2nd Chantilly conferences - Russians ask for time off

What if at he conference the Russian in December 1915 say we can't do offensives next year. We need a year off to recover, the Murmansk railway needs completed to import supplies (completed March 1917 OTL), offensives can resume summer 1917.

These means no Lake Naroch or Brusilov offensives in 1916?

What are the effects:
a) Can the Russian Monarchy survive?
b) What are impact on Italian and Western fronts?
c) Impact on Romanian entry?
d) Impact on German leadership?
 

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With no offensives for a complete year, casualty rates may well drop. This assumes that the Germans launch no major offensives of their own, of course.

What in turn are the effects on A-H if there is no major Russian offensive action?
 
With no offensives for a complete year, casualty rates may well drop. This assumes that the Germans launch no major offensives of their own, of course.

What in turn are the effects on A-H if there is no major Russian offensive action?

Russian casualty rates may drop. French casulaties, on the other hand, are going to spike dramatically as the Germans launch their Verdun offensive and can now easily move their heavy and specialized offensive assets, and as their counter-attacks/spoiling offensives fail will be screaming for their allies to do SOMETHING to take some pressure off the Western front.
 

raharris1973

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Russian casualty rates may drop. French casulaties, on the other hand, are going to spike dramatically as the Germans launch their Verdun offensive and can now easily move their heavy and specialized offensive assets, and as their counter-attacks/spoiling offensives fail will be screaming for their allies to do SOMETHING to take some pressure off the Western front.

The Russians can treat succor to the French as a problem for the British to solve. Maybe it would work, maybe not.

Or, the Russians could relent and do late season attacks on the Germans to relieve pressure on France. In which case the Russians suffer. Maybe not as bad as Brusilov offensive, or maybe the same, or maybe worse.

---also---Was there a late 1916 or early 1917 conference that decided on the convergent entente offensives of 1917? If the Russians did not punt in 1916, 1917 would have been another good d time to punt.
 
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raharris1973

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What if at he conference the Russian in December 1915 say we can't do offensives next year. We need a year off to recover, the Murmansk railway needs completed to import supplies (completed March 1917 OTL), offensives can resume summer 1917.

These means no Lake Naroch or Brusilov offensives in 1916?

What are the effects:
a) Can the Russian Monarchy survive?
b) What are impact on Italian and Western fronts?
c) Impact on Romanian entry?
d) Impact on German leadership?

@Catspoke - Do the Russians mean absolutely no offensives at all on any front, or just no offensives in Europe against the Austrians or Germans?

It strikes me that the Russians probably could have made some conquests at Ottoman expense in Asia Minor without costing themselves a lot or risking a defeat.
 
The Russians can treat succor to the French as a problem for the British to solve. Maybe it would work, maybe not.

Or, the Russians could relent and do late season attacks on the Germans to relieve pressure on France. In which case the Russians suffer. Maybe not as bad as Brusilov offensive, or maybe the same, or maybe worse.

At which point London taps her foot impatiently and kindly but politely ask what in that case Moscow is doing with all those supplies and funds Britain is providing and underwriting for her. Considering they aren't being used productively on the Eastern front, most likely they'd be re-directed to the West since its going to be pretty hard to scrounge up the needed support for scratch at such short notice over that period of time. All in all, even if a defense and later Russian offensives can be cobbled together they're going to be less co-ordinated, organized and supplied in their own right, and likely to result in more Entente blood. Greater diplomatic rifts created between the Powers in this instance also improves the liklihood of separate peace talks at least being considered, and I imagine slows Romanian entry into the conflict.
 

raharris1973

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Hey, at least as long as it does not delay German USW and America joining the war, it's worth it. I think also that Russian internal shell-manufacturing capabilities were increasing until the October Revolution, certainly right up until the February Revolution.
 
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