50/49 BC. WI Cato falls severely ill.

Without Cato being present to influence the negotiations, Cicero manages to convince the two Pompeian consuls to accept the compromise offered by Mark Antony. Caesar gets his province with a single legion and the ability to stand for consul in absentia thus affording him legal immunity. What happens next? Does the Republic endure for at least the rest of Caesar's lifetime?
 
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Lentulus Crus hated Caesar’s guts, he would never go down for compromise, Cato or no Cato. But, let’s say he does, for the sake of argument, what about Pompey? His is command extended too in your ATL or is he forced to disband his army?
 
Lentulus Crus hated Caesar’s guts, he would never go down for compromise, Cato or no Cato. But, let’s say he does, for the sake of argument, what about Pompey? His is command extended too in your ATL or is he forced to disband his army?

I wouldn’t say Lentulus Crus hated Caesar. He was quite an opportunist and Caesar thought he had reasonable prospects to circumvent Lentulus Crus. The Claudii Marcelli And of course Domitius Ahenobarbus were the most uncompromising.

But this was not decisive. The most decisive reason of the civil war, as Cicero clearly understood and privately stated, was that from december 50 on, Pompey decided to severe his political alliance with Caesar unless Caesar accepted to acknowledge Pompey’s primacy and to place himself at Pompey’s mercy to protect him against his political enemies that promised to harass him judicially until they succeeded in destroying Caesar politically.
 
I wouldn’t say Lentulus Crus hated Caesar. He was quite an opportunist and Caesar thought he had reasonable prospects to circumvent Lentulus Crus. The Claudii Marcelli And of course Domitius Ahenobarbus were the most uncompromising.

But this was not decisive. The most decisive reason of the civil war, as Cicero clearly understood and privately stated, was that from december 50 on, Pompey decided to severe his political alliance with Caesar unless Caesar accepted to acknowledge Pompey’s primacy and to place himself at Pompey’s mercy to protect him against his political enemies that promised to harass him judicially until they succeeded in destroying Caesar politically.

Caesar managed to bribe all consuls associated with the Caludii Marcellii except for him, so he either really couldn’t stand Caesar, or he was staunchly devoted to the cause of the oligarchy, and I always assumed that no hardcore optimas could ever bear the sight of Caesar. Anyway, you’re right about Pompey, that’s why I wanted to know if in his ATL Pompey still kept his armies.
 
Lentulus Crus hated Caesar’s guts, he would never go down for compromise, Cato or no Cato. But, let’s say he does, for the sake of argument, what about Pompey? His is command extended too in your ATL or is he forced to disband his army?

Was that part of the compromise that Antony offered Cicero and the Optimates? If it was, then yes Pompey disbands.
 
I wouldn’t say Lentulus Crus hated Caesar. He was quite an opportunist and Caesar thought he had reasonable prospects to circumvent Lentulus Crus. The Claudii Marcelli And of course Domitius Ahenobarbus were the most uncompromising.

But this was not decisive. The most decisive reason of the civil war, as Cicero clearly understood and privately stated, was that from december 50 on, Pompey decided to severe his political alliance with Caesar unless Caesar accepted to acknowledge Pompey’s primacy and to place himself at Pompey’s mercy to protect him against his political enemies that promised to harass him judicially until they succeeded in destroying Caesar politically.

But that is irrelevant. Pompey wasn't Consul even if he was very influential. So let's say Pompey and all Caesar's political enemies oppose the plan, but the two Consuls who though they support Pompey get cold feet at the prospect of civil war with Caesar. The Senate manages to get enough support to pass a bill giving Caesar his province and legion through support of the moderates led by Cicero. The Consuls don't veto.
 
Caesar managed to bribe all consuls associated with the Caludii Marcellii except for him, so he either really couldn’t stand Caesar, or he was staunchly devoted to the cause of the oligarchy, and I always assumed that no hardcore optimas could ever bear the sight of Caesar. Anyway, you’re right about Pompey, that’s why I wanted to know if in his ATL Pompey still kept his armies.

