2nd Napoleonic War

Napoleon III's desire to annex Belgium, the Rhineland etc is well known.

What if he had, before the start of the Austro Prussian war exploited it and demanded Bismark give him a firm carte blache on Belgium and Luxembourg in exchange for his carte blache on Austria and been ready to move with speed to achieve this?

Mid June: The Austro-Prussian war kicks off.
Early July: Napoleon, not wasting any time, attacks Belgium with little warning.
Late June: Britain is throwing at s*#t fit. Its view of France changes from partner to enemy, Britain delivers Napoleon and ultimatum to quit Belgium, he refuses and Great Britain declares war on France.
The French realizing they could be in for a long war order stepped up mobilization to counter threat of foreign intervention.
July: Austria's army is crushed at the battle of Koeniggratz, similarly the main Belgian field army is crushed near Waterloo.
August: Austria surrenders as historical, Belgium is fully occupied.
Holland sells Luxembourg to France under threat of potential invasion.
The Prussian garrison surrenders as the majority of the Prussian army is still deployed against the Austrians. The German press however is outraged at this and there are calls for war on the French. Bismarck has this in mind and as soon as peace is cemented with Austria Prussian forces start to deploy to the Rhine for an attack on the French.
France withdraws from Rome and the Italians move to occupy the Pope's land.

The French are blockaded by the British, and the Prussians are preparing to attack in the next few months, the French are in a stepped up state of mobilization now. The Austrians have no interest in more war. The Russians just seem relieved the Anglo-French partnership has been broken.

So, what happens next?
 
With Britain and Prussia (presumably just about to become Germany) joining forces France has little or no chance of victory.

France would loose all it's overseas colonies, Britain would get the middle eat, Germany would probably get anything else (can't remember if France held any of the Caribean Islands at this time, if they did they would go to Britain.)

The main consquence of this would be no WWI and no great collapse of the British Empire as a result. Germany would have its growth space overseas.

Not sure about Russia, the Tsar would not have been happy that France was wiped out, as Germany would now become it's primary enemy.
 
And Napoleon III would not be as audacious as his uncle - him going against the Low Countries and shattering the Anglo-French detente would be rather out of character.
 
I'm not so sure a Prussian victory is a total fait accompli.

First their army stocks are somewhat spent from the Austrian war, and it will take them time to properly mobilize against France.
Second, the Prussian army hasn't had time to fully digest the lessons from the Austrian war.
Third the South German States are likely to stay neutral imo under these circumstances.
Fourth the Prussians will need to leave some of their force watching Austria incase they get ideas about revenge ( which they could try ).
Fifth, Prussia has not had time to digest the new territories it annexed or recruit men from them.
Sixth, the North German army isn't integrated like it was in 1870.

Of course the British will rule supreme at sea and pick off the whole French colonial Empire, but I doubt they will land a large army on the continent, and if they do it will take time for them to.

During the time it would take for the British and Prussians to mobilize the French would also be much better prepared, especially if they can begin to utilize Belgian industry in a few months.
 
An attack out of the blue against Belgium - whose neutrality was guaranteed by the powers as late as 1838 - would not be audacious, it would be madness (considering also that Nappy is still licking his wounds after the Mexican adventure).

In 1870 the French showed the world that they were moving at a snail's pace: why should they be better in 1866? It is not even a given that the Belgians will fold up very soon, at least the major fortresses will take time to be reduced. In the meantime the British fleet will start shelling the French northern coast, and an expeditionary corps would be landed in Antwerp.

OTOH, the Prussians proved to have a good handle on the use of railways (and IIRC the railway line to the Prussian Palatinate is already in service).

The Austrians have not yet started sorting out their troubles with the Hungarians: no way they might think to go for another round (and if anyone thinks they might stay in the war, pls. remember that the Prussians are not so far from Vienna, and the Italians have reached the Isonzo).

Last but not least, why should the Dutch cave in so quickly and sell Luxembourg when there is a British ultimatum to France and almost a guarantee that the French will not get a free ticket to Belgium?

My guess is that latest by spring 1867 Nappy will have been washed and hung to dry, and the new European order will be hammered out by the winners in an ad-hoc conference (Bruxelles might be the right place for it).
 
And Napoleon III would not be as audacious as his uncle - him going against the Low Countries and shattering the Anglo-French detente would be rather out of character.

ASB-levels of out of character. After seeing the horrors of Magenta and Solferino during the Franco-Austrian War Louis-Napoléon was quite done with wars in general. After Magenta he railed against his supposed ally, King Victor Emmanuel of Piedmont-Sardinia, whose reinforcements had never arrived; after seeing the slaughter of Solferino Louis-Napoléon all-but collapsed, and had to take a peaceful fishing trip after the war before returning to Paris. By the 1850s/60s war was nothing like the 'glories' of the Napoleonic Era.
 
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