20th Century Polish Great Power

Wonder if they got their naval wish list post WWI would help (or hinder) them...

I mean, for a while on paper they would have a fleet as befitting of a major power (sort of)...

Given the weakness of Poland's naval infrastructure, with Gdynia only beginning to develop as a port under firm Polish control in the decade of the 1920s, I would question whether Poland could support this naval force. Yes, it could make use of Danzig, but increasing the forces it stationed there would have consequences.
 
Poland could have evolved into a medium-sized power on the global scale with out communism or the second world war. It wouldn't be a superpower on the level of the US or the USSR, but it would be as influential as Iran, Germany, or a unified Korea today.
This is what happens in my EDC; Poland is a secondary power compared to Germany, but influential in the global stage and a very significant part of EuroFed.
Plus they're major players in aerospace (first sub-orbital flight) and computing.
 
Wonder if they got their naval wish list post WWI would help (or hinder) them...



I mean, for a while on paper they would have a fleet as befitting of a major power (sort of)...
Expensive and of limited usefulness.

So what is needed - for starters:

Less destruction during the WW1 and following wars. Preferably no Polish-Soviet War.
More land containing industry - so a bigger piece of Germany and Polish part of Cieszyn
A developed port so you don't have to pay for the construction of your own - IOW Polish Gdańsk
Access to foreign markets - either some intermarum thingy or ability to trade with Russia
Better economic policies, and generally better quality of political class. Definitely not the otl junta of incompetent colonels.
 
This is what happens in my EDC; Poland is a secondary power compared to Germany, but influential in the global stage and a very significant part of EuroFed.
Plus they're major players in aerospace (first sub-orbital flight) and computing.
The Polish cypher bureau and mathematics faculty are a great foundation for digital industry and aerospace engineering. Without WW2, many of the Israeli researchers and nobel winners of OTL might have been Polish citizens instead.
 
Expensive and of limited usefulness.

So what is needed - for starters:

Less destruction during the WW1 and following wars. Preferably no Polish-Soviet War.
More land containing industry - so a bigger piece of Germany and Polish part of Cieszyn
A developed port so you don't have to pay for the construction of your own - IOW Polish Gdańsk
Access to foreign markets - either some intermarum thingy or ability to trade with Russia
Better economic policies, and generally better quality of political class. Definitely not the otl junta of incompetent colonels.
The Polish Soviet War benefited Poland. It was in Warsaw's self interest to put as much distance between its industrial core (roughly a Krakow-Lwow-Lublin triangle) and the Soviet border. The strategic depth and Galician oil from Kresy was still a net benefit, even with Poland's Ukrainian and Belarusian minorities.
 

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The Polish Soviet War benefited Poland. It was in Warsaw's self interest to put as much distance between its industrial core (roughly a Krakow-Lwow-Lublin triangle) and the Soviet border. The strategic depth and Galician oil from Kresy was still a net benefit, even with Poland's Ukrainian and Belarusian minorities.
Landgrab good, but having soviets march twice over the half of your country bad :). The ideal situation would be getting that without fight and keeping good relationswith the eastern neighbor, whoever it might be
 
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Landgrab good, but having soviets march twice over the half of your country bad :). The ideal situation would be getting that without fight
The Polish Soviet war was a spillover from the Russian civil war. Even if Poland was willing to buy the land or something, no unified russian states existed to negotiate with them. Poland wanted Wilno and Lwow, the rest of the Ukrainian and Belarusian-majority areas were basically making the two "Polish cities" more defensible. Gay marriage and free elections in Saudi Arabia would also be ideal, but that doesn't make them any more likely to happen tomorrow.
 
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The Polish Soviet War benefited Poland. It was in Warsaw's self interest to put as much distance between its industrial core (roughly a Krakow-Lwow-Lublin triangle) and the Soviet border. The strategic depth and Galician oil from Kresy was still a net benefit, even with Poland's Ukrainian and Belarusian minorities.

I agree with the second half, but the Polish-Soviet war may also have given them that land at too high a price. Due to the lack of good bean counting in the region amongst all the chaos, it's hard to say exactly how damaging, but it was probably as damaging as WW1 before it. Taken together, the devastation was almost as bad as being occupied by a Polonophobic and anti-Semetic bunch of genocidal maniacs a generation later... This says something, I think.

Ideally, Poland really wanted to avoid fighting so much on its own heartland.

Wonder if they got their naval wish list post WWI would help (or hinder) them...

