2nd Sino-Japanese war without ww2

Assuming the historical Sino Japanese war happens in 1937, but WW2 is avoided in Europe atleast ( handwaves Hitler away ), how does the Sino Japanese war play out?

Do the Chinese and Japanese just go on killing eachother for 10 - 20 years?

If yes to the above how much worse do the losses look vs our TL?

Without outside intervention, can either side really ever "win"?

How likely is outside intervention?

If it ends in some sort of bloody stalemate, what do the borders look like after one side gets the bomb and seals the status quo in?

How does this all impact the dynamics of the KMT CCP power struggle?
 
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The US didn't really supply Nationalist forces with substantial equipment/support until after Pear Harbor. I think the overall direction of the war still depends on whether or not American entry takes place. I feel that eventually the US would be drawn into the conflict and perhaps the British and French as well. All had territories and colonies near China that could be threatened by encroaching Japanese forces, though I assume Japanese leadership would be more conservative in their prosecution of the war since Britain and France aren't tied down by Italy and Germany.
 
No European War means no Japanese in Vietman and No Oil Embargo.
While Japan was unhappy with the US Steel Embargo [Panay affair] They were careful with the British/France Concessions.
However by the early 1940's Japan did control most of the China Coast, and most of China's industry.
I see then being more & more able to prevent the Chinese Armies from receiving Supplies and Equipment.
 
Perhaps by the mid 40s a cease fire is negotiated that has a partition between the new Nanking regime and Shek's regime? Might give the Japanese puppets some time to solidify their rule, but there will be a round two, for sure.
 
Of course, the wild card here is the Soviets (which is basically always the case :p)

Whilst there might not be an embargo against Japan, western opinion won't exactly be positive, especially the public after the bombings of civillians and use of Chemical Weapons. Assuming a peaceful situation in Europe, Stalin will feel very tempted to storm into Manchuria and Sakhalin whilst the Japanese and Chinese continue to tear each other apart.
 
No European War means no Japanese in Vietman and No Oil Embargo.
While Japan was unhappy with the US Steel Embargo [Panay affair] They were careful with the British/France Concessions.
However by the early 1940's Japan did control most of the China Coast, and most of China's industry.
I see then being more & more able to prevent the Chinese Armies from receiving Supplies and Equipment.

Don't forget that the UK and West in general were hesitant to act because they were worried about the Nazis. It depends on what the Nazis are replaced with, but a more concerted action and pressure on Japan is probable, especially once it becomes clear their goal is the conquest of China and not just maintaining Manchukuo.
 
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