32 county Ireland

eoinc

Banned
What if Michael Collins got Ireland back all 32 counties in Ireland?
Would the troubles have happened? Or would there have been a unionist war?
 

eoinc

Banned
Idea ?

Hi I'm Irish you might not answer because I know there aren't many Irish people on this. But if you have any knowledge of this event could you please post a reply. Thank you . :)
 
What if Michael Collins got Ireland back all 32 counties in Ireland?
Would the troubles have happened? Or would there have been a unionist war?

Putting to one side how Collins is meant to do this (Britain wasn't going to give away the north and at the time of OTL's Anglo-Irish Truce the IRA was verging on collapse due to shortages of supplies) the Ulster counties under rule from Dublin would make the Troubles look fantastic. Remember the Troubles were the efforts of a minority in the six counties fighting against British forces. If roles were reversed then you have a majority (the Ulster Unionists) fighting against a less formidable force. And I wouldn't hold out on the Ulstermen backing down: they were ready to fight being ruled by Dublin before the war intervened, the pro-imperial sentiment sparked by Ulster's participation in the war won't have done anything to change that.
 

eoinc

Banned
Fianna Fail

Yes , but if Michael Collins did get all 32 counties , then there would be no Fianna Fail. Would this mean Sinn Fein would take over for the long term?
 
As Ulster says it'd be the troubles times a million.
Not only was the majority in the north quite commited to remaining in the union but they were also (quite rightly as it turns out) scared shitless of the power the catholic church could hold in an independant Ireland.
Were Britain to try such a thing...political suicide for whoever does it (turning his back on loyal British citizens like that for no good reason) and most likely solution for Ireland is it ends up divided into two nations, a significantly larger and rather anti-catholic and nasty Rhodesia-esque Northern Ireland and the Republic.
 
Too late...

I think it was too late for Michael Collins to pull this off. If you want a 32 county Ireland, I can, right off, see a couple of ways, but they are long shots.

Option one: Home Rule gets pased, but the Great War doesn't break out. The "Loyalists" were prepared to use force against the British to fight Home Rule. This could have spiraled into Civil War, with some officers refusing to obey orders to enforce Home Rule. The Home Rule bill that passed, and wasn't implemented due to the war, had no opt out provision for the north; the whole country was included.)

The Northern rebels get defeated eventually, but the problem remains...

Option Two--a long shot. Wolfe Tone and the rebels of '98 pull it off somehow, with French aid. That rebellion inculded lots of Protestants. Who knows if they could have made a real nation, but they might have...
 
Query, Collins survives. In 1939 he announces any bombing of any part of the Isand will be an act of war. He declares war Spring 1941.

Hitler thinks he can prevent the Royal navy using Southern ports by paratroop landing.

Nasty little war on the island with Nazis defetexd( and the IRA's reputation ruined because of attempts at colaboration
 
I think it was too late for Michael Collins to pull this off. If you want a 32 county Ireland, I can, right off, see a couple of ways, but they are long shots.

Option one: Home Rule gets pased, but the Great War doesn't break out. The "Loyalists" were prepared to use force against the British to fight Home Rule. This could have spiraled into Civil War, with some officers refusing to obey orders to enforce Home Rule. The Home Rule bill that passed, and wasn't implemented due to the war, had no opt out provision for the north; the whole country was included.)

The Northern rebels get defeated eventually, but the problem remains...

Option Two--a long shot. Wolfe Tone and the rebels of '98 pull it off somehow, with French aid. That rebellion inculded lots of Protestants. Who knows if they could have made a real nation, but they might have...

Or just have the act of union never go ahead.
'98 is even more of a shambles or never comes to pass. Ireland continues on as a seperate kingdom.
Not that I would want to live in such an Ireland, but who said a united outside the UK Ireland had to be good?
 
Maybe what if Ulster gets an Opt-Out from Home Rule?

Anyone up for the compromise?

Ulster with an opt out would be the best possibility for avoiding violence. Unfortunately IOTL the Nationalists were offered a 32 county Home Rule parliament immediately by Asquith. Then over time that was diluted: temporary exclusion for four Ulster counties, permanent exclusion for six counties. Just before WWI the Tories in the Lords attempted to amend the Bill to permanently exclude all nine counties.

