4th August 1914, Time To Throw Mahan Overboard?

What do the British have available to stop a Channel raid in summer 1914? The Grand Fleet is based on the west coast of Scotland and has no chance of interfering quickly. Mines and torpedos may take a toll but the HSF can shut down the troop convoys at least. I suppose the problems is that it can't keep them shut down when the GF turns up...

Wow. So a POD that produces better Army-Navy cooperation (shared Intel and estimations of arrivals) or puts a more aggressive Admiral at the head of the HSF or the Destroyer Force would result in a Battle of the Channel with a possible decimation of the BEF?

Intriguing...

Only what was moving that day and the German ships are not going to get away scott free.
 

Deleted member 94680

I seem to recall that the BEF was shipped over a few regiments at a time (?). So I figure you might get a couple ships sunk, a few others badly scared but escaping to safety, and some delays.
Somebody check me on this...

Only what was moving that day and the German ships are not going to get away scott free.

If done properly or with a bit (lot?) of luck, the Germans could have a successful raid and the knock on effect would be a delay until security had been beefed up. If the first attack is a destroyer swarm, would a second days action with U-boats be possible? The delay in transport would mean an understrength BEF assembled ashore, would the result of that be no Marne? Would the result of that be the Germans outflank the French or win the race to the sea? Amazing possibilities...
 
If done properly or with a bit (lot?) of luck, the Germans could have a successful raid and the knock on effect would be a delay until security had been beefed up. If the first attack is a destroyer swarm, would a second days action with U-boats be possible? The delay in transport would mean an understrength BEF assembled ashore, would the result of that be no Marne? Would the result of that be the Germans outflank the French or win the race to the sea? Amazing possibilities...

If you haven't read BlondieBC's timeline, he wrote up a scenario where I don't recall the transports suffering serious attack, but the Grand Fleet's positioning covering the landings combined with the fact that they'd gone out there without destroyer escort allowed them to get ambushed by a swarm and uboats and get massacred. If you combined that idea with a raid on the Channel as bait, I wonder if you could damage the Grand Fleet and disrupt the BEF without sustaining too much damage to the HSF.
 
If done properly or with a bit (lot?) of luck, the Germans could have a successful raid and the knock on effect would be a delay until security had been beefed up. If the first attack is a destroyer swarm, would a second days action with U-boats be possible? The delay in transport would mean an understrength BEF assembled ashore, would the result of that be no Marne? Would the result of that be the Germans outflank the French or win the race to the sea? Amazing possibilities...

A delayed BEF, one that bumps into the Germans somewhere other than OTL, possibly under much less favorable circumstances... Yes, that could be interesting.
 
The HSF was unwilling to send many larger, modern TBs to assist Marinkorps Flanders. On the occasions when it did, they disturbed the British far more than the actual effects warranted (accidents, poor planning and timid execution reduced effectiveness in several instances).

But what if the HSF was willing to risk more of its light units more often? I would think that repeated, unpredictable, determined and well-planned sorties against the British drifter line, barrage forces and Downs shipping, could seriously disrupt British operations.

Sinking a couple dozen drifters at a time, two or three times, would seriously endanger the net barrage sustainability. Likewise for the Dover Straits mine barrage. This helps the U-boats.

Breaking into the Downs even once could result in the mass sinking of perhaps a hundred merchant ships -- if done properly, with little loss of civilian life. Could also prompt the neutrals to protest the British forcing their ships to concentrate in the Downs for inspection yet not providing satisfactory protection (?).

The coastal convoys were very scantily protected -- usually by one or two armed trawlers -- so striking these repeatedly might yield useful results.

And as Admiral Bacon pointed out, resources were stretched so thin that the Navy was never able to give him as many ships as he needed to secure all points properly. In fact, reading his book on the Dover Patrol makes you realize how terrifyingly vulnerable the area was during nighttime.
 

Deleted member 94680

If you haven't read BlondieBC's timeline, he wrote up a scenario where I don't recall the transports suffering serious attack, but the Grand Fleet's positioning covering the landings combined with the fact that they'd gone out there without destroyer escort allowed them to get ambushed by a swarm and uboats and get massacred. If you combined that idea with a raid on the Channel as bait, I wonder if you could damage the Grand Fleet and disrupt the BEF without sustaining too much damage to the HSF.

I haven't read the TL in question, but the Grand Fleet getting "massacred" by U-boats and destroyers sounds a bit German-wank tbh. You could damage the GF but it's unlikely to come cost-free and that hurts the HSF more than the British.

A delayed BEF, one that bumps into the Germans somewhere other than OTL, possibly under much less favorable circumstances... Yes, that could be interesting.

Well worth looking into...
 
I would have though the idea of HSF heavy units venturing into the channel would by the stuff of dreams for Jellicoe and the Admiralty.

Surely the RN response would be to hammer them with destroyer and torpedoboat attacks, and then park the GF at the eastern end, waiting for them to try and come back out. the HSF would have been trapped, fighting superior numbers with no clear avenue of escape. It would have been mauled at best, annihilated at worst.
 
I would have though the idea of HSF heavy units venturing into the channel would by the stuff of dreams for Jellicoe and the Admiralty.

Surely the RN response would be to hammer them with destroyer and torpedoboat attacks, and then park the GF at the eastern end, waiting for them to try and come back out. the HSF would have been trapped, fighting superior numbers with no clear avenue of escape. It would have been mauled at best, annihilated at worst.