I always thought it was ultimately Cato that prevented Cicero from convincing the Consuls in their meeting with Antony. As much as they oppose Caesar, are they really willing to risk civil war? After all, with a single legion Caesar can't do much to threaten the Republic. Don't give him a casus belli to start a civil war, allow him to become Consul with an Optimate as the other Consul and you neutralize the impact he can have on Roman politics.

As for Pompey, let's just assume that if he is unwilling to make any concessions to avoid civil war, the moderates and enough Optimates abandon him to secure a compromise, sidelining him. They bet that even if Pompey refused to defend Rome with his armies, Caesar wouldn't just attack Italy to become dictator without a sufficient pretext.
 
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But that is irrelevant. Pompey wasn't Consul even if he was very influential. So let's say Pompey and all Caesar's political enemies oppose the plan, but the two Consuls who though they support Pompey get cold feet at the prospect of civil war with Caesar. The Senate manages to get enough support to pass a bill giving Caesar his province and legion through support of the moderates led by Cicero. The Consuls don't veto.

Sorry but what is irrelevant is believing that being consul was the most important position in the late Roman republic.

Between 69 and 53, Pompey was consul but once (in 55). And however he was then the first man in Rome, enjoying the biggest Auctoritas and the biggest clientelae. Several consuls were his clients.
 
Sorry but what is irrelevant is believing that being consul was the most important position in the late Roman republic.

Between 69 and 53, Pompey was consul but once (in 55). And however he was then the first man in Rome, enjoying the biggest Auctoritas and the biggest clientelae. Several consuls were his clients.

You seem to assume that all support for the First Citizen in Rome with the biggest Auctoritas is unconditional no matter the threat posed by external factors, such as the threat of civil war. Was everyone 100% confident that Pompey would defeat Caesar? Consul may not be de facto the most important position, but if Consuls choose to break with their backer, they had real constitutional authority to not exercise a veto for example.

When there is no danger, the First Citizen is the most powerful with authority outstripping Consuls. Put the Republic in a crisis, make the First Citizen obstinate risking civil war, and there's a risk some of his supporters will defy him just this once, since it is a small concession to Caesar that hardly puts him in a position to dominate Roman politics. (Pompey is also hardly the shrewdest politician, nor someone to never forgive slights)

OTL in my understanding the decisive factor for being unable to avoid civil war ultimately was the Consuls being unswayed by Cicero (due to Cato) and vowing to veto any attempt by the Senate to make this small concession to Caesar to avoid civil war. Otherwise there was enough support from moderates and Optimates with common sense to secure a compromise.
 
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IOTL Caesar marched on Rome with only one legion, the 10th legion, so giving up all but one legion is hardly insurance. Furthermore there's nothing to stop Caesar from re-mobilizing his legions after they disbanded, or even from recruiting new legions. The real reason for the civil war was the total lack of checks against the authority of powerful proconsuls. This problem predates Caesar by a few decades, but it was embodied in its purest form in the person of Caesar. He had no respect for the rule of law and saw the government as an instrument to bend to his will, which is apparent to anyone who has even a passing knowledge of his blatant abuses of power during his first consulship. I refuse to believe that the consuls of the year 50 BCE were at fault for the civil war because they did nothing in response to Cato's accusations against Caesar. There was nothing forcing Caesar's hand when he broke the law in the first place during his consulship (by arresting Cato for merely speaking in the senate no less) and possibly ordering his supporters to assault his co-consul. Cato being dead has no impact on Caesar's threats to "defend his command", and the idea that Cato somehow caused the civil war by being stubborn is just blatantly reductionist
 
You seem to assume that all support for the First Citizen in Rome with the biggest Auctoritas is unconditional no matter the threat posed by external factors, such as the threat of civil war. Was everyone 100% confident that Pompey would defeat Caesar? Consul may not be de facto the most important position, but if Consuls choose to break with their backer, they had real constitutional authority to not exercise a veto for example.

