21th century CSA

HI folks I wonder what a 21th Century CSA would look like, an America split between USA, CSA British Can and Mexico and possable Morman nation as well.


What are the stats of Blacks in CSA?,

Would there be a WW1 in this setting,


What would American Sourthen Culture be like?,

LW
 
I am not sure there would even be a CSA in the same form it took upon secession. It was a country based off of, and filled with politicians who were strong supporters of states rights versus the central government. With the precedent of secession having been set, it is likely that sooner or later, one state would decide to take it. There were signs of this emerging in OTL even when the war was still going on, with time it would only get worse. Especially because its economic prospects were nowhere near as bright as its northern counterpart, even if it did not cling onto slavery. Its also very possible that they could be defeated if there were another war with the USA, or even Mexico, seeing as they would have only won independence through a combination of luck and good military leadership.The CSA could have simply split into a collection of independent states, with some possibly being reabsorbed into the Union.

If it somehow survived all that, I think it wouldn't be regarded as anywhere near economically prosperous as the the USA or Canada. Mexico is probably the better comparison. Civil war or military dictatorship is not out of the question. As for slavery, they would likely cling on it for longer than most, if not all, other American countries, but eventually it would be forced to drop it under international pressure, probably in the late 19th or early 20th century, though you could see some kind of segregation system last for sometime after, perhaps ending around the same time as apartheid in South Africa.

When it comes to WW1, I take the view that some major European war was very likely after German unification, which I doubt a Confederate victory does anything to butterfly. It might not be recognizable to the war of OTL, fought in completely different ways with different countries on each side, but it would happen. Whether the USA and the CSA get roped in is more open to consideration. I would have my doubts that the CSA would allow itself to be entangled in a war with its vastly more powerful northern neighbour, though.
 
It is very questionable that CSA can win Civil War and surviving is even more difficult. It was politically and economically very dysfunctional nation.

But even if we suppose that it would survive, I think that some states will secede during Confederate Civil War and remain independence or re-join to United States. Slavery will be around probably to early 20th and is abolished due international pressure. And there is then strong segregation system which might last to end of 90's or early 2000's. And I don't think that CSA is able to expand. It is too weak and it probably scares United States too much. There will Great War but it might be very unrecognsible. And probably CSA is neutral.

So if CSA survive until 2016 it is far of great power level. It is probably economically and politically like Mexico if not worse. And racial relations is terrible. There is still much racism. CSA is probably too very backward, conservative and religious nation and probably quiet isolated.
 
I can't see an independent CSA in the 21st century being much more than a banana republic. It'd be nowhere near a great power.

There's always the prospect of a post-apartheid situation where southern blacks - those who haven't fled to the Union - ride international pressure and the support of domestic white allies to a massive overturning of the country's inevitable segregation laws and go on to form government a bunch of times, but racial tensions would always be there, hobbling the country.
 
I am not sure there would even be a CSA in the same form it took upon secession. It was a country based off of, and filled with politicians who were strong supporters of states rights versus the central government. With the precedent of secession having been set, it is likely that sooner or later, one state would decide to take it. There were signs of this emerging in OTL even when the war was still going on, with time it would only get worse. Especially because its economic prospects were nowhere near as bright as its northern counterpart, even if it did not cling onto slavery. Its also very possible that they could be defeated if there were another war with the USA, or even Mexico, seeing as they would have only won independence through a combination of luck and good military leadership.The CSA could have simply split into a collection of independent states, with some possibly being reabsorbed into the Union.

If it somehow survived all that, I think it wouldn't be regarded as anywhere near economically prosperous as the the USA or Canada. Mexico is probably the better comparison. Civil war or military dictatorship is not out of the question. As for slavery, they would likely cling on it for longer than most, if not all, other American countries, but eventually it would be forced to drop it under international pressure, probably in the late 19th or early 20th century, though you could see some kind of segregation system last for sometime after, perhaps ending around the same time as apartheid in South Africa.

