28 Days Later outbreak timeline - Death of a Nation

When Zombies Attack!

I don't know if anyone has posted this, but I thought it might be helpful:

WHEN ZOMBIES ATTACK!: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF AN OUTBREAK OF ZOMBIE INFECTION

Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, Robert J. Smith

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University,
1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
Department of Mathematics, The University of Ottawa,
585 King Edward Ave, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa,
585 King Edward Ave, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5, Canada


Abstract

Zombies are a popular figure in pop culture/entertainment and they are usually portrayed as being brought about through an outbreak or epidemic. Consequently, we model a zombie attack, using biological assumptions based on popular zombie movies. We introduce a basic model for zombie infection, determine equilibria and their stability, and illustrate the outcome with numerical solutions. We then refine the model to introduce a latent period of zombification, whereby humans are infected, but not infectious, before becoming undead. We then modify the model to include the effects of possible quarantine or a cure. Finally, we examine the impact of regular, impulsive reductions in the number of zombies and derive conditions under which eradication can occur. We show that only quick, aggressive attacks can stave off the doomsday scenario: the collapse of society as zombies overtake us all.
LINK: When Zombies Attack! (pdf)

This is a serious study of the consequences of a zombie outbreak. From Wikipedia:
According to a 2009 Carleton University and University of Ottawa epidemiological analysis, an outbreak of even Living Dead's slow zombies "is likely to lead to the collapse of civilization, unless it is dealt with quickly." Based on their mathematical modelling, the authors concluded that offensive strategies were much more reliable than quarantine strategies, due to various risks that can compromise a quarantine. They also found that discovering a cure would merely leave a few humans alive, since this would do little to slow the infection rate.

On a longer time scale, the researchers found that all humans end up turned or dead. This is because the main epidemiological risk of zombies, besides the difficulties of neutralizing them, is that their population just keeps increasing; generations of humans merely "surviving" still have a tendency to feed zombie populations, resulting in gross outnumbering. The researchers explain that their methods of modelling may be applicable to the spread of political views or diseases with dormant infection.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_apocalypse#cite_note-WhenZombies-12
 
I don't know if anyone has posted this, but I thought it might be helpful:
WHEN ZOMBIES ATTACK!: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF AN OUTBREAK OF ZOMBIE INFECTION

Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, Robert J. Smith

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University,
1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
Department of Mathematics, The University of Ottawa,
585 King Edward Ave, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa,
585 King Edward Ave, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5, Canada


Abstract

Zombies are a popular figure in pop culture/entertainment and they are usually portrayed as being brought about through an outbreak or epidemic. Consequently, we model a zombie attack, using biological assumptions based on popular zombie movies. We introduce a basic model for zombie infection, determine equilibria and their stability, and illustrate the outcome with numerical solutions. We then refine the model to introduce a latent period of zombification, whereby humans are infected, but not infectious, before becoming undead. We then modify the model to include the effects of possible quarantine or a cure. Finally, we examine the impact of regular, impulsive reductions in the number of zombies and derive conditions under which eradication can occur. We show that only quick, aggressive attacks can stave off the doomsday scenario: the collapse of society as zombies overtake us all.
LINK: When Zombies Attack! (pdf)

This is a serious study of the consequences of a zombie outbreak. From Wikipedia:
According to a 2009 Carleton University and University of Ottawa epidemiological analysis, an outbreak of even Living Dead's slow zombies "is likely to lead to the collapse of civilization, unless it is dealt with quickly." Based on their mathematical modelling, the authors concluded that offensive strategies were much more reliable than quarantine strategies, due to various risks that can compromise a quarantine. They also found that discovering a cure would merely leave a few humans alive, since this would do little to slow the infection rate.

On a longer time scale, the researchers found that all humans end up turned or dead. This is because the main epidemiological risk of zombies, besides the difficulties of neutralizing them, is that their population just keeps increasing; generations of humans merely "surviving" still have a tendency to feed zombie populations, resulting in gross outnumbering. The researchers explain that their methods of modelling may be applicable to the spread of political views or diseases with dormant infection.

i read that article a long time ago; it is true, all depende how fast governments controll the situation; avoid the spread of the infection at all cost
 
I read that article too. Certainly if the virus was like the one in 28DL civilisation would collapse quickly, given the speed the virus spreads. "Normal" zombie virus's have slower incubation periods, from a few hours to a day or two. In 28DL it is 10 - 20 seconds, so i could only imagine the chaos that would unfold with such an incubation period for the infection.

Also, any ideas on how the Russians defences can realisticly be penetrated by the infection ?
 