When there is no danger, the First Citizen is the most powerful with authority outstripping Consuls. Put the Republic in a crisis, make the First Citizen obstinate risking civil war, and there's a risk some of his supporters will defy him just this once, since it is a small concession to Caesar that hardly puts him in a position to dominate Roman politics. (Pompey is also hardly the shrewdest politician, nor someone to never forgive slights)

OTL in my understanding the decisive factor for being unable to avoid civil war ultimately was the Consuls being unswayed by Cicero (due to Cato) and vowing to veto any attempt by the Senate to make this small concession to Caesar to avoid civil war. Otherwise there was enough support from moderates and Optimates with common sense to secure a compromise.

I of course agree that, OTL, Gaius Claudius consul for 50, and both consuls for 49, played a crucial part in bringing the political conflict to meltdown point because they would not compromise and give-up their and their allies’ obsession about causing Caesar’s downfall.

However it was precisely in crisis situations that first citizens most visibly asserted their Auctoritas. Much more than in quite times.

And this was quite logical because being first citizen did not derive from prestige but from real power and hard resources.

What made Pompey the most powerful man in Rome for a generation was not his prestige but his unmatched resources. He was quite clumsy in the Senate and on the forum. But he had and could summon far more resources than anybody else because he was by far the main patron in most of the Roman provinces, especially in Spain and in the East.

Prestige was but a consequence of power and of real resources.

That’s why in crisis times, nobody cared much about speeches or about official magistrates. The really most powerful men, be they magistrates in office or not, we’re the decisive actors. A Cicero could still make great speeches and go and privately talk with other nobles and with the most powerful ones (which he was not), these men did what they wanted whatever Cicero said. Pompey anyway said Cicero he thought war was unavoidable because he did not want to avoid war at the price of giving-up his claim to supremacy over Caesar.
Caesar’s father in law Piso, although censor in office, could try what he would to cool things down.

The civil war was not the result of Pompey’s will alone. If Pompey alone had wanted to bring a crisis in his relationship with Caesar to military meltdown point, he could not have succeeded in doing so.

The civil war became possible and happened because Pompey allied himself again with the core of the optimates who wanted Caesar’s downfall but who could not reach their goal on their own because Caesar was too big for them to swallow alone.

The consuls alone, in 50 and 49, had no such weight to decide on their own. It was only because they had Pompey’s backing that they overrode the tribunitian vetos and the 370-22 vote of the Senate in favor of both Pompey and Caesar laying down their extraordinary commands.

It was the same during Caesar’s first consulate. Caesar did what he did, overriding vetos and delaying tactics, because he knew he had the actual support of the then 2 most powerful men in Rome : Pompey and Crassus who supported Caesar for the precise reason that Caesar had the political craft and guts to do what it took to pass the measures that Pompey and Crassus were longing for but that the optimates blocked.

Which explains Caesar’s statement in 50/49 that he had made enemies in advancing Pompey’s interests, in fighting those who then were Pompey’s enemies, and then Pompey dropped him and allied with his former enemies against him, Caesar.

But this was not a matter of legality and office positions as magistrates. Pompey and the optimates had allied to form a new faction that, although a small minority in the Senate, was the most powerful on the Roman political stage and all the provinces except Gauls. And they would have their goals fulfilled whatever it took, in a different way but in the same logic as Marius maneuvered in 88 in order to destroy Sulla by snatching the eastern command away from Sulla’s hands.

Same situation and same result : civil war because neither Sulla nor Caesar would let himself be destroyed without fighting with their standing armies.

Although surprised by the quickness of Caesar’s military moves in January 49, Pompey was not surprised by the outburst of the war. He had all calculated it. He knew he had more resources than Caesar and that time would almost certainly buy him a victory by attrition. After Caesar’s defeat at Dyrrachium, Caesar was almost finished. It is only Pompey’s fatal strategic mistakes that gave Caesar the opportunity to turn the tide of the war by offering him at Pharsalus the pitched battle that would enable him to play his best and last asset : his tactical superiority and his better (although only half the size of Pompey’s) army.
 
