3rd parties in the House

whats the latest POD (early 1990s?) that one or a few small American parties to have a hand of seats in the House of Representatives(1-5) how would having Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists in Congress change things?
 
The Reform Party seems like it could've gotten a few candidates elected without ASB intervention. If fate smiles upon them, by now they could (maybe) be a small but not-insignificant 3rd party like the LibDems in Britain.
 
There was that election a few years back where Jim Gilchrist, the Minutemen immigration activist, ran for Congress as an American Independent candidate. I think that's the California branch of the Constitution Party. He finished in third place, but he did get around 25% of the vote. Maybe he motivates a few more of his supporters to come out, the Republicans get too complacent, and he achieves a fluke win? That might be possible, but I don't really know if the Constitution Party could build on that. I think he'd be their one seat.

The only other seat I can think of is Tom DeLay's. Due to an election law, The Republican's had no one on the ballot in the election where he stood down, and the Libertarian candidate asked for the Republicans to endorse him. I think he said he'd vote with the Republicans on procedural issues. In either event, the Republicans decided to endorse a write in candidate, and lost the seat to the Democrats. Had they endorsed the Libertarian I think he'd have had a great shot. He'd be a one termer unless he switched his party when he was up for reelection in 2008. For another possibility, maybe Ron Paul could do it, running as a Libertarian? He has a nationwide following which would allow him to fundraise easily, and he's beaten the party's machine before. I think given the unique stature he has now, he could run and win as a Libertarian, but when he steps down the seat would probably go back to the Republicans.

I don't know enough about the Greens to comment, though they have their enclaves of strength, and are probably stronger than the other minor parties.

In any case, while I think it's possible under the right circumstances, I don't see third parties as ever having much of an impact even if they got into Congress, unless they were able to field and elect several strong candidates in various districts. Otherwise, they'd be almost completely marginalized in such a large chamber.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Ross Perot's success as a third-party candidate in 1992 was based on public discontent over the federal budget situation (which was not nearly as bad as it is today, by the way). Perot's success sort of frightened both the Republicans and the Democrats a bit, and was a major factor in pushing both major parties towards a balanced budget, which was finally achieved in 1998.

Perot tried to make use of the momentum and campaign structure from his presidential run to create the Reform Party. It faltered for two key reasons. First, as mentioned above, the two major parties began taking the issue seriously and thereby removed the main impetus behind Perot's success. Second, the Reform Party was soon basically taken over by people who were either ideological nuts or "black helicopter types".

If things had been a bit different- if the budget situation had gotten worse rather than better, and if the people who gravitated to the Reform Party were genuine concerned citizens rather than crazy folks- then I can see the Reform Party picking up some seats in the House in the late 1990s, as well as in som state legislatures. If this had happened, I think we might also have seen a few Republicans or Democrats abandoning their parties and joining the Reformists.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The only other seat I can think of is Tom DeLay's. Due to an election law, The Republican's had no one on the ballot in the election where he stood down, and the Libertarian candidate asked for the Republicans to endorse him. I think he said he'd vote with the Republicans on procedural issues. In either event, the Republicans decided to endorse a write in candidate, and lost the seat to the Democrats. Had they endorsed the Libertarian I think he'd have had a great shot. He'd be a one termer unless he switched his party when he was up for reelection in 2008.

I was actually involved in this race (in a minor way), and agree that the Libertarian could have won had he gotten Republican backing. Back the Republicans were always fairly confident that they would beat the Democrat (Nick Lampson) in 2008, and they didn't want to give the Libertarians in Texas a major symbolic victory that might have given the Texas Libertarian Party a massive boost throughout the state. In many recent legislative races, the Republicans have lost to the Democrats by margins considerably smaller than the vote share gained by the Libertarians, and this has worried them a lot.

For another possibility, maybe Ron Paul could do it, running as a Libertarian? He has a nationwide following which would allow him to fundraise easily, and he's beaten the party's machine before. I think given the unique stature he has now, he could run and win as a Libertarian, but when he steps down the seat would probably go back to the Republicans.

Ron Paul has, without question, the best constituency operation of any Texas congressman. I knew a guy who worked on the campaign of his Democrat opponent, Shane Sklar, in 2006, and he told me that hardly anyone in his district graduates from high school without getting a congratulatory letter from his office, and hardly anyone calls his office without getting a staffer on the phone within minutes who is able to help them out. That's the kind of stuff that keeps good congressmen in office. If he decided to run as a Libertarian, he wouldn't be a shoe-in (the Republicans would LOVE to get rid of him), but he would stand a fairly good chance.


I don't know enough about the Greens to comment, though they have their enclaves of strength, and are probably stronger than the other minor parties.

They had a person elected to the Maine State Legislature a few years ago, and I seem to recall hearing about Democratic state legislators in New Jersey and Arkansaw switching to the Greens when they learned that the state Democratic party wouldn't be supporting them for reelection. All of them were subsequently knocked out of office, though. If the Greens got their act together and focused on a few key seats (like their compatriots in England have just done), they could probably stand a chance at getting a seat or two. But they're always too busy arguing with each other about who's the Greenest one of all.

In any case, while I think it's possible under the right circumstances, I don't see third parties as ever having much of an impact even if they got into Congress, unless they were able to field and elect several strong candidates in various districts. Otherwise, they'd be almost completely marginalized in such a large chamber.

I think that any third party in America wich got a few seats in the House of Representatives could only survive if they were able to carve out a clearly-distinct position from the two major parties on issues the Reps and Dems would rather be swept under the carpet (i.e. the national debt, the "empire of bases" overseas, and especially election reform), AND avoid having the media create an unfavorable narrative about their presence in the House (i.e. these people are completely crazy and are certain to get kicked out in the next election).
 
I think if Nader focused on a smaller target than the Presidency there could be a small Green party presence in the House. The Green party could be seen as a legitimate choice rather than just a spoiler. He gets a bad rap as the dude who made Bush president IOTL.

Actually, I may vote for the Green candidate in Illinois senate race this Nov. If you know anything about the race you understand why. I'd rather go with the third unknown when the two knowns are douchebag and turd sandwich. Sorry to get political :rolleyes: I think that is a sentiment that could prove powerful in recent American politics.
 
whats the latest POD (early 1990s?) that one or a few small American parties to have a hand of seats in the House of Representatives(1-5) how would having Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists in Congress change things?
It has happened in the past. Both the Progressives (1912-8) and the Socialist Party of America (1912) have managed to elect at least one representative to the House.

As you can see, they didn't last very long.

In the Progressives case, they did hold the balance of power for a short time in a divided House, and formed a coalition, effectively being the kingmaker on who got to be Speaker and controlled the committees. But their influence was short lived, and eventually they all went into the political wilderness or folded back into the Republican Party.
 
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