Were you the one who started the thread about Poland getting all their naval demands from both Germany and the Soviets? I thought that could be the basis of a very fun ATL, though I think the main impact of a large Polish fleet in the Baltic would be to get the Germans and Soviets to waste lots of steel building bigger fleets - but of course, that in itself could be tremendously beneficial.

I am not sure. Looking for instance here

http://krystyna-slany.pl/pub/Demographic situation in Poland in 1918.pdf

I see vital statistics--life expectancy, natural increase, fertility rate--which look pretty similar to those of contemporary Spain.

Interesting source. I'll have a read of it when I next have time!

How could Poland (and not an intermarium confederation) be a 20th century Great Power following its independence after WW1?

Yanno... I've always wondered if it would be possible for Communist Poland to be a great power. I don't see them ever overtaking the Soviets, but I have always thought it would make things very interesting if Poland had managed to become a second-rate great power during the Cold War.

fasquardon
 
The Polish cypher bureau and mathematics faculty are a great foundation for digital industry and aerospace engineering. Without WW2, many of the Israeli researchers and nobel winners of OTL might have been Polish citizens instead.
Exactly. There were quite a number of people in Poland who could have had a significant impact on science and technology. Given a generally better relationship with Germany (main victor of the Great War) and post Tsarist Russia initially, Poland could have become a very different nation.
 
I agree with the second half, but the Polish-Soviet war may also have given them that land at too high a price. Due to the lack of good bean counting in the region amongst all the chaos, it's hard to say exactly how damaging, but it was probably as damaging as WW1 before it. Taken together, the devastation was almost as bad as being occupied by a Polonophobic and anti-Semetic bunch of genocidal maniacs a generation later... This says something, I think.

Ideally, Poland really wanted to avoid fighting so much on its own heartland.



Were you the one who started the thread about Poland getting all their naval demands from both Germany and the Soviets? I thought that could be the basis of a very fun ATL, though I think the main impact of a large Polish fleet in the Baltic would be to get the Germans and Soviets to waste lots of steel building bigger fleets - but of course, that in itself could be tremendously beneficial.



Interesting source. I'll have a read of it when I next have time!



Yanno... I've always wondered if it would be possible for Communist Poland to be a great power. I don't see them ever overtaking the Soviets, but I have always thought it would make things very interesting if Poland had managed to become a second-rate great power during the Cold War.

fasquardon
There's several magnitudes of difference between a border war with 150,000 dead or wounded Polish soldiers and what amounted to a fourth Polish partition in which a fifth of the Polish Republics's 1939 population was killed and WW2 and Warsaw was destroyed. This is like comparing the Russo-Japanese war to Operation Barbarossa's damage.

The Poles actually gave up a considerable amount of territory at the treaty of Riga. Pilsudski, the head of state and commander in chief wanted a federalist, multinational Poland. The National Democrats (endecja) who controlled the parliament wanted a smaller, more ethnically homogenous Poland. When the elections had been held only Congress Poland, Western Galicia, and the former German territories were under Polish control so Endejca gained a disproportionate share of seats from the first election.

The Polish line of control was much farther east than the Treaty of Riga borders, but Endecja willing ceded Minsk and a large portions of central Ukraine to the USSR. The National Democrats aimed to limit their territorial gains based on the maximum population that could be forcibly assimilated/Polonized.

Poland's first Constitution was set up with a strong parliament and proportional representation designed to give Endecja more power, but Pilsudski was a Polish Charles de Gaulle who advocated a more Presidential system with a strong executive. No party had a parliamentary majority and the gridlock between feuding interests groups built up to the Sanacja coup in 1926.
 
There's several magnitudes of difference between a border war with 150,000 dead or wounded Polish soldiers and what amounted to a fourth Polish partition in which a fifth of the Polish Republics's 1939 population was killed and WW2 and Warsaw was destroyed. This is like comparing the Russo-Japanese war to Operation Barbarossa's damage.

The Poles actually gave up a considerable amount of territory at the treaty of Riga. Pilsudski, the head of state and commander in chief wanted a federalist, multinational Poland. The National Democrats (endecja) who controlled the parliament wanted a smaller, more ethnically homogenous Poland. When the elections had been held only Congress Poland, Western Galicia, and the former German territories were under Polish control so Endejca gained a disproportionate share of seats from the first election.

The Polish line of control was much farther east than the Treaty of Riga borders, but Endecja willing ceded Minsk and a large portions of central Ukraine to the USSR. The National Democrats aimed to limit their territorial gains based on the maximum population that could be forcibly assimilated/Polonized.