When it comes to WW1, I take the view that some major European war was very likely after German unification, which I doubt a Confederate victory does anything to butterfly. It might not be recognizable to the war of OTL, fought in completely different ways with different countries on each side, but it would happen. Whether the USA and the CSA get roped in is more open to consideration. I would have my doubts that the CSA would allow itself to be entangled in a war with its vastly more powerful northern neighbour, though.

About right but slavery would probably last until at least early 20th to the mid 20th. It is hard to see how it could be banned before 1900 or so because too many CSA veterans and their sons would still be alive and would vote against any politician even hinting that he is in anyway sympathetic to giving into the "Abolitionist Horde" that they spent so much blood defeating.
 
Well it could like in Harry Turtledove's Southern Victory series, I've bin playing Mafia III and that's why I wanted to know what a 21th Century CSA would look like.


LW
 
In McKinley Cantor's "If the South Had Won the Civil War" you see Texas seceding not too long after the end of the war, and it includes OTL Oklahoma. A question is would Kentucky be in the CSA or USA. Other than Texas any states that secede would be complete basket cases, unless a state on a border chooses to go with the USA or in the case of Arkansas maybe with Texas. Given the very strong states rights constitution, you won't see the CSA make the kind of infrastructure investments it will need to industrialize until way later than elsewhere. Ending slavery, and the subsequent aprtheid like system will need to be forced on it by international pressure and even in 2016 you'll see blacks in a very second class situation de jure and de facto.
 
A lot can happen in 150 years. When and how they win plays a large part right out of the gate too. The south winning the Civil War is such a radical departure from OTL that it's tough to say how it would look today. Even saying how it would look in 1900 would be difficult.
 
I think Texas could probably survive on its own after seceding from the CSA. I wonder, though; the US will still probably want control over the inland trade routes from Louisiana. If the CSA fractures post-independence, would the US seek to regain that territory if nothing else?
 
I am not sure there would even be a CSA in the same form it took upon secession. It was a country based off of, and filled with politicians who were strong supporters of states rights versus the central government. With the precedent of secession having been set, it is likely that sooner or later, one state would decide to take it.

The early USA was based on the right of people to rebel against their government, and didn't immediately collapse because of the "bad precedent" the AWI set.

Plus, the CSA would always have to face the threat of a Northern reconquest effort, which would tend to keep the states united due to fear of their common enemy.
 
It was very hard for the CSA to gain independence in the first place, definitely. Once independence is achieved, though, they would do reasonably well for themselves. Not "CSA expands across the Caribbean in a fit of slavery expansion" well, but reasonably prosperous within their own borders.

Personally, I think that a lot of the "CSA is an inevitable banana republic" or "CSA will inevitably collapse" is due to understandable disgust at the idea of a prosperous slaving nation (or post-slavery apartheid-style nation). It's very hard to come up with descriptions of the state of the CSA which didn't equally apply to the revolutionary United States. Slavery? Check. Formed based on the right to rebel against the legitimate government? Check. Competing sectional interests? Check, in fact more so in the r-USA than the CSA. Etc, etc.

In fact, despite being supposedly pro-states rights and anti-taxation, it's notable that during the war that the CSA became much more centralised than the USA of the same period, and also instituted much higher taxes (which also helps dealing with the war debts afterwards, by the way). Much of the "states rights" rhetoric of state governors was really due to anti-Jefferson Davis views by people who, in the absence of a party system, had to turn to other arguments such as states rights to challenge Jefferson Davis.

The big question about the survival of an independent CSA is what the USA thinks of it. This is impossible to answer in detailed terms, since it depends on the scenario for how the CSA gains independence. But generally speaking, any scenario where the CSA gains independence is one where the USA has agreed to it at least once. Once the idea of separation takes hold, particularly if a generation or so passes, it makes outright reconquest improbable, though not necessarily U.S. interference in C.S. politics.
 
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