7 Years War - Russian plan implemented

In a document outlining Russian plans regarding a coming war the goals had been defined as following:

1. Weakening Prussia to such a degree that it would not be able to interfere with the Russian “interests” in the PLC.
2. Austria should get Silesia.
3. Poland should get “King’s Prussia” (which meant Ducal Prussia).
4. As a compensation for #3 Russia is getting a freedom of operations on Polish territory and:
4.1. Courland
4.2. Vaguely defined territory on the Southern end of the PLC which would allow access to the Black Sea (to which the PLC did not have access so perhaps some “follow up” with the Ottomans had been planned).

Of course, none of the above happened as a byproduct of the 7YW but what if the plan worked out? Probability was admittedly low but well above zero (more energetic Austrian and Russian commanders, Austrians managing to handle supplies issue for themselves and their allies, Elizabeth dying few years later).

To sum up: Prussia is defeated, Austria regained Silesia, PLC got the Ducal Prussia, Russia got Courland and a chunk of the Southern Right Bank Ukraine. How European affairs are proceeding from that point?
 
Russia would benefit in long run, having buffer zone protecting their western flank. Russians would attempt to strenghten their control of PLC (perhaps making it Romanov secundogeniture one day?). Crippled Prussia would be to weak to protest, but there is still Austria. That problem also could be solved-Austria would need Russian help against revolutionary France, unless French Revolution is butterflyied away (but Russian victory rather would not impact much western theater of 7YW, so rather not much butterflies there).
 
- Poland survives, so no possibility of rebellious Poles for Russia. Which is good.

- Weakened Prussia + Freedom of operation within the PLC means more success should the Russians interfere in the Holy Roman Empire. Which Austria may not like but not necessary for a new conflict

- Ottomans may avoid war with Russia if Russia has Podolia (if that is what you say Russia gets). Especially with a victorious Russia in the 7 years war. A future conflict over the Crimea and Moldova is not out of question though.

- Russia is pretty much the most powerful European State by 1763. Rivalry with France is a possibility as two most powerful European States


What makes me wonder is that Austria is the most powerful German State. Will Austria unite Germany? If yes, will they integrate Hungary in to Germany? And will Russia interfere in future wars with the UK/France? Assuming Elisabeth does not die immediately, what happens to Catherine?
 
Russia would benefit in long run, having buffer zone protecting their western flank. Russians would attempt to strenghten their control of PLC (perhaps making it Romanov secundogeniture one day?).

Well, the control was already strong enough and probably could go on relatively easily without a hamfisted approach of the OTL. Anyway, it was clear from the document I mentioned that Elizabeth did not have plans for partitioning the PLC (except for ..er.. "compensation" for giving it the Ducal Prussia) and Prussian territories had been presented from the point of the trade advantages for the PLC. Of course, we should not ignore the fact that during the 7YW territory of the neutral PLC had been used by the Russian armies rather freely.

Crippled Prussia would be to weak to protest, but there is still Austria. That problem also could be solved-Austria would need Russian help against revolutionary France, unless French Revolution is butterflyied away (but Russian victory rather would not impact much western theater of 7YW, so rather not much butterflies there).

French Revolution is rather a long shot but I don't think that under any plausible within this framework scenario Austria would risk to start war against Russia: Prussia is too weak to became a serious military factor as an ally and return of Silesia would be probably enough of a boon even for Maria Theresa to stop looking for the new acquisitions at PLC expense.
 
- Poland survives, so no possibility of rebellious Poles for Russia. Which is good.

Good for both sides. ;)

- Weakened Prussia + Freedom of operation within the PLC means more success should the Russians interfere in the Holy Roman Empire. Which Austria may not like but not necessary for a new conflict

Honestly, with Prussia being drastically weakened, I don't see any obvious reason for the Russian involvement in the HRE affairs except as sending an auxiliary force to help Austria (happened during the reign of Anna). Of course, if Peter III decides to start war with Denmark over Holstein, this could also be the case.

- Ottomans may avoid war with Russia if Russia has Podolia (if that is what you say Russia gets). Especially with a victorious Russia in the 7 years war. A future conflict over the Crimea and Moldova is not out of question though.

I'd say that the issue of the Crimea would be a high probability as a cause for war. Moldavia always was something of a mystery to me.
 
