3 way cold war after central power victory

Pod : world war 1 ends late 1917 or early 1918 with Germany getting the Congo and french colonies in central Africa with Germany leaving Belgium alone and ceding french speaking part of Alsace-Lorraine and keeping mitteleuropa in the east. Austria gains control of Balkans and Venice .Turkey gets Libya and Britain to stop sending aid the to Arabs

communists still win in Russian civil war .Mussolini comes to power in Italy and Italian style fascism takes power in France and Britain, the three form an alliance .

would a 3 way cold war between fascism/communism/capitalism be possible or would a second war be inevitable

would the ottomans be able to defeat the Arab revolt

How long would mitteleuropa last and what happen with decolonization or would it even happen at all
 
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Oo boy well first should the Germans win France will be getting squat
Second Austria is going to be such a mess I doubt it's going to have much Intrests in taking too much land and Third there will be no fascists.

In a CP victory Scenario odds are Germany gets its house in order and then proceeds to put down the Bolsheviks by force of arms in a second day war with Russia.
It's not terribly likely that one would end up with a 3 way cold war until you get an East asian power rise.
 
The communists would be rather weak in the event of a CP victory, but it's not impossible for them to stick around. The Germans won't want to invade Russia again, especially after years of bloody warfare.

The trickier issue is getting the German-dominated Europe to stick around. Look at the Septemberprogramm to see what the Germans wanted to do. Their ideas involved annexing parts of Poland, Belgium and Northern France, and setting up puppet regimes in Ukraine and the Baltics. This puts a LOT of unhappy people under German domination. So Mitteleuropa might not last long.
 
Oo boy well first should the Germans win France will be getting squat
Second Austria is going to be such a mess I doubt it's going to have much Intrests in taking too much land and Third there will be no fascists.

In a CP victory Scenario odds are Germany gets its house in order and then proceeds to put down the Bolsheviks by force of arms in a second day war with Russia.
It's not terribly likely that one would end up with a 3 way cold war until you get an East asian power rise.

Why will there be no fascists - even OTL the Italians went fascist - winning the war. In a losing war they will probably not be more democratic.

Concerning Austria - the chances of survival are higher than usually believed hereabouts ;), but they won't expand too much.

There were designs to create a Croat dominated Southern Kingdom encompassing Serbia - that might happen if the Hungarians allow the Croats to become independent from the Kingdom of Hungary - fat chance, Croatia is Hungarys door to the adriatic, they won't let it go, Taking in Serbia into Hungary makes the Hungarians (ethnic) position even worse than before. So aside from minor Border adjustments (like taking Novi Pazar for strategic reasons or the Lovcen,.) nothing will be taken (like they did not take much from Romania in the treaty of Bucharest.

Red Russia - complete possible, but smaller than OTL SU, depends also on the fate of Ukraine, can go both ways. Germany will be exhausted - even winning, the population will not want another war, so a War Red Russia/Prussia is unlikely. German troops will support the Baltic states and Finland, but not marching on Russian soil (even retreating by the terms of B-L)

France - well the AF is right wing, it could form a pseude fascist government, but the reds (socialist variety) might win too

Britain - I doubt it will go fascist, too conservative this country is, but I can see it in alliance with Frace and Italy - its in their interest to cooperate

So you get Entente-Mitteleuropa-Russia in a three way struggle (or more accurate a Mitteleuropa betwee two enemys who are not allied)

The Ottomans, well AS Turkey was sucessful to reverse some losses of the GW, it might evelop into a stable entity - if remaining somewhat aggressive it will be able to dominate the Arabs (who are not famous for cooperation and in reality still more a horde of desert warriors than forming a real army. A hell of a place if outside the towns, - that is if Britain plays nice - a Brit trained and supported arab nation could survive.

If the Turks manage to foster rivalries between Kurds, Shiites an Sunnites it probably can hold Irak and probably even Syria/Lebanon/Jordan if playing one minority against the others...
 

Deleted member 94680

The trickier issue is getting the German-dominated Europe to stick around. Look at the Septemberprogramm to see what the Germans wanted to do.

To see what some Germans wanted to do. Hardly a concrete proposal, linked in any way to reality.
"The government, finally, never committed itself to anything. It had ordered the September Programme as an informal hearing in order to learn about the opinion of the economic and military elites."
 

thorr97

Banned
Sounds like this POD is based around the Germans winning with their Spring Offensive / Ludendorff Offensive in 1918. Ceding Alsace-Lorraine back to the French would be a small price to pay for such a war ending victory that let the Germans keep their mitteleuropa gains. That territory means Germany now has access to sufficient farmland and mineral wealth that no British naval blockade will affect it. And it also gives the Kaiser some millions more subjects to draft into his army as well. In short, Germany is now fully on the same level as the UK when it comes to having a sufficient foundation to have its way in the world.