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IOTL Caesar marched on Rome with only one legion, the 10th legion, so giving up all but one legion is hardly insurance. Furthermore there's nothing to stop Caesar from re-mobilizing his legions after they disbanded, or even from recruiting new legions. The real reason for the civil war was the total lack of checks against the authority of powerful proconsuls. This problem predates Caesar by a few decades, but it was embodied in its purest form in the person of Caesar. He had no respect for the rule of law and saw the government as an instrument to bend to his will, which is apparent to anyone who has even a passing knowledge of his blatant abuses of power during his first consulship.

Caesar's men needed a provocation from the Senate to march on Rome in the first place. Giving concessions to Caesar and making him relatively powerful (Consulship, province a single legion) would have placated his men and Caesar would not have threatened Rome with his legions without their firm support. They would not have given that firm support for no reason. The Senate's refusal to make any concessions to Caesar, a widely popular and wildly successful politician heavily legitimized his subsequent extra-legal actions.

I refuse to believe that the consuls of the year 50 BCE were at fault for the civil war because they did nothing in response to Cato's accusations against Caesar. There was nothing forcing Caesar's hand when he broke the law in the first place during his consulship (by arresting Cato for merely speaking in the senate no less) and possibly ordering his supporters to assault his co-consul. Cato being dead has no impact on Caesar's threats to "defend his command", and the idea that Cato somehow caused the civil war by being stubborn is just blatantly reductionist

Historically it is recorded that Cicero came very close to securing a compromise between the two Consuls and Mark Antony, but that Cato convinced them not to do it. You misunderstand my point, the Consuls certainly recognized the threat that Caesar posed (which is Cato's position) but they also recognized the real threat of civil war and what someone like Caesar would do if he won the civil war. It's not the case that the Consuls were at fault for doing nothing, but they threatened to veto any compromise and consensus reached by the rest of the Senate. The Senate was willing to overlook Caesar's past abuses because they did not want civil war. It was Cato and the Consuls of 50BC who were apparently determined to force one, and this perhaps was what Caesar wanted all along.
 
That’s why in crisis times, nobody cared much about speeches or about official magistrates. The really most powerful men, be they magistrates in office or not, we’re the decisive actors. A Cicero could still make great speeches and go and privately talk with other nobles and with the most powerful ones (which he was not), these men did what they wanted whatever Cicero said. Pompey anyway said Cicero he thought war was unavoidable because he did not want to avoid war at the price of giving-up his claim to supremacy over Caesar.

The powerful ones can do whatever they want but why should Auctoritas mean that the Senate automatically side with you at the price of civil war and the possibility of losing it? Especially if they knew that this was just a power struggle between Pompey and Caesar? I understand the threat of Pompey abandoning Rome and refusing to defend it against Caesar, but how much could Caesar do extra-legally if the Senate had already given him concessions without losing public support?

The civil war was not the result of Pompey’s will alone. If Pompey alone had wanted to bring a crisis in his relationship with Caesar to military meltdown point, he could not have succeeded in doing so.

The civil war became possible and happened because Pompey allied himself again with the core of the optimates who wanted Caesar’s downfall but who could not reach their goal on their own because Caesar was too big for them to swallow alone.

But the Optimates had nothing in terms of military powerful to match Caesar. So were they all willing to put their eggs in one basket to fight Caesar? (someone with no respect for Republican law) I'm thinking most of them were not, but a few hard-core elements were including Cato who convinced the Consuls unfortunately. The Optimates only looked to Pompey for protection against Caesar, they were not necessarily beholden to him, so when presented with an attractive compromise why should they not take it?

The consuls alone, in 50 and 49, had no such weight to decide on their own. It was only because they had Pompey’s backing that they overrode the tribunitian vetos and the 370-22 vote of the Senate in favor of both Pompey and Caesar laying down their extraordinary commands.

I'm not sure what you mean. Consuls have veto power but they can't override the tribunes. The Tribunes vetoed the decree that both Pompey and Caesar step down (the Consuls supported it), because they argued Pompey has to step down first. The Consuls couldn't do anything about the veto. Pompey not serving as magistrate that year didn't even have any formal power.