Given that the hsf could not totally destroy the bef at sea risking total destruction of itself is not a commensurate with the potential rewards. A destroyer or two to delay the bef by a couple of days is a reasonable exchange but the heavies must be able to reach safety if the gf threatens.
 
The HSF was unwilling to send many larger, modern TBs to assist Marinkorps Flanders. On the occasions when it did, they disturbed the British far more than the actual effects warranted (accidents, poor planning and timid execution reduced effectiveness in several instances).

But what if the HSF was willing to risk more of its light units more often? I would think that repeated, unpredictable, determined and well-planned sorties against the British drifter line, barrage forces and Downs shipping, could seriously disrupt British operations.

Sinking a couple dozen drifters at a time, two or three times, would seriously endanger the net barrage sustainability. Likewise for the Dover Straits mine barrage. This helps the U-boats.

Breaking into the Downs even once could result in the mass sinking of perhaps a hundred merchant ships -- if done properly, with little loss of civilian life. Could also prompt the neutrals to protest the British forcing their ships to concentrate in the Downs for inspection yet not providing satisfactory protection (?).

The coastal convoys were very scantily protected -- usually by one or two armed trawlers -- so striking these repeatedly might yield useful results.

And as Admiral Bacon pointed out, resources were stretched so thin that the Navy was never able to give him as many ships as he needed to secure all points properly. In fact, reading his book on the Dover Patrol makes you realize how terrifyingly vulnerable the area was during nighttime.


Bacon does make some good points, his statement that uboats are a stilleto and destroyers were a rapier has stcuk with me for ages, he asserts that the Germans should have made better use of their rapier to really carve up the shipping in The Downs.

Imagine then if the Germans had Newport as well as Ostend and Zebrugge, or for vastly more far reaching results if they had Dunkirk, Calais and Bolougne! If the Germans have a big port and stattion a cruiser at this forward location the British might even have to split the HSF to provide escalation dominance in the Channel. But could their OTL Marine division capture any of these ports?
 
Though my earlier post was a little 'tongue in cheek' It seems to have stirred things up! I was deliberate in suggesting that the HSF only send the pre-dreads down the channel (they have to be considered expendable) The RN will have to counter at least with a comparable number of P-D's but as I expostulated if enough damage is done then the GF might be sortied to at least intercepted and punish the 'Hun' on their way home. In this scenario I could envisage the GF BC haring off ahead and hence creating an opportunity for the HSF to intercept and defeat them in detail. Also a few mine field traps and lurking U boats could do another 'Audacious' type sinking to the GF units.
 

Deleted member 94680

Though my earlier post was a little 'tongue in cheek' It seems to have stirred things up! I was deliberate in suggesting that the HSF only send the pre-dreads down the channel (they have to be considered expendable) The RN will have to counter at least with a comparable number of P-D's but as I expostulated if enough damage is done then the GF might be sortied to at least intercepted and punish the 'Hun' on their way home. In this scenario I could envisage the GF BC haring off ahead and hence creating an opportunity for the HSF to intercept and defeat them in detail. Also a few mine field traps and lurking U boats could do another 'Audacious' type sinking to the GF units.

That was pretty much the plan at Jutland? Didn't work out too well for the HSF there you'll need a POD here to make it any better.

I was wondering, what about the lack of Room 40 intel in this scenario? The Admiralty didn't get Room 40 up and running until November '14, after receiving the German code books from the Russians. If this "Battle of the Channel" starts in August '14, then the British are going to have to rely solely on scouting forces and observers finding the German ships. This gives the HSF a much better chance of pulling off a surprise action. Or two...
 
That was pretty much the plan at Jutland? Didn't work out too well for the HSF there you'll need a POD here to make it any better.

I was wondering, what about the lack of Room 40 intel in this scenario? The Admiralty didn't get Room 40 up and running until November '14, after receiving the German code books from the Russians. If this "Battle of the Channel" starts in August '14, then the British are going to have to rely solely on scouting forces and observers finding the German ships. This gives the HSF a much better chance of pulling off a surprise action. Or two...

The thing is that the massed Grand Fleet is on station in the North Sea (being quite nervous about submarines actually) ready to respond to a sortie in force while the BEF deploys.. Now I do see a reasonably good chance for major units of the Kaiserliche Marine slipping past and into attack positions but people do need to be aware that the GF arriving in massed ranks is the likely response to large capital ship incursions. Not necessarily something that will invalidate people's plan but it needs to be something they should be aware of in posting outcomes.
 
Once the hsf heavies get beyond the dover narrows it's pretty much fucked, the gf would be happy to lose almost all of its ships to destroy the hsf. that is fine if the hsf can destroy the bef, a fleet for an army is a fair trade especially since the hsf would take a lot the gf with it. but given the bef took several days to get to france the target is a division at best, which isn't worth the destruction of the hsf.
 
The penetration of the Channel doesn't have to be too deep, the Newhaven-Boulogne route took 97% of the BEF stores, 80% of troops went Southampton-Le Harve.

However an easier target might be the Royal Marines; they went to Ostend on 26/8 and left on 31/8, they went to Dunkirk 19-20/9 and the RN Division Zebrugge-Antwerp 4-5/10. All of these movements were at least a Brigade in size and on the 'good' side of the Dover narrows, so are possible opportunities for smaller forces to strike significant blows. This is the sort of thing the navy could do to guard the flank of the army.
 
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