As to the Bolsheviks in Russia, they'll actually be an advantage for the Kaiser. The German high command had anticipated Lennin's coming to power and looked forward to "strangling the Communist state in its crib" once they'd wrapped things up with the Entente powers. Yes, the German people were war weary so any such strangling expedition wouldn't be likely until there'd been a brief pause at the Great War's end.

At that point, the Bolsheviks taking power in Russia would be all the excuse the Kaiser would need to have his troops on the march again. This time it would be to "save democracy from the Communists!" That and take revenge for their anti-aristocratic atrocities. Bear in mind that the Entente had deployed troops in Russia against the Bolsheviks even while the Great War was still raging (July 1918.) So there'd be little - if any - condemnation of imperial Germany "rushing to the aid" of the deposed democratic government of Russia and its putting down the Bolshevik threat.

In such a setting, I don't think a Communist Russian government would be long for this Earth. Not with as powerful and victorious Germany already occupying so much of what was formerly Russian territory.

What you'd then get was a rump-Russian state. Due to the Entente troops being on the ground and no one wanting to restart World War One, that Russian state could not be but a puppet who's strings led back to Berlin. The Entente wouldn't stand for it and the Kaiser probably wouldn't risk it at that point. So, all sides would satisfy themselves with an otherwise neutral - and thoroughly weakened - Russian democratic republic set up which had no hope of being an international force.

With the collapse of the Russian government during the Bolshevik's seizure of power and the ensuing military interventions of Britain, France, the US and Germany, I could easily see the Japanese stepping in to "assure that no Bolshevism infects Vladivostok" by putting as many of their troops there as it'd take to prevent that infection.

On the domestic political side, I think things'd be pretty damn bleak for the French and British governments that got their nations into World War One. Even with the regaining of that slice of sacred French soil, the cost incurred would be damningly high to the French people. For Britons, there'd be no way any government could stand after such sustained losses in the field and not gaining some glorious victory as a result.

No, I don't think Fascism would be likely in the UK. Militarism in France would be vying against Communism and everyone would be dealing with anti-authoritarianism as a result of the bloodbath the authorities inflicted upon their own people. Germany, having emerged the winner in the conflict, would be suffering this to a much lesser degree.

For the US, I'd expect the demand for Isolationism to be even stronger.
 
I can even envisage a 4 way cold war with Britain and France coming to a strategic economic arrangement that maximises their strengths. Russia will need a decade or even two to recover from WW1, but their innate power will arise sooner or later.
 
I generally see a possible 3-way cold war consisting of The Central Powers, France and Russia, and Britain and Italy. France is more likely to succumb to a communist revolution than a fascist coup and it will probably continue to have strong ties with the Soviet Union. With America still isolated, Britain may need to form stronger ties with Italy. In my opinion, this is the most plausible.
 
On the issue of Russia I feel it can go either way with reasonable explanation, you can make a case for the Germans supplying the whites and restoring the republic and you can make a case for an exhausted Germany to just say "Fuck it" and secure its eastern satellites. Depends on how and when they won.
 

thorr97

Banned
Alex1guy,

Per the conditions of the OP, Imperial Germany now has control over all the farmland it could ever need, it has control over all the mineral deposits it could ever need, and it has millions of new subjects - most of which are only too happy to be no longer serfs of the Czar.

Per the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Russia suffered huge territorial losses to Germany. That didn't exactly endear the Bolsheviks - who signed off on the treaty as the price of ending the war with Germany - to the rest of the Russian people. Thus the new Soviet Union is crippled and neutered rump state with nothing but enemies all around it. Enemies which already have their troops on Soviet soil attempting to kill and overthrow that new Bolshevik government. With a victorious Germany Brest-Litovsk stands whereas it was declared invalid in OTL. The Russian Civil War was a near run thing in OTL. In this ATL it wouldn't be as Germany would have both the power and the motivation to ensure Lenin's new Communist utopia was appropriately strangled in its crib. Even if otherwise exhausted, the active involvement of Imperial Germany along with the American, the British, the Canadian, and the French troops on the ground in Russia would all combine to drag down the Bolsheviks. Germany would be the chief beneficiary of this as their newly acquired territory borders what's left of Russia. Even just transferring weapons and equipment over to the Whites - let alone sending troops - would be more than enough to decisively crush the Reds.

At that point it'd be in Germany's best interest to ensure nothing of any consequence emerged in the new Russia. And the Entente powers would be too distant and too otherwise distracted to much contest that.

So, there'd be no Soviet Union of any lasting duration and certainly not one of any world wide effect.
 
Alex1guy,

Per the conditions of the OP, Imperial Germany now has control over all the farmland it could ever need, it has control over all the mineral deposits it could ever need, and it has millions of new subjects - most of which are only too happy to be no longer serfs of the Czar.