It was the same during Caesar’s first consulate. Caesar did what he did, overriding vetos and delaying tactics, because he knew he had the actual support of the then 2 most powerful men in Rome : Pompey and Crassus who supported Caesar for the precise reason that Caesar had the political craft and guts to do what it took to pass the measures that Pompey and Crassus were longing for but that the optimates blocked.

Caesar was actually Consul that year but even he couldn't override Tribune vetoes. He took his bills directly to the Public Assemblies instead. Only the Senate had power to make decrees, but the Public Assembly could make laws. Any compromise agreed would have been a decree issued by the Senate. Presumably if the offer was genuine why would the tribunes (controlled by Populares, supporting Caesar) even veto it? Your argument rests on the basis that Pompey's Consuls would never "betray" him or if they did, they would instantly have no power. But the Consuls needed no extraordinary power to see a decree/compromise passed. Caesar controlled most of the Tribunes that year, and the few Optimate tribunes could easily be swayed to not vetoing if they saw most of the Optimate senators agreeing on this course of action. (They did not veto a proposal for both Caesar AND Pompey to step down) Historically what blocked a decree/compromise was only the two Consular vetoes

But this was not a matter of legality and office positions as magistrates. Pompey and the optimates had allied to form a new faction that, although a small minority in the Senate, was the most powerful on the Roman political stage and all the provinces except Gauls. And they would have their goals fulfilled whatever it took, in a different way but in the same logic as Marius maneuvered in 88 in order to destroy Sulla by snatching the eastern command away from Sulla’s hands.

Same situation and same result : civil war because neither Sulla nor Caesar would let himself be destroyed without fighting with their standing armies.

As I said there were enough moderates and even Optimates to easily side with the Populares to give in to Caesar's compromise. The minority die-hard Pompeian and Conservative faction could then do as they please but they would have no backing of the Senate, in particular no backing to strip Caesar of ALL his commands, he would be allowed to keep one province and one legion. The Senate can pass just such a decree and as long as the Consuls and conservative Tribunes were swayed enough by a desire to avoid civil war (which apparently they nearly were), the die-hard minority faction can't do anything about it legally speaking. At most Pompey could abandon Rome and vow not to defend it.

Although surprised by the quickness of Caesar’s military moves in January 49, Pompey was not surprised by the outburst of the war. He had all calculated it. He knew he had more resources than Caesar and that time would almost certainly buy him a victory by attrition. After Caesar’s defeat at Dyrrachium, Caesar was almost finished. It is only Pompey’s fatal strategic mistakes that gave Caesar the opportunity to turn the tide of the war by offering him at Pharsalus the pitched battle that would enable him to play his best and last asset : his tactical superiority and his better (although only half the size of Pompey’s) army.

Again why should the Senate be so confident of Pompey's certain victory over Caesar? Was Pompey able to convince them that Caesar stood no chance? Were the majority in the Senate including the moderates really that naive to believe Pompey? Pompey was no politician as you have just said.
 
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The powerful ones can do whatever they want but why should Auctoritas mean that the Senate automatically side with you at the price of civil war and the possibility of losing it? Especially if they knew that this was just a power struggle between Pompey and Caesar? I understand the threat of Pompey abandoning Rome and refusing to defend it against Caesar, but how much could Caesar do extra-legally if the Senate had already given him concessions without losing public support?



But the Optimates had nothing in terms of military powerful to match Caesar. So were they all willing to put their eggs in one basket to fight Caesar? (someone with no respect for Republican law) I'm thinking most of them were not, but a few hard-core elements were including Cato who convinced the Consuls unfortunately. The Optimates only looked to Pompey for protection against Caesar, they were not necessarily beholden to him, so when presented with an attractive compromise why should they not take it?



I'm not sure what you mean. Consuls have veto power but they can't override the tribunes. The Tribunes vetoed the decree that both Pompey and Caesar step down (the Consuls supported it), because they argued Pompey has to step down first. The Consuls couldn't do anything about the veto. Pompey not serving as magistrate that year didn't even have any formal power.