The best POD for Ireland overall, I'd say, is Asquith instead initially offering Home Rule for all counties by referendum, permitting the northern counties to vote for exclusion. That way you'd have a twenty six county Home Rule state formed without any significant violence. Of course this would require the Liberals and Redmond to take the Ulstermen seriously: IOTL both severely underestimated Ulster's support for the Union. Alternatively there is always Redmond's preferred plan (Home Rule Within Home Rule, or autonomy for Ulster under the Dublin Parliament) but I don't really see Ulster being happy with anything less than maintenance of the Union
 
Bloody Civil War, Protestants are around 75% of Ulsters population at this point before a century of emigration and higher Catholic birthrates weakened their demographics majority and life in Ulster is still dominated by the Free Church and the Orange Order. This is going to make the Irish Civil War seem like a minor disagreement.
Not least because the sight of Protestant, Loyalist, Monarchists Britons fighting for their lives is going to send the early 20th Century Tory Party through the roof, even if the UK is somehow prevented from intervening (basically impossible) you are going to get tens of thousands of volunteers crossing the Irish Sea especially from Scotland.
 
As said above by 1921/22 it is simply far too late for a 32 County Irish state to be established as the bitterness on both sides is way too intense. One of the big objections Unionists had to Home Rule and why many Nationalists were so opposed to any compromise was that Ulster's industries were heavily dependent on the Imperial markets and would have been badly disadvantaged by the tarrifs that could have been imposed by the Parliament. There was a mentality among the Nationalists that saw Ulster as being a cash cow and unless it was included within the remit of Home Rule then there was little point in doing it.

One way around this would have been if the rest of Ireland had experienced the same degree of industrialisation as Ulster but this may well have meant that the groundswell of pressure for HR may never have happened. It would also have been beneficial if the Catholic Church hadn't become so influential in Irish politics, again that takes a much earlier POD, possibly an earlier end to the Penal Laws or perhaps Pitt faces down George III and brings in Catholic Emancipation on the back of the Act of Union allowing Irish Catholics to advance up the social ladder much earlier, Something the British and the Unionists failed to understand was that but again this may have delayed the Home Rule Movement significantly.

Something the British and the Unionists failed to understand was what Nationalists were most afraid of was permanent exclusion, while it was impossible for Ulster to be included in HR from the off, Asquith probably should have agreed for each excluded county to hold a referendum on exclusion every 10 or 20 years. Had this happened then with demographic change some of the Ulster counties would have come in over the following decades and if the Dublin Government had established a secular state instead of De Valera's vision of comely maidens dancing at the crossroads that was successful economically then even the most strongly Unionist counties such as Antrim and Down may have decided to join in.

Speaking as someone from a Unionist background I've always regretted that partition happened, something should have been worked out that satisfied everyone's concerns. Ireland has lost out from partition and all the subsequent division and conflict that came from two states that soon conformed to the sterotypes that each had of the other. :(
 
I agree that it is unlikely that Collins could have gotten all 32 counties into the Irish Free State. The six counties of Northern Ireland included 2 counties that were majority nationalist, so it was obvious the six counties were designated to keep as much territory as possible out of the Irish Free State while still keeping Unionists a majority (which explains why all 9 counties of Ulster were not included). However, for the sake of argument, let's explore.

1) I am assuming there is still an oath of loyalty to the British Crown and there is no republic. De Valera and others will still complain. That Collins managed to include all of Ireland is a major gain over OTL, but De Valera's people won't know this is a major coup. I still see a schism within Sinn Fein and probably a civil war.

2) The Unionists will likely wage their own war and not accept Dublin as the legitimate government. Taxes will not be paid, representatives will not be sent, and paramilitary organizations will be formed. However, I don't think there will be any conflict until Dublin attempts to enforce its rule which could be a while as long De Valera's faction is fighting. In other words, I don't see the Unionists invading and attacking nationalist areas although there may be some fighting in Protestant dominant areas to prevent the Nationalists from taking power. So there may be some initial fighting local to the six counties until a stable "border" is created.

3) Some areas of the six counties will be controlled by Dublin. County Fermanagh, County Tyrone, South Londonderry, South Armagh and South Down, and the City of Derry are largely nationalist. They will be loyal to Dublin. The Unionist controlled area is Belfast and the northeastern portion. In addition, Dublin also legally controls the territorial waters around Belfast and all of Ireland, but it will take time for any Irish Navy to assert actual control.

