788 succession of Lombardy if Charlemagne never invades?

The PoD for this is really in the early 770s, as it requires Charlemagne to not interfere in Lombardy. That could be caused simply by him deciding to put more effort into fighting the Saxons or the Muslims in Spain, or perhaps his death/exile. This would cause Desiderius to be succeeded by Adalgis when he died, around 787 if the records can be trusted.

However, Adalgis has no known sons and has no listed marriages either. He would die not long after, it is thought 788.

Who would be a valid candidate for the Lombard throne?

- BNC
 
The PoD for this is really in the early 770s, as it requires Charlemagne to not interfere in Lombardy. That could be caused simply by him deciding to put more effort into fighting the Saxons or the Muslims in Spain, or perhaps his death/exile. This would cause Desiderius to be succeeded by Adalgis when he died, around 787 if the records can be trusted.

However, Adalgis has no known sons and has no listed marriages either. He would die not long after, it is thought 788.

Who would be a valid candidate for the Lombard throne?

- BNC
Charlemagne invades then?
 
:p Good idea, but who would he fight against? Someone has to lead the enemy force, as the whole of Italy isn't going to just submit to an outsider's rule.

- BNC
Scattered resistance from local magnates quickly collapses with no unifying ruler.
The real question is, what has Charlemagne done in the last 20 years? Has he focused more on the Saxons, enabling him to conquer them even quicker, and potentially causing Charlemagne to look further east (although the resources past the Oder may not be enough to justify the cost of conquest), or did the non-existence of the Lombard conquest, which really helped in making him totally superior to his vassals, mean that his realm isn't centralized and/or stable enough for successful foreign adventures?
 
The real question is, what has Charlemagne done in the last 20 years? Has he focused more on the Saxons, enabling him to conquer them even quicker, and potentially causing Charlemagne to look further east (although the resources past the Oder may not be enough to justify the cost of conquest), or did the non-existence of the Lombard conquest, which really helped in making him totally superior to his vassals, mean that his realm isn't centralized and/or stable enough for successful foreign adventures?

First, he is focussing more on the Saxons, probably as a larger reaction to the Deventer raid (Jan 772) or a slightly later raid. After that is dealt with, he has fought in Spain against the Muslims, possibly to continue a legacy of his grandfather's victory at Tours. It is also possible that he maintains his marriage with Desiderata, though that would not be essential.

Scattered resistance from local magnates quickly collapses with no unifying ruler.

Sounds messy. Lombardy will probably get jumped on by the ERE if that is allowed to happen.

- BNC
 
First, he is focussing more on the Saxons, probably as a larger reaction to the Deventer raid (Jan 772) or a slightly later raid. After that is dealt with, he has fought in Spain against the Muslims, possibly to continue a legacy of his grandfather's victory at Tours. It is also possible that he maintains his marriage with Desiderata, though that would not be essential.



Sounds messy. Lombardy will probably get jumped on by the ERE if that is allowed to happen.

- BNC
Probably not entirely. Byzantium may get Spoleto and Benevento, the Pentapolis if they're really lucky. What would 15 extra years of Lombard domination have done to the Papacy? What would be the cultural consequences by this date of the delaying of Charlemagne's dominance? No correctio?
 
What would 15 extra years of Lombard domination have done to the Papacy?
The Donation of Pippin was still relevant by 769, so it could have stood until 788. Desiderius was, from what we understand, quite an old man, and unlikely to go warring on stuff just for the sake of it. Furthermore, it had been Lombard policy to maintain the image of respect between the kingdom and the Pope, so the Pope won't be in too bad a position. Likely worse than OTL, but not much worse. By the time the warlike (from what we can see from his actions in 788) Adalgis comes around, the ERE would be able to defend against a direct threat.

What would be the cultural consequences by this date of the delaying of Charlemagne's dominance?
Very little. 15 years isn't enough to substantially change the lifestyle of the commoners. In OTL, it took until the later 9th century to abandon the name of 'Lombardy'.

As for the Karlings themselves, Pippin/Carloman of Italy will either get assigned a different part of the kingdom (maybe the part in Spain that gets taken in the ATL), or just sits around. Charlemagne misses out on a little bit of wealth, but that is made up for in Spain.

- BNC
 
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