Caesar was actually Consul that year but even he couldn't override Tribune vetoes. He took his bills directly to the Public Assemblies instead. Only the Senate had power to make decrees, but the Public Assembly could make laws. Any compromise agreed would have been a decree issued by the Senate. Presumably if the offer was genuine why would the tribunes (controlled by Populares, supporting Caesar) even veto it? Your argument rests on the basis that Pompey's Consuls would never "betray" him or if they did, they would instantly have no power. But the Consuls needed no extraordinary power to see a decree/compromise passed. Caesar controlled most of the Tribunes that year, and the few Optimate tribunes could easily be swayed to not vetoing if they saw most of the Optimate senators agreeing on this course of action. (They did not veto a proposal for both Caesar AND Pompey to step down) Historically what blocked a decree/compromise was only the two Consular vetoes



As I said there were enough moderates and even Optimates to easily side with the Populares to give in to Caesar's compromise. The minority die-hard Pompeian and Conservative faction could then do as they please but they would have no backing of the Senate, in particular no backing to strip Caesar of ALL his commands, he would be allowed to keep one province and one legion. The Senate can pass just such a decree and as long as the Consuls and conservative Tribunes were swayed enough by a desire to avoid civil war (which apparently they nearly were), the die-hard minority faction can't do anything about it legally speaking. At most Pompey could abandon Rome and vow not to defend it.



Again why should the Senate be so confident of Pompey's certain victory over Caesar? Was Pompey able to convince them that Caesar stood no chance? Were the majority in the Senate including the moderates really that naive to believe Pompey? Pompey was no politician as you have just said.


You overestimate the actual power the Senate held in this critical period. If Pompey had had the stones and the brains for it, he could have marched on Rome back in 62 and put the Oligarchy out of its misery. He had the army, the clientela, the glory, the auctoritas. That was real power by then, not some air headed imbeciles sitting in a Curia or wherever. Pompey let his chance slip, but he still had his name and his clients to support him. If the Oligarchy wanted to survive, they needed someone with that kind of power to prevent others from taking over. Cato and his partisans didn’t like it one bit, and yet when things escalated they knew that was the only thing they could do. Thus, Pompey became consul sine collega (courtesy of Bibulus, stubborn optimas #2). With Pompey, as weak minded as ever, standing on their side, Cato and his pals were convinced to have won the contest, that’s why they didn’t even bother with levying an army against Caesar until it was too late.

Cato was a moral authority, nothing more, the most influential and powerful of the Optimates were convinced to have the upper hand and that Caesar would lay down arms, not daring to face them directly, that’s why they were so unreceptive to Caesar’s demands in the first place. And honestly, look at it from their perspective, why would they think to lose? They have Pompey “The Great” with them, all provinces except Gaul under their command, the total control of the sea, how could they lose? And mind you, had it been, say, Lucullus in place of Pompey, Caesar would have probably lost. But the Optimates had no way to know that Pompey was all talk and no substance in a war, and that Caesar was one of the best generals in military history. Caesar occupying Rimini shocked them to the core, as did the ease Caesar conquered the whole of Italy. They thought Pompey’s name and the cause of the Republic was enough to stand against any rebel, they were wrong.
 
Was that part of the compromise that Antony offered Cicero and the Optimates? If it was, then yes Pompey disbands.

Just noticed this anyway. In this case, then yes, the Optimates can do nothing but compromise with Caesar. Pompey wil go sulking in a corner to live out the rest of his days in envy and melancholy, Caesar will levy more troops, use them to win consulship for 48, and then he’ll extend his own command in Illyricum maybe, and then who knows, Noricum, Retia and Dalmatia get conquered earlier than OTL? Who knows. As for the Republic, Caesar will win some other campaigns, than he’ll do what Pompey couldn’t do, march on Rome and seize power right away, who could stop him anyway? Pompey? Too late for that.
 
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Giving concessions to Caesar and making him relatively powerful (Consulship, province a single legion) would have placated his men and Caesar would not have threatened Rome with his legions without their firm support.