4) There is also likely to be an extended period of negotiation with the Unionists in an attempt to convince them to cooperate in exchange for specific pledges to be entered into law or the constitution.

5) The long term prognosis for Unionist defiance is not good. There are a lot of economic reasons for the Unionists to begin working with Dublin. The Protestants are the economic elite and they have a lot to lose. This is not the same as the Catholics during the Troubles who were economically marginal and actively discriminated against. They had much less to lose by their protests or violents than the Unionists now.

6) I think the government in Dublin would be content to let the Unionists to wither on the vine until they decide to cooperate with Dublin in return for major concessions. Different Irish leaders will be more prone to offer concenssions than others. If Collins is alive, I can see him granting the vast majority of Unionist demands. De Valera would likely be more obstinate.

7) After some point of time, Dublin will eventually resort to force to enforce its control over Belfast and other areas if negotiations fail. Given enough time to prepare, Dublin will win the conventional war. Casualties will be high in storming certain urban areas of Belfast, and the major areas of the city may be destroyed.

8) Assuming Dublin still grants significant concessions to the Protestants, and assuming that the Irish Navy can prevent arms smuggling from offshore into Belfast, long term guerilla warfare or terrorism is unlikely although the rest of the 1920s and 1930s may see sporadic attacks.

9) In World War II, there is a significant chance that the Irish government agrees to enter the war. After the war, chances of the Unionists resorting to terrorism is probably zero.
 
I see no way for this to happen, at lest not post-1900, the Ulster Unionists were armed, trained and ready to fight to the death to not be a part of an Catholic majority nation, the IRA on the other hand was never very large or well armed, also the UK was looking for ANYthing to get the British people willing to go to war to take Ireland on, thats the reason Collins grabbed the Free State with two hands, he knew it was the only way he could get any Ireland.
 
Couldn't the Home Rule bill - after being faced with Ulster's refusal to be part of that autonomous state - include a provision to an all-Ireland autonomy but allotting the unionist counties some kind of veto power and minimum quotas for the autonomous government?
What was the all-Ireland proportion of Catholics vs. Protestants back in the early 20th century btw?
 
What was the all-Ireland proportion of Catholics vs. Protestants back in the early 20th century btw?

Off the top of my head I think the percentages were approximately 70% in Northern Ireland (with sizeable majorities in Down and Antrim, and thinner ones elsewhere, especially in Fermanagh and Tyrone) and about 10% in the rest of Ireland (with a sizeable proportion of that being in Leinster).

And by the 20th century the Ulstermen weren't going to accept anything less than remaining part of the United Kingdom, regardless of vetoes, safeguards or Home Rule within Home Rule. The best part of half a million people signed the Ulster Covenant (some, purportedly, in blood). By 1913 the Ulster Volunteers had over a hundred thousand men. By 1914 they had 20,000 German rifles and over three million rounds of ammunition thanks to the Larne gunrunning, and plans were in place to seize crucial locations like hospitals and arms depots immediately if Home Rule were imposed. And with the Curragh Mutiny showing that many in the British Army were reluctant to fight the Ulstermen because they wanted to remain part of the UK the odds of Ulster being forced to accept Home Rule under duress are...slim.
 
Off the top of my head I think the percentages were approximately 70% in Northern Ireland (with sizeable majorities in Down and Antrim, and thinner ones elsewhere, especially in Fermanagh and Tyrone) and about 10% in the rest of Ireland (with a sizeable proportion of that being in Leinster).
Thanks.

And by the 20th century the Ulstermen weren't going to accept anything less than remaining part of the United Kingdom, regardless of vetoes, safeguards or Home Rule within Home Rule.
By Home Rule I meant the pre-WW1 proposal for autonomy within the UK, not the dominion status that was implemented afterwards.
Couldn't the Unionist view such a plan as a way to keep the whole island British, using their veto power to block any further separatist measures by the Nationalists?
 
By Home Rule I meant the pre-WW1 proposal for autonomy within the UK, not the dominion status that was implemented afterwards.
Couldn't the Unionist view such a plan as a way to keep the whole island British, using their veto power to block any further separatist measures by the Nationalists?

they could, but they didn't any homerule was big NO for them any idea of giving the Catholic Majority greater political power freaked them out greatly and they would gladly use force of arms to stop it from taking place.
 
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