Good for both sides. ;)



Honestly, with Prussia being drastically weakened, I don't see any obvious reason for the Russian involvement in the HRE affairs except as sending an auxiliary force to help Austria (happened during the reign of Anna). Of course, if Peter III decides to start war with Denmark over Holstein, this could also be the case.



I'd say that the issue of the Crimea would be a high probability as a cause for war. Moldavia always was something of a mystery to me.

I pity the Poles for 1772-1918. My honest feeling. Good for both and possibly Europe as well.

After Prussia OTL will be changed a lot thus making it a guess whether Russia will try to consolidate the Baltics or try to create a wedge between Vienna and the Germans. It is up to our speculations.

The Crimea is definitely a good casus belli. The question is how Peter III will deal with that (I assume he will become Czar after the peace).
 
I pity the Poles for 1772-1918. My honest feeling. Good for both and possibly Europe as well.

After Prussia OTL will be changed a lot thus making it a guess whether Russia will try to consolidate the Baltics or try to create a wedge between Vienna and the Germans. It is up to our speculations.

If the Eastern Prussia is going to the surviving PLC protected by Russia and Courland is going to Russia then realistic Russian consolidation of the Baltic coast is over except for the "Swedish issue": in OTL Sweden was starting wars with Russia (usually when it was fighting elsewhere) all the way to the reign of Alexander I and with St-Petersburg being dangerously close to the border, this represented a strategic problem that had not been sold until acquisition of Finland (and Sweden finally getting a non-bellicose dynasty ;)).

Getting between Vienna and the Germans? To which end? Unless, of course, relations with the Hapsburgs deteriorated to the equivalent of the OTL early XX. In OTL Russian "power projection" into the HRE/Germany was minimal, regardless the countless marriages so this would represent a major shift of the Russian foreign policy. Not that it is completely impossible but I have difficulties with imagining Russia trying to play AH version of Prussia in the HREm especially with the surviving PLC as a buffer.

The Crimea is definitely a good casus belli. The question is how Peter III will deal with that (I assume he will become Czar after the peace).

It seems that even Catherine II did not know exactly how to deal with it. Theoretically, the Ottoman Empire was an aggressor (declared a war) so the Khanate became a fair game and the military part of its conquest proved to be reasonably simple to accomplish. However, it took one more war for the Ottomans to get reconciled with an idea of its loss (and the loss of the rest of the Northern coast of the Black Sea) and when the dust settled there was a lingering question of what to do with and about the locals: for a big part of them there was absolutely nothing to do after the slave trade was gone so there was a continued emigration all the way to the late XIX when the government sponsored development of the area into a major resort and big wineries of the "Novy Svet" had been created.

Peter III was not an idiot even if he had some questionable ideas so if push comes to shove and he is still on the throne, probably war with the Ottomans and conquest of the peninsula would go more or less along the same lines as in OTL except that the Prussian-Austrian diplomatic pressure (as a precursor to the 1st partition) would not be a factor forcing rather modest gains after successful war. Most probably Rumiantsev would be in charge from the very beginning (he was Peter's loyalist and Catherine had second thoughts about his candidacy until he won spectacular victories) and almost definitely Archipelago Expedition would not happen because this was an idea pushed by Orlov brothers. OTOH, who knows, may be Peter would come with something similar on his own.
 
What makes me wonder is that Austria is the most powerful German State. Will Austria unite Germany?
With all internal opposition marginalized wouldn't the Austrians be able to gradually make the existing Germany (the Holy Roman Empire of the German People) into a more substantial union? It already had common currency (Conventionsthaler), head of state (the Emperor), legislature (the Imperial Diet), and a national army (Reichsarmee). Giving these institutions some more weight and an injection of modernity would go a long way.
 
Good for both sides. ;)



Honestly, with Prussia being drastically weakened, I don't see any obvious reason for the Russian involvement in the HRE affairs except as sending an auxiliary force to help Austria (happened during the reign of Anna). Of course, if Peter III decides to start war with Denmark over Holstein, this could also be the case.



I'd say that the issue of the Crimea would be a high probability as a cause for war. Moldavia always was something of a mystery to me.

Peter's war would enlarge the empire so nominally Austria wouldn't have an issue. Might get Sweden to help since his relative is on the throne there. Depends how the coups are butterflied.
 
Peter's war would enlarge the empire so nominally Austria wouldn't have an issue. Might get Sweden to help since his relative is on the throne there. Depends how the coups are butterflied.