But the crisis of 50/49 didn't happen in a vacuum. The senate had already granted massive concessions to Caesar during his consulship in 59 and when they extended his command in Gaul by five years. The senate passed his land reform law, gave huge concessions to both Pompey and Crassus, passed Caesar's ambitious provincial reform bill, and gave Caesar command of an unprecedented number of proconsular provinces in addition to giving him broad license to conquer Gaul (more or less illegally). The senate had been placating Caesar's demands for ten years by the time 49 BCE rolled around, and he gave them nothing in return, so why would they give him even more concessions in 49 BCE in exchange for him not illegally invading Italy. It's extortion plain and simple, and the senate wasn't standing for it. Not that they could really do anything about it anyway, they only had any leverage because Pompey abandoned Caesar. The senate didn't even have its own army, they relied on troops levied by Pompey and Domitius Ahenobarbus for the entire civil war.

Historically it is recorded that Cicero came very close to securing a compromise between the two Consuls and Mark Antony, but that Cato convinced them not to do it. You misunderstand my point, the Consuls certainly recognized the threat that Caesar posed (which is Cato's position) but they also recognized the real threat of civil war and what someone like Caesar would do if he won the civil war. It's not the case that the Consuls were at fault for doing nothing, but they threatened to veto any compromise and consensus reached by the rest of the Senate. The Senate was willing to overlook Caesar's past abuses because they did not want civil war. It was Cato and the Consuls of 50BC who were apparently determined to force one, and this perhaps was what Caesar wanted all along.

Why would Cato want to force a civil war? If anything, he probably believed that they backed Caesar into a corner and he'd never invade Italy with only one legion. I simply fail to see how Cato was somehow singlehandedly responsible for the civil war when Caesar was the one that actually marched on Rome. I just don't understand why all the powerful optimates (Ahenobarbus, Bibulus, Gaius Marcellus, Metellus Scipio, et al) would all of a sudden bow to Caesar's wishes or that somehow Caesar would start respecting the rule of law and cooperate with the senate just because Cato is dead.
 
But the crisis of 50/49 didn't happen in a vacuum. The senate had already granted massive concessions to Caesar during his consulship in 59 and when they extended his command in Gaul by five years. The senate passed his land reform law, gave huge concessions to both Pompey and Crassus, passed Caesar's ambitious provincial reform bill, and gave Caesar command of an unprecedented number of proconsular provinces in addition to giving him broad license to conquer Gaul (more or less illegally). The senate had been placating Caesar's demands for ten years by the time 49 BCE rolled around, and he gave them nothing in return, so why would they give him even more concessions in 49 BCE in exchange for him not illegally invading Italy. It's extortion plain and simple, and the senate wasn't standing for it. Not that they could really do anything about it anyway, they only had any leverage because Pompey abandoned Caesar. The senate didn't even have its own army, they relied on troops levied by Pompey and Domitius Ahenobarbus for the entire civil war.



Why would Cato want to force a civil war? If anything, he probably believed that they backed Caesar into a corner and he'd never invade Italy with only one legion. I simply fail to see how Cato was somehow singlehandedly responsible for the civil war when Caesar was the one that actually marched on Rome. I just don't understand why all the powerful optimates (Ahenobarbus, Bibulus, Gaius Marcellus, Metellus Scipio, et al) would all of a sudden bow to Caesar's wishes or that somehow Caesar would start respecting the rule of law and cooperate with the senate just because Cato is dead.
The only reason for which Caesar (and really Sulla before him) marched on Rome is who that was the only alternative to the political and personal destruction. Caesar respected the Republican institutions and had zero intention to take full power at Rome or marching on the city but returning at Rome without the possibility to be candidate as consul in absentia would be a pure folly for him because his many enemies were just waiting the moment in which he would be without imperium before accuse him in tribunal with the intention of at least exile him...
 
