4 POD's (1900-1904) to avoid World War?

Justin Pickard · Mar 8, 2005

I am currently in the process of brainstorming what I hope will become my first major alternate timeline. My ultimate aim is, starting in 1900, to channel the rivalries of WW1 into an earlier series of colonial wars (initially centred around Morocco), and thus avoid World War. All input is most welcome.

Century's Dawn: 1900-1904

POD #1: April 4, 1900 - An anarchist shoots at the Prince of Wales (Albert Edward, OTL Edward VII) during a visit to Belgium. He dies from the bullet wounds three days later. The nation enters mourning.

POD #2: July 30, 1900 - Duke Alfred of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha survives a close brush with throat cancer (In OTL it kills him).

Upon Queen Victoria's death on January 22, 1901, her grandson becomes King George V of the United Kingdom, at the age of 35.

POD #3: March 6, 1901 - In Bremen, an assassin kills Kaiser Wilhelm II. He is suceeded by his son, the crown prince, who is withdrawn from military training in Potsdam at the age of eighteen, to become Kaiser Wilhelm III of Germany.

The German Chancellor, Bernhard von Bülow, siezes upon the opportunity afforded by Kaiser Wilhelm II's death to strengthen the role of Chancellor at the expense of that of the monarch.

POD #4: February 5, 1904 - US Republican politician Marcus Alonzo Hanna survives a brush with typhoid fever. His popular position within the party causes a party split in the run up to the 1904 US election. Support for Hanna as the presidential candidate faces atrkopposition from supporters of Roosevelt. Roosevelt ultimately wins over the majority of the party, but with his popularity somewhat damaged.

(Without the input of Edward VII, April 1904 passes with no ‘Entente Cordiale’ between the UK and France)

With a divided Republican Party, the Democrat candidate - Alton B. Parker - experiences a suprise victory in the November 1904 US Presidential Election, becoming the 27th president of the US. Shortly after the election, Theodore Roosevelt announces his impending retirement from Politics.

-----

Thoughts?

Justin Pickard · Mar 8, 2005

War in Morocco: 1904-1909

November 1904 - After a couple of months of covert backroom talks and political manovering meet with apparent deadlock, the French openly express their ambitions with regards to Morocco; notifying the other European powers of their intention of establishing a protectorate, whilst respecting Spanish interests in the region. German Chancellor Bülow responds with threats of military action, and a message of solidarity to the Sultan.

TO BE CONTINUED...

Grey Wolf · Mar 8, 2005

I like it

Multiple PODs upset some people, but if one took the theoretical position that all events that did not happen but might have done are 50-50 then a timeline in which several of these come down on the other side of the coin independently of each other makes as much sense as OTL

Nothing seems unlikely or improbable

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Abdul Hadi Pasha · Mar 8, 2005

I think you may be overconcentrating on the nations involved to the expense of the things that caused tensions - for instance, doing something about the Balkans would be profitable in avoiding a general war. I tend to think it would be fairly hard to generate a general war from colonial disputes, although sparks can add up, and Morocco is probably a more serious spot than most.

David S Poepoe · Mar 8, 2005

The Entente Cordial is bound to happen even without Edward VII. German machinations on the continent and overseas, as well as the influence of Tirpitz, are going to drive Britain and France together. The way to Anglo-French good relations is started with the lapsing of the Three Emperors' League.

I would also say that the ATL is driven too much by assassinations. There appears to be all too many convenient anarchists.

Justin Pickard · Mar 8, 2005

January 1905 - Whilst in St. Petersburg there is a massacre at the Winter Palace, French troops are deployed to Morocco. Bülow offers German military support to the Sultan of Morocco, and French forces are greeted with an unexpected uprising of native resistance.

February 1905 - After talks with Chancellor Bülow in Bremen (The Bremen Agreement), PM Arthur Balfour agrees - on behalf of the British Government, to dispatch a Royal Naval presence - consisting of six Majestic class battleships, to act as "peacekeeping" forces. Whilst not explicitly supporting the Germans, this is taken by the French as an outright declaration of hostility. Bülow begins futile attempts to enlist Parker’s support over Morocco, but the US is determined to remain neutral.

Justin Pickard · Mar 8, 2005

David S Poepoe said:
I would also say that the ATL is driven too much by assassinations. There appears to be all too many convenient anarchists.

Too many convenient anarchists?! You have to be kidding me. All of the assassination-related POD's in this timeline are based on actual events, that happened in real life. *rolling of eyes* Honestly, OTL is quite weird enough, thank you very much...

David S Poepoe · Mar 8, 2005

You seem to be forgetting the involvement of the Spanish in the Moroccan Question. They were a bit ticked off with French highhandness in the matter also. The funny thing is that Germany actually had economic interests in Morocco and the French were pulling all these stunts trying not to get caught and they were.

Kyle · Mar 8, 2005

Nationalism

Little is being done to address the near-vitriolic nationalism in the various countries. You can remove the major players by having them assassinated or having them lose elections, but unless you do something about the publics that were egging them on, WWI probably still happens.

Can't think of anything yet. Something bad happening in the homeland leads a country to de-emphasize African colonialism to bring troops back home. A corresponding blow to the national ego.

