20th July plot succeeds?

[Curtain Jerker]

Many years ago I started a timeline (not here, it has never been published anywhere actually) of a wildly successful July 20 plot that leads to a seamless and mostly-peaceful transition of power from the Nazis to a government led by Rommel and a few others. Lots of handwavium later and the Germans somehow manage to last long enough vs the Allies and the USSR to survive. Europe becomes a tri-polar state - WAllies, Germany, and the USSR. Sooner or later WW3 breaks out.

I haven't posted it for two reasons: 1 - I'm not done and haven't worked on it in years and 2 - In order to give German a fighting chance I had to put my finger on the scale in such a way that it is barely plausible to anyone with a passing knowledge of the era. There are too many experts on WWII on this site who would look at it and be "yeah...no chance in hell is any of this possible" and they'd be right.

Anyway, tl;dr --> you need a lot to go right and even then the best case for the Germans is "fight like hell vs the USSR and surrender to the WAllies so more of Germany is under WAlly control as opposed to Stalin's control.

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

If the plotters and the military seize the government fairly quickly (which is not guaranteed), I have seen it suggested that, upon realizing that they are not going to get a conditional surrender or separate peace, they would likely give up on the Western front and retreat, allowing the Western Allies to advance largely unhindered. Meanwhile, they would continue to mount a strong resistance against the Soviet advance. The ultimate goal would be to surrender as little German territory as possible to postwar Soviet occupation. They could even exploit points of tension between the USSR and Western Allies - for instance, ceding much of Poland to the Polish Home Army to create a buffer between Germany and the Soviet Union.

(These ideas were originated by @Blackfox5 and compiled by @Strategos' Risk.)

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...t-wwii-because-of-valkyrie-government.324402/

I do not know how successful this plan is likely to be, but regardless of the postwar political division of Europe, it seems likely that a significantly larger portion of Pomerania and Silesia will stay ethnically German, leading to much fewer Germans fleeing or being expelled from territories east of the Oder-Neisse.

 

[jerseyguy]

The coup plotters opposed Hitler's conduct of the war on tactical and realpolitik grounds, the coup plotters were generally Prussian officers with no attachment to liberal democracy. Claus von Stauffenberg's opposition to Hitler is an important founding myth for today's Bundeswehr, but his political views were closer to Von Hindenburg and the Kapp Putsch plotters than the Bundesrepublik or the Weimar democrats.

A policy of Unconditional Surrender was in the works as early as the Casablanca conference in 1943, the July plot is too late to change this outcome. I doubt the Allies would accept a negotiated peace or an armistice considering the stabbed in the back myth's role in subverting democracy and the toxic influence of the military on civilian politics in Weimar Germany.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Unconditional surrender, the allies at the time didn't make a difference between Nazism and "Prussian militarism" which they blamed for starting both World Wars

I could see the Allies insisting on unconditional surrender, but I also could see the Allies offering some sort of minimal guarantees for the German population in general as to what kind of life they could expect afterward and what would be expected of them to make things right and what kinds of people would be facing justice for war crimes. The reward for the Allies in making such statements is the lives and treasure saved, occupations ended earlier, POWs returned earlier and the people dying every day in concentration camps saved, and it doesn't cost them much.

Everyone knows Germany is beat by July 20th 1944, I could see German military leadership surrendering with some sort of very minimal guarantees. They don't have much choice.

If the Allies insist on stated unconditional surrender, and harsh ideas are floated about what Germany's future is, I can see continued resistance but it would be very hard.

Germany is going to face almost immediate defection of its remaining Allies, is military Junta Germany going to crush things like the Polish uprising or Slovak uprising, or flip the Hungarian government when it tries to change sides. I bet even Croatia will try to get out. Mussolini will probably flee to Spain in an aircraft quickly before it ends. What will the military Junta do with the concentration camps, would it stop the killings and start feeding everybody decent rations, including all the Russian POWs and with what. Honestly a military Junta leadership can get it hands dirty really quickly if it continues to resist and won't want to do that.

Germany is done within a month regardless.

Good news for Poland, I can see the Home army uprising working, air fields seized and the parachute brigade + the exile government being flow in. Maybe they have a shot in avoiding communism.

Maybe the same kind of thing can happen in Prague.