21st Century Soviets

Jlinker613

Banned
What if the soviet Union didn't collapse, but instead copied the China model. This Soviet Union would be friendlier to the United States, and would be forced to shrink from Superpower to Great power. The US would end up dealing with two rapidly growing market-Socialist countries rather than one, though Gorbachev's Soviet Union would be a bit more socially liberal.

In addition let's assume that:
A- Soviets reconcile with the PRC and establish friendly relations
B- Soviets don't allow intervention and allows Iraq to control Kuwait (keeping Iraq in the Soviet sphere)
C- China establish a sphere of influence with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan. US abandons Pakistan.
D- Al Gore wins in 2000
E- No 9/11 terrorist attacks
 
There's a TL where the Soviet Union adopts those reforms, called the Soviet Union Reborn(sorry, no link right now.) Suggest you go read it to see how that works out in the long run.
 
There are a number of problems with the idea of the Soviet Union adopting China's model. The first, and most important, is that the USSR did this, in the late 1950s. The USSR attempted to implement modern production methods—and succeeded in the military industry.

There are a number of problems with the USSR selling off social democracy wholesale, and rebuilding industry from scratch:

  • They had a large prior investment in industry
  • Their industrial proletariat was large, and vital to the national myth and politics (China's was small, and non-vital)
  • Social welfare was paid out of the factories
When the nomenklatura privatised these, there was no reason to maintain party rule: they went straight to personal private capitalism, rather than reforming state capitalism.

The mass and size of the USSR's industrial sector means that it is very much unlikely to do this. Also, the structure of European and US capitalism in the period (geared precisely to destroy the USSR in economic terms, or die trying) means that there isn't going to be large foreign direct investment. In the 1960s and 1970s the vast volume of consumer production and the impossibility of finding low cost high skill industrial labour meant that the West wasn't going to offshore these industries.

yours,
Sam R.
 
IMO the key is oil prices. Gorbachev's reforms were flawed, but the most serious problem was bad timing. In the 80s the price of oil crashed and the Soviet economy crashed with it. It's always a good idea to do reform when life is still good. The Soviets tried to build a roof in the middle of a thunder storm.

A much better time would be in the 1970s. Oil prices were soaring. It was the age of detente. US was weakened from Vietnam and the Soviets could reform from a position of strength. Instead they blew it. The oil wealth allowed the Soviets to entrench their problems in the long period of the Brezhnev rot.

If they were going to start their reforms in the Gorby years, they really needed to be hardline and resist political reform throughout the 90s. Wait long enough and oil prices will rise again, which is what made Putin look like a genius.

HistoricalInflationAdustedOilPricesChart.JPG
 
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