Caesar respected the Republican institutions and had zero intention to take full power at Rome

"I assure you I had rather be the first man here (in Gaul) than the second man in Rome."
--
Caesar's own words according to Plutarch

The idea that Caesar respected the rule of law or Republican institutions is laughable. Dictator for life anyone? He didn't have to get elected to that title, but he wanted it. I'm not saying Caesar was evil or not an important historical figure, but to deny that he was selfish and that his naked ambitions were a large cause of the civil war is bordering on revisionism. Read any account of his consulship to show what Caesar thought of the rule of law. The idea that his opponents were, "waiting to accuse him in a tribunal," is more accurately read, "Caesar's opponents were waiting to hold him accountable for his illegal actions as consul." Killing off Cato won't change the charges against Caesar nor will it change his blatant ambitions and the threat they posed to the Republic.
 
"I assure you I had rather be the first man here (in Gaul) than the second man in Rome."
--
Caesar's own words according to Plutarch

The idea that Caesar respected the rule of law or Republican institutions is laughable. Dictator for life anyone? He didn't have to get elected to that title, but he wanted it. I'm not saying Caesar was evil or not an important historical figure, but to deny that he was selfish and that his naked ambitions were a large cause of the civil war is bordering on revisionism. Read any account of his consulship to show what Caesar thought of the rule of law. The idea that his opponents were, "waiting to accuse him in a tribunal," is more accurately read, "Caesar's opponents were waiting to hold him accountable for his illegal actions as consul." Killing off Cato won't change the charges against Caesar nor will it change his blatant ambitions and the threat they posed to the Republic.
Caesar respected rules and institutions of Rome almost until the end, like Sulla (and unlike Marius, Pompey and Octavian who had make much more blatant violations of a Roman laws than them).
Dictator was still a recognized office of the Republic and came only when Caesar needed to affirm his hold on Rome.
Not saying who Caesar was perfect or innocent of everything but, like Sulla, more often than no5 his hands were forced by his enemies who gave him very few alternatives...
Sure Caesar was ambitious but at the same time he cared for Rome and being the leader of the popular party he was a longtime target of the optimates like Crassus and also Pompey between the death of Sulla and his wedding to the daughter of Metello Scipio (and after that the optimates still looked down to Pompey because they thinked he was not a full Roman for the origins of his family)
 
Caesar respected rules and institutions of Rome almost until the end, like Sulla (and unlike Marius, Pompey and Octavian who had make much more blatant violations of a Roman laws than them).
Dictator was still a recognized office of the Republic and came only when Caesar needed to affirm his hold on Rome.
Not saying who Caesar was perfect or innocent of everything but, like Sulla, more often than no5 his hands were forced by his enemies who gave him very few alternatives...
Sure Caesar was ambitious but at the same time he cared for Rome and being the leader of the popular party he was a longtime target of the optimates like Crassus and also Pompey between the death of Sulla and his wedding to the daughter of Metello Scipio (and after that the optimates still looked down to Pompey because they thinked he was not a full Roman for the origins of his family)

Well I think we'll just have to agree to disagree here. But either way, I didn't mean to derail the thread, I'll give my honest opinion about the POD you listed.

If Caesar and the optimates come to an agreement in 50 BCE, Caesar would win the consulship for 49 BCE, returning to Rome in triumph etc etc. He would probably pass a few reforms during this consulship, most importantly would be a grant of citizenship to all inhabitants of cisalpine Gaul, making every adult male in the entire province loyal to him personally, effectively insulating him from prosecution forever, since this overwhelming mass of new voters would ensure that at least one office every year (whether its the tribuneship, the praetorship, or the consulship) would be monopolized by his clients/supporters. At this time, Pompey either tries to start up the civil war on his own or fades into political obscurity, unable to compete with the charisma, military record, and base of support that Caesar wielded. We'd probably either see the civil war start again later (after his next proconsulship in Syria or wherever), or his assassination by the optimates, albeit probably much later than IOTL. If Caesar dies of old age instead, he'd probably be succeeded by a series of civil wars between his lieutenants (Antony would probably have fallen by the wayside before this point). The Republic was more or less doomed by this point imho, and I don't think Caesar would have had the foresight to address the institutional problems facing the Republic, so within 20 years of Caesar's death, we'd probably see either the Empire come about in a form similar to IOTL or the complete collapse of the Republic into a Latin-speaking version of the Hellenistic kingdoms.
 
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