54-40 And Fight!

In the 1840's the boundary dispute over Oregon between Britain and the United States threatened to come to a head. Expansionist sentiment, along with the call of "Manifest Destiny" (as well as some Northern distrust of the Southern-born Polk's agenda) fueled a growing clamor for war. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed and the US would soon be devoting its resources to the Mexican War.

But what if Polk had given in to the expansionists? Would the British, despite an early show of tough talk, have really been willing to fight? What would have happened in Upper Canada, which in OTL was upset over Britain not looking after their interests and sought greater autonomy?

And what of Mexico? If the war dragged on, the US would have found itself facing a two-front war-and Polk might well have had to face growing Northern resentment as a result. It might well have ended in a political disaster for him, if not in an outright military defeat on American soil.

Thoughts and comments?
 
The British had a very well laid out plan on how to take on the US incase this developed into a real conflict. The US less so.

At the moment the US has a chunk of its fleet sailing to the Pacific to claim ports in California and blockade Acapulco. The rest is stationed right outside blockading Veracruz and Matamoros. Due to Britian's naval advantage the blockades might have to be dropped.

It be best to take down Mexico fast but logistics are a problem. Most likely the war will come to a halt with the US occupying most of Northern Mexico, but loosing ground in the rebellions along Southern California (yes, there were a few and Fremont's 60 men will not be enough to hold them without the fleet arriving). Mexico will continue to fight until Mexico City is taken or a coup by the cooler heads happens and an acceptable treaty is made.

The war against Britain would be interesting. The US has the clear advantage in Oregon. Most of the settlers there are American probably willing to form a militia. And the US has 2 or 3 ships in the Pacific that could get a head start on the British and take Vancouver Island. However the Northeast is screwed.

At best the war on the east will end in a stalemate. But the coast would have suffered quite a bit. Support for the war and Polk and the war would fall very quickly. In this case the US will have to accept the 49 parallel in Oregon anyway. And in Mexico the 37th parallel scenario looks likely. This places all of SanFran Bay in the US as well as the Great Basin but leaves Mexico California south of Monterey Bay and all of Arizona and New Mexico. The Nueces Strip However will go the US no matter what as it is clearly occupied by American forces by now.
Once gold is discovered in California, it will flood with US settlers and the US could pull a Texas there create an independent republic and expand. But they might not be ready nor willing to do so. So the US will still end up like it did in OTL (maybe larger with Baja in it) it might just take longer to do so.

At worst the US looses all claims to the Pacific coast and a bite of from Maine and Lake Superior. Mexico leases California for British investment, assuming a cooler head is in power. Britain gets a lot of power and influence over Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, and the Pacific Coast. The southern portion of Texas is set up as an independent buffer between the US and Mexico. Mexico receives a fair chunk of immigration from Ireland, Italy and Asians into California. Under British eye it grows stable and prosperous.

In either case Canada would seek greater autonomy. We might actually see the Maritimes and Canada develop into two separate dominions and earlier than in OTL. They might actually be called kingdoms since there will be less regard for US opinion. In the latter case there is the possibility of a "Cascadia/Pacifica" dominion as well.
 
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