Per the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Russia suffered huge territorial losses to Germany. That didn't exactly endear the Bolsheviks - who signed off on the treaty as the price of ending the war with Germany - to the rest of the Russian people. Thus the new Soviet Union is crippled and neutered rump state with nothing but enemies all around it. Enemies which already have their troops on Soviet soil attempting to kill and overthrow that new Bolshevik government. With a victorious Germany Brest-Litovsk stands whereas it was declared invalid in OTL. The Russian Civil War was a near run thing in OTL. In this ATL it wouldn't be as Germany would have both the power and the motivation to ensure Lenin's new Communist utopia was appropriately strangled in its crib. Even if otherwise exhausted, the active involvement of Imperial Germany along with the American, the British, the Canadian, and the French troops on the ground in Russia would all combine to drag down the Bolsheviks. Germany would be the chief beneficiary of this as their newly acquired territory borders what's left of Russia. Even just transferring weapons and equipment over to the Whites - let alone sending troops - would be more than enough to decisively crush the Reds.

At that point it'd be in Germany's best interest to ensure nothing of any consequence emerged in the new Russia. And the Entente powers would be too distant and too otherwise distracted to much contest that.

So, there'd be no Soviet Union of any lasting duration and certainly not one of any world wide effect.
Would the same thing happen to France if it lost to Germany and underwent a communist revolt?
 

thorr97

Banned
ArtisticCritic,

Would the same thing happen to France if it lost to Germany and underwent a communist revolt?

Well, first off, that's not in the setting described by Noscoper. From his description, it seems the war ended with a truce but one where Germany clearly got a lot more of what it wanted. France got something out of it all, so there's that.

Now, if a couple years on the internal domestic chaos as a result of not winning the war rises to such a level as a Communist revolt happens there then it'd be both Germany and the UK stepping in to snuff it out. That'd be a right damned mess. While Germany might appreciate seeing their arch-rival, France, be so weakened and distracted, Germany also benefits from some stability existing on the Continent and the aristocrats would know all to well how toxic Communist ideology was having freshly put down the Bolshevik outbreak in Russia. So, there'd be no tolerance for a Communist state arising on Germany's doorstep. Sending German troops into France however, would probably cause a lot more problems than it could possibly solve. Supporting and arming the anti-Communist factions however, that would be the smartest move.
 
ArtisticCritic,



Well, first off, that's not in the setting described by Noscoper. From his description, it seems the war ended with a truce but one where Germany clearly got a lot more of what it wanted. France got something out of it all, so there's that.

Now, if a couple years on the internal domestic chaos as a result of not winning the war rises to such a level as a Communist revolt happens there then it'd be both Germany and the UK stepping in to snuff it out. That'd be a right damned mess. While Germany might appreciate seeing their arch-rival, France, be so weakened and distracted, Germany also benefits from some stability existing on the Continent and the aristocrats would know all to well how toxic Communist ideology was having freshly put down the Bolshevik outbreak in Russia. So, there'd be no tolerance for a Communist state arising on Germany's doorstep. Sending German troops into France however, would probably cause a lot more problems than it could possibly solve. Supporting and arming the anti-Communist factions however, that would be the smartest move.
Fair enough.
 

thorr97

Banned
Some while back there was a thread about the Spring Offensive / Ludendorff Offensive and I posted a POD of the Germans threatening the Entente with it while offering up Alsace-Lorraine in exchange for peace. My reasoning was that the French and British peoples were so war weary at that point that, if properly handled, such an offer might buffalo the Entente governments into accepting such a truce. It was not a well received ATL due to the enormous power that such a deal would've handed imperial Germany. Once the dust settled and Germany had assimilated its newly gained gains it would be THE colossus of Europe and soon powerful enough to challenge the British Empire on a toe to toe basis. Thus, even as attractive as ending the War to End All Wars might've been - as well as getting that sacred bit of French sacred soil back to the French - it would've come at too high an eventual price for the Entente to accept.

In this ATL however, it's running on the basis that such a deal - or something damn similar to it - was done.

And now we're presented with a Continental power that extends deep into what was Russia, that is fully capable of controlling everything that happens in the rest of Russia, and has the power to control, more or less, what happens in all the countries around it.

In such a setting I could easily see France enduring a series of near endless civil wars as one faction takes power due to the support it received - covertly or overtly - from Germany and / or from the UK. That faction would hold on to power but briefly as the resentment at its being merely a "puppet" regime would soon enough lead to another round of civil wars and the cycle of one faction's gaining the edge over the others due to its foreign support would continue. Same same in Russia.

Thus it'd suck to be around Paris or Moscow through the 30s, most likely, but then again, there'd most likely not be much movement toward another world war either. Germany would remain a Continental power as the goings on going on the Continent would be more than enough to keep it quite busy. And the UK would have its empire to manage which would keep it off the Continent quite nicely as well. And the US would be too deep into its splendid isolation to much bother with anyone else. Well, except for the Japanese that is. Hopefully there'd be a Washington Naval Conference in this ATL to sooth those pressures.
 
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