In Chris' scenario, Bush would fail at winning a second term. No way the UK would try to 'become a state'... worst case scenario: they might leave the European Union and become more close to the US, but they'd still be independent. As for the use of nukes, well, maybe tactical nukes right after 9/11, but pretty soon the public is going to get pissed off that the United States is using WMDs against the WMD-holding terrorists.
Russia absorbing Kazakhstan? Not in that short timespan. Bush compromising with the PRC over Taiwan? No way. Protectorates over the Middle East? The US can't handle that even with a draft. In any case, the terror would only last until Kerry or some other super-Democrat gets elected and by 2005 the government begins pushing for an end to all of the radical overreactions.