Grey Wolf · Mar 9, 2005

I think people are equally guilty of OVER-EMPHASISING it

Because it became important in OTL does not mean it has to in an ATL

History is written by the victors and they are going to create a cohesive narrative out of disparate events

In OTL, nationalism had been around what 100 years in its current form ? And its most recent forms, the First and Second Balkan Wars had not brought general conflict.

And at the same time imperialism was both an adjunct to and a counter to nationalism. For example look at the Italians in Libya

Grey Wolf

NHBL · Mar 9, 2005

One option...

December, 1910: Admiral von Tirpitz and senior aides are giving Kaiser Wilhelm II the grand tour of his newest toy, SMS Posen. Wilhelm II, von Tirpitz, and 700 officers and men die when the magazine spontaneously explodes. (This has happened to numerous battleships historicly.)
The tragedy puts his son, Wilhelm II, on the throne (or, alternatively, he goes up with Possen as well, if a different ruler is needed to make this possible.)
The new leadership makes overtures to Britain on the basis of, "We need a fleet to protect our colonies, but we don't need to challenge the Royal Navy" A ratio of about 2:1 in the Royal Navy's favor is set-perhaps by treaty, perhaps in an informal understanding.
This could bring about a weakening of the Entente Cordial, since Britian no longer needs to worry about being overtaken by the power of the High Seas Fleet--and seperates herself from European affairs.
Germany completes the 5 Kaisers, bringing her up to a total of 12 dreadnoughts, then slows her headlong building pace. With no pressure from Britian, there is some time to consider an optimised new design.
When an incident that could trigger a general war occurrs, Britain acts as a mediator, and, as a result, wars are relatively small.

Othniel · Jul 8, 2005

I remeber I had a scenario in which the pro-Austrian King of Serbia wasn't assinated in 1903 and that Serbia became an Austrian allie...

Arizona Ranger · Jul 8, 2005

Or WI

Alexandra dies giving birth to her son Alexei who passes away shortly thereafter...Nicholas II devestated by this tragedy steps back from Russian Politics and therefore more reforms take place...He also agrees to a more productive peace with Japan at Portsmouth thus saving Russian Honour...

With proper reforms and the absence of Alexandra, no Rasputin or Palace Shennanigans and no growing support for Lenin as well ...

David S Poepoe · Jul 8, 2005

Arizona Ranger said:
Or WI

Alexandra dies giving birth to her son Alexei who passes away shortly thereafter...Nicholas II devestated by this tragedy steps back from Russian Politics and therefore more reforms take place...He also agrees to a more productive peace with Japan at Portsmouth thus saving Russian Honour...

With proper reforms and the absence of Alexandra, no Rasputin or Palace Shennanigans and no growing support for Lenin as well ...

Its seems you may have adverted the Russian Revolution, which one of course is debateble.

Glen · Jul 8, 2005

Justin, I'm afraid that your suggested PODs may just result in an earlier WWI, not its aversion. The Morrocan Crisis a few years from your first POD had the potential to do just that.

However, let's say for the sake of argument that you do manage to have the powers squabbling in 'colonial' wars over Morroco without triggering a total war. How will this in and of itself avert WWI?

As for the 'close brush with throat cancer' POD, I'd advise simply never having it happen. It is much more realistic for him to never have developed cancer than to survive it at this point in history.

IMO, if you remove Wilhelm II and his line from the throne of Germany, that in and of itself could lead eventually to averting a world war. He wrecked Bismarck's diplomatic achievements, both in his policies and his reckless comments, and his heir was little better. Remove him, and you might even be able to have a little scuffle in Morroco that might remain contained.

Othniel · Jul 8, 2005

And what about the Ranchivist France created by Germany?

Dave Bender · Jul 8, 2005

Kill an incompetent leader

Killing Kaiser Wilhelm II, Czar Nicholas, or Kaiser Franz Joseph gives you a reasonable chance to avoid WWI. Here are a few ways to kill Kaiser Wilhelm II:

Feb 6 1901. In Bremen Kaiser Wilhelm II is hit in the head by a piece of railroad iron thrown by Dietrich Weiland. The wound was not serious.

Throw a larger chunk of iron. Or a bullet.

1903. Kaiser Wilhelm II has a polypus removed from his throat. He recovers completely.

The polypus is cancerous, and discovered too late. Within a year he dies of throat cancer. Similar to what happened to his father (Frederich III)

1908. Kaiser Wilhelm II gives an interview that is published in the British newspaper "Daily Telegraph". His words are poorly chosen, and the article causes Germany much diplomatic embarrassment. When the international storm breaks Kaiser Wilhelm II offers to resign. Unfortunately he is talked out of resigning.

Kaiser Bill's resignation is accepted. The only question is whether he will be "retiring due to declining health" or "died after a short illness".

Othniel · Jul 8, 2005

Acualty if you kill good old Franz doesn't that let his hier ascent and thus prevent the assination of the Archduke?

Nicole · Jul 8, 2005

Killing Franz Josef would likely cause an Austro-Hungarian Civil War, which could escalate into WW1, unless you maybe kill off Franz Ferdinand in the process as well...

Othniel · Jul 8, 2005

Imajin said:
Killing Franz Josef would likely cause an Austro-Hungarian Civil War, which could escalate into WW1, unless you maybe kill off Franz Ferdinand in the process as well...

A premature heart attack in which Franz Josef dies and Franz Ferdinand has rightful claim to the throne?