If Elisabeth lives and makes Peace, Peter III can't ruin it by making peace with Prussia immediately. Taking the heath off him. Whether he will remain on the throne is a different question. Hell, he can still experience OTL fate but a few years later.
 
If Elisabeth lives and makes Peace, Peter III can't ruin it by making peace with Prussia immediately. Taking the heath off him. Whether he will remain on the throne is a different question. Hell, he can still experience OTL fate but a few years later.

Quite agree. Peter's peace with Prussia was just a convenient excuse for the plotters.

While the OTL plotters had been using a "shameful peace" with Prussia as one of the talking points, it is worth noticing that Catherine did not change anything in it and in the initial part of her reign the policy was pro-Prussian. Second thing to remember is that those making most of the noise were the Guards and while some individuals like Alexey and Grigory Orlov did participate in the 7YW, most of the Guards had been staying in St-Petersburg. OTOH, the leading Russian generals in the field seemingly did not have any problem with making peace (to a great degree due to the fact that relations with the Austrians seriously deterriorated).

After the peace, general Rumiantsev was quite eager to start war with Denmark (in which he was designated to command an army) but the Guards were unhappy because they were supposed to participate (aka, to leave St-Petersburg).

Peter's "Manifest of nobility's freedom " (which removed requirement of a mandatory military service) was quite popular among the nobility but on a personal level a number of the aristocrats who had "honorary" military ranks had been unhappy with Peter's insistence that they must learn at least basics of a military service.

An idea about equality of the religions was quite progressive but you can imagine reaction of the Orthodox Church (and not only), etc.

Basically, the plotters had a very narrow support base but that base was in the right place and while the plot's leaders (mostly Orlov brothers, Catherine was acting as more or less a figurehead) were decisive people, Peter was not: he was wasting time hesitating what to do until it was too late.
 
If the Eastern Prussia is going to the surviving PLC protected by Russia and Courland is going to Russia then realistic Russian consolidation of the Baltic coast is over except for the "Swedish issue": in OTL Sweden was starting wars with Russia (usually when it was fighting elsewhere) all the way to the reign of Alexander I and with St-Petersburg being dangerously close to the border, this represented a strategic problem that had not been sold until acquisition of Finland (and Sweden finally getting a non-bellicose dynasty ;)).

I feel this is a bit exhaggerated - Sweden started two wars with Russia in 100 years (1741 and 1788), and Russia started two with Sweden (1700 and 1808). Supposedly the 1741 one was intended as support for Elisabet's coup against Anna and Sweden was to be rewarded with some territory lost 1721 back, but Elisabet renegaded on the deal, perhaps because the Swedish troops performed extremely bad due to widespread corruption in the Swedish officer corps and Russia was winning easily.
 
I feel this is a bit exhaggerated - Sweden started two wars with Russia in 100 years (1741 and 1788), and Russia started two with Sweden (1700 and 1808). Supposedly the 1741 one was intended as support for Elisabet's coup against Anna and Sweden was to be rewarded with some territory lost 1721 back, but Elisabet renegaded on the deal, perhaps because the Swedish troops performed extremely bad due to widespread corruption in the Swedish officer corps and Russia was winning easily.

Off topic. How do you post your TL like that under your comments? You may notice that mine does not look that good lol.
 
Off topic. How do you post your TL like that under your comments? You may notice that mine does not look that good lol.

The exact same way you make links in text on the forum. Write the text you want (for example "The great Turk returns 1747"), highlight/mark your text, press the link button and then paste the URL to your timeline in the winwor that pops up, click the insert button and done.
 
I feel this is a bit exhaggerated - Sweden started two wars with Russia in 100 years (1741 and 1788), and Russia started two with Sweden (1700 and 1808). Supposedly the 1741 one was intended as support for Elisabet's coup against Anna and Sweden was to be rewarded with some territory lost 1721 back, but Elisabet renegaded on the deal, perhaps because the Swedish troops performed extremely bad due to widespread corruption in the Swedish officer corps and Russia was winning easily.

The GNW does not count within this context, just as the wars of the XVII century, because none of them was endangering St-Petersburg (it was simply not there even in 1700 and was not a capital until 1713. War of 1808 was, indeed started by Alexander but only after Gustav IV refused to confirm the existing treaties and took pro-British position. Still, the main reason was protection of the capital.

Of course, no offense to Sweden was intended (by me) :)
 
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