascists follows and this could either lead to a destabilised political scenery or to widespread chaos and even secessionistic attempts.
GOOD CASE: Fininvest moves enough votes towards the moderates, neofascists are sidelined, even though they get some good percentages a la Le Pen, and the Northern League takes a Libertarian / Neolberal / localist drift, eventually becoming the swinging ally of both left and right in an increasingly european bipolarism.
Probably, without Berlusconi using former socialists' grudge at his own advantage, the moderate socialist vote goes to Segni in 1994, allowing for a centrist victory, but later flows back to the left, especially if larger surviving socialists and post communists can now manage a decent modus vivendi.