Also, any ideas on how the Russians defences can realisticly be penetrated by the infection ?

Birds and animals. Infected carriers (a la 28WL). Mass waves of infected meaning that it's likely some will get through, or close enough that infected body parts hit defending soldiers and infect them.

This scenario just gets uglier and uglier...
 
Birds and animals. Infected carriers (a la 28WL). Mass waves of infected meaning that it's likely some will get through, or close enough that infected body parts hit defending soldiers and infect them.

This scenario just gets uglier and uglier...

animals dont seem to be infected outside the chimpanzee/human families
 
I read that article too. Certainly if the virus was like the one in 28DL civilisation would collapse quickly, given the speed the virus spreads. "Normal" zombie virus's have slower incubation periods, from a few hours to a day or two. In 28DL it is 10 - 20 seconds, so i could only imagine the chaos that would unfold with such an incubation period for the infection.

Also, any ideas on how the Russians defences can realisticly be penetrated by the infection ?

Just one car driven by someone with an infected child trussed up in the back, or kept unconscious with sedatives. One bribe, or one sentry too tired to bother with the full search protocols and lets the sweet little girl keep sleeping. That's all it could take.
 
animals dont seem to be infected outside the chimpanzee/human families

Understood, I was talking about animals (domestic or wild) tearing apart corpses and carrying infected body parts/blood into "safe" areas. Once there they infecting the residents either by biting them or brushing against them and getting blood/fluids into cuts or mucous membranes.

99lives said:
Just one car driven by someone with an infected child trussed up in the back, or kept unconscious with sedatives. One bribe, or one sentry too tired to bother with the full search protocols and lets the sweet little girl keep sleeping. That's all it could take.

Exactly, and who knows how many times such a scenario will play out?
 
Understood, I was talking about animals (domestic or wild) tearing apart corpses and carrying infected body parts/blood into "safe" areas. Once there they infecting the residents either by biting them or brushing against them and getting blood/fluids into cuts or mucous membranes.



Exactly, and who knows how many times such a scenario will play out?

id imagine in both cases the military would step into action very fast...you gotta remember...theyve just watch first the entirety of the british isles get wiped out and now europe crumbling apart...its a good bet, lik i pointed out way earlier, that the military and civilian population would immediatly gun down anyone who got, came into, or even knew of any thing that crossed the line
its plague mentality...you destroy it at the source..ie: the carrier and everything protecting it, whether infected or no...

plus the liklyhood of the virus survivng jsut in speckles of blood in any animals mouths (dogs, birds and such are actualyl very riddled with their own diseases, which the virus would have to compete with) outside of a living host, is low to nil...most viruses (and from what weve seen we can include the rage virus) needs a living host or some sort of container, unless flash frozen, or itll die.
 
The night of 31 May was a quiet one for the most part, the flow of refugee's from Ukraine had almost entirely dried up, the Russian troops holding the line a few miles back felt a little more secure now. The virus seemed to be burning itself out in the unfortunate countries to the west.

One of the soldiers on guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Belgorod that night saw a pair of headlights approaching in the distance, the first vehicle to come from that direction since Ukraine had entirely collapsed. The handful of soldiers stopped the car as it approached, having managed to avoid the landmines along the border as it had raced out of the ruins of Ukraine. A family of four, mother, father, son, 6 years old and daughter 9 years old. The two kids in the back were asleep, the dad explained they had driven all the way from Kharkov, barely escaping with their lives as the police headquarters, the last safe zone in the city, fell.

As was the normal procedure, the soldiers asked the family to step out of the car and come to a medical tent, where they would be administered a blood test. The parents looked at eachother with worry, arousing suspisions from the soldiers, and the little girl began to gently stir in the back. The father frantically searched through a bag, saying he was looking for medication for his daughter, when he pulled out a needle, the writing on the side clearly said it was a sedative. Noticing that, the soldiers dragged the man from the car and detained him, unsure as to why he would be sedating one or both of his children. Perhaps if that sedative was administered in time, the soldiers and medical teams on sight would have had enough time to react, and death with the situation accordingly. As it stood though, they did not have time.

The girl began to become more aware as her sendative from a few hours earlier wore off. One of the soldiers reached in the back to comfort the girl and tell her its ok. As her eyes opened, the soldier noticed the familier red tint in the pupils. He had time to scream in agony as she brought her teeth down on his hand. The screams of pain turning to roars of anger. As his comrades realised in astounded horror what was happening, they too succumed, as he violently vomited blood on the faces of two of the soldiers standing next to eachother. The mother and father desperately tried in vain to rescue their little boy from the back seat, but the little girl had torn his throat open. He was beyond help, the grieve sticken parents too succumed to the infection as they tried to drag their dying son from the car, the daughter scratching at both of them.