Poland's first Constitution was set up with a strong parliament and proportional representation designed to give Endecja more power, but Pilsudski was a Polish Charles de Gaulle who advocated a more Presidential system with a strong executive. No party had a parliamentary majority and the gridlock between feuding interests groups built up to the Sanacja coup in 1926.
ND was right here, there was literally nothing valuable even in these lands taken by Poland OTL
 
Exactly. There were quite a number of people in Poland who could have had a significant impact on science and technology. Given a generally better relationship with Germany (main victor of the Great War) and post Tsarist Russia initially, Poland could have become a very different nation.
When it came to people with any sort of special qualifications, Poland's situation was quite bad, and didn't particularly improve during the interwarperiod, as with anything else really.
 
Were you the one who started the thread about Poland getting all their naval demands from both Germany and the Soviets? I thought that could be the basis of a very fun ATL, though I think the main impact of a large Polish fleet in the Baltic would be to get the Germans and Soviets to waste lots of steel building bigger fleets - but of course, that in itself could be tremendously beneficial.

A Polish navy would always be a waste of time in timeline where they only own the corridor and have a hostile relationships with Germany, as the Germans can defeat such a navy on land. The best tactic of Poland would be to seek policies which wouldn't alienate the Germans of Poland, they would be the best ambassadors for a better relationships with Germany, which would weaken German parties and politicians seeking to retake the corridor. Poland embraced a policy toward Germany where they depended on France being able to save them from Germany, it should have been pretty obvious even without hindsight that this would not work as a long term solution.
 
-Budyonny dies during early part of Battle of Kiev, Poland gains control of much of Western Ukraine, Western Belarus, and Lithuania.
-Silesian Uprising also successful and welds Silesia to Poland
-Polonization is gentle and fear of much harsher repression from Germany or the USSR leads many to fight for Warsaw
-Without Silesia German rearmament is slower, without the Ukrainian breadbasket the Soviet famine is worse. Poland grows during this time and moves towards a Fascist state but never joins the Axis
-After World War II they gain Odessa, the balance of East Prussia, and much of Lithuania and emerges as an indepenent European (mid-tier) power
 
ND was right here, there was literally nothing valuable even in these lands taken by Poland OTL
Of course, it was probably the least economically developed area in Europe. It's not about the inherent value of the economy or natural resources, its a preventive conquest to keep out of someone else's hands.
Its's a similar logic to British colonial expansion. If it already controls a global empire, does one additional colony (Kuwait) really add much to the empire's net value? No. Does London want to keep it from falling into a competitor's control (a naval base for the Kaiser's high seas fleet or something) yes.
 
A Polish navy would always be a waste of time in timeline where they only own the corridor and have a hostile relationships with Germany, as the Germans can defeat such a navy on land. The best tactic of Poland would be to seek policies which wouldn't alienate the Germans of Poland, they would be the best ambassadors for a better relationships with Germany, which would weaken German parties and politicians seeking to retake the corridor. Poland embraced a policy toward Germany where they depended on France being able to save them from Germany, it should have been pretty obvious even without hindsight that this would not work as a long term solution.

This supposes that Germany wanted a good relationship with Poland between the wars. They didn't.

Poland is a soft target for a Germany smarting from defeat and an officer class concerned about left-wingers and pacifists winning the culture wars.

I'm not aware of any significant Weimar-era politician or party that had any serious interest in pursuing good relations with Poland. Do you know of ones I've missed?

There's several magnitudes of difference between a border war with 150,000 dead or wounded Polish soldiers and what amounted to a fourth Polish partition in which a fifth of the Polish Republics's 1939 population was killed and WW2 and Warsaw was destroyed. This is like comparing the Russo-Japanese war to Operation Barbarossa's damage.

And what about the civilian casualties? We'll probably never know what the exact figure was, but the estimates I've seen have been pretty high.

New sources on this are welcome though. ^_^

fasquardon
 
This supposes that Germany wanted a good relationship with Poland between the wars. They didn't.

Poland is a soft target for a Germany smarting from defeat and an officer class concerned about left-wingers and pacifists winning the culture wars.

I'm not aware of any significant Weimar-era politician or party that had any serious interest in pursuing good relations with Poland. Do you know of ones I've missed?



And what about the civilian casualties? We'll probably never know what the exact figure was, but the estimates I've seen have been pretty high.

New sources on this are welcome though. ^_^

fasquardon
You must be trolling, I doubt anyone interested enough in history to be posting here can be this misinformed.
 
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