By the time the alarm sounded, several people were already infected, but in the darkness telling who was infected and who wasn't was difficult. It spread fast, overwhelming the checkpoint rapidly, the soldiers on guard either fleeing or succuming to the infection. Sirens warbled through the town as news of the outbreak spread amongst the population.

T-72 tanks were rushing to the scene from a nearby army base, but by the time the reached Belogorod, much of the city was inundated with infection. Local police stations had been overrun, as had hospitals, schools and church's - areas designated as evacuation centres should an outbreak occur. There was little organisation, and as such, many of the evacuation centres either didnt open, didnt have sufficent guards or didnt have any guards whatsoever. It was a bloodbath.

About 200 miles to the south, the city of Rostov itself was facing an onslought of infected pouring across the southern Ukrainian border.

Across the world, people watched the spread of infection, wondering when, or if it could be stopped.
 
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again kinda convienent....

even in the unliklyhood theyd allow any mroe refugess to come rambling in, in the dead of night no less, they would have tonnes of people standing guard and full on lighting...
then, if they saw the sedative the father was trying to use, they wouldnt drag him out the car and detain him...they would open fire on all four in the car and burn the bodies...

in this world where a virus is turning ever human into a fanatic maniac hellbent on killing everyone it touches, there wouldnt eb lax security, or compassion for refugess, or anything of the like...itd be full military styled quarentines across the defense line

if it takes one person to do that damge, noone would even drop their guard...especially the russians....their used to having strong military borders remmber, so it wouldnt be easy for anyone trying to sneak in, let alone from a wasted europe


also its Rostov-on-Don, not Rostov....Rostov is behind Moscow
 
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again kinda convienent....

even in the unliklyhood theyd allow any mroe refugess to come rambling in, in the dead of night no less, they would have tonnes of people standing guard and full on lighting...
then, if they saw the sedative the father was trying to use, they wouldnt drag him out the car and detain him...they would open fire on all four in the car and burn the bodies...

in this world where a virus is turning ever human into a fanatic maniac hellbent on killing everyone it touches, there wouldnt eb lax security, or compassion for refugess, or anything of the like...itd be full military styled quarentines across the defense line

if it takes one person to do that damge, noone would even drop their guard...especially the russians....their used to having strong military borders remmber, so it wouldnt be easy for anyone trying to sneak in, let alone from a wasted europe


also its Rostov-on-Don, not Rostov....Rostov is behind Moscow

Much as I hate to nitpick I must agree. It's the RUSSIANS we're talking about here, after all. Even IOTL they were often called out for using excessive force. ITTL no force would be considered excessive, IMVHO, not when you're up against mindlessly crazed bloodthirsty maniacs. In fact, I won't be surprised if they blew up the car before it can reach the checkpoint, just to be sure.

Perhaps it is time to prepare for the Redeker Plan... :eek::cool::(

Marc A
 
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Much as I hate to nitpick I must agree. It's the RUSSIANS we're talking about here, after all. Even IOTL they were often called out for use excessive force. ITTL no force would be considered excessive, IMVHO, not when you're up against mindlessly crazed bloodthirsty maniacs. In fact, I won't be surprised if they blew up the car before it can reach the checkpoint, just to be sure.

Perhaps it is time to prepare for the Redeker Plan... :eek::cool::(

Marc A

yeah. this retcon needes a retcon
 
yeah. this retcon needes a retcon

I concur with everyone else. It's an entertaining story but really, the virus shouldn't have even made it to France in the first place. And even then, it's not like it would immediately spread all over the place. At the end of the day, even the infected are still human, with human limitations. I seriously doubt they could run tens of kilometers non-stop, for example.

I just try to pretend that 28 Weeks never happened.:p
 
Maybe you should concentrate on the effects on the non-infected world rather than keep the infection spreading!
 
Much as I hate to nitpick I must agree. It's the RUSSIANS we're talking about here, after all. Even IOTL they were often called out for using excessive force. ITTL no force would be considered excessive, IMVHO, not when you're up against mindlessly crazed bloodthirsty maniacs. In fact, I won't be surprised if they blew up the car before it can reach the checkpoint, just to be sure.

Perhaps it is time to prepare for the Redeker Plan... :eek::cool::(

Marc A

I must admit agreeing to this, I don't see the Soviets taking _any_ chances; just blow it up and to hell bothering to ask any questions...
 
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