20th Century Japanese Culture after Russian victory in Russo-Japanese War?

Thucydides

A lot of Japanese military culture, and most of their behavior in WW2, can be traced back to their startling victory in the Russo-Japanese War.

So, what if Japan were to decisively lose the Russo-Japanese War in 1905? At sea and on land, losing control of Korea and Manchuria. What would Japanese culture and attitudes toward the west be like after such a defeat? Would they become even more militaristic, or would people even go so far as to revolt? Discuss.
 

tonsofun

With a decisive defeat I can imagine the Japanese people having very low self esteem in themselves. Much like people did in China after the second Opium wars. Without such confidence I can imagine the militarists would get so much support.
With a decisive defeat there is even the prospect of Russian soldiers marching on Japanese lands. That might make the Japanese even more militaristic and out for revenge. It would be a good tool for nationalism if it did happen. The second opium war serves such purpose in China now.
But without occupation I can imagine Japan looking for a western ally to help reform its armed forces. But that would come at a price though.
 

Blackfox5

While defeat would discredit those responsible, it might not discredit militarism. The world zeitgeist in 1905 was still very pro-expansionism.

I expect there would be lots of examination of what went wrong and drastic military reforms. It would also prompt the Japanese to refirm their military alliances in order to better safeguard the home islands.

It could lead to strengthening of democratic reforms and increased accountability to parliament, but only if the root causes of the defeat lie in the poor accountability of the military to the Diet.

I don't see a pacifist Japan. Japan still needs a strong navy and army with a powerful Russia. I don't necessarily see a Japan that is anti-West, but anti-Russia could be a defining factor as Japan would seek to avenge a humiliating loss. Japan might see a strong China as being a necessary bulwark against Russia.

It's likely that if things develop as they did IOTL and the Russia Civil War happens, that Japan will quickly move in to reoccupy Korea (or support an "independent" Korea that is pro-Japanese) and expel Russian influence from Manchuria as an anti-Bolshevik containment measure.

However, with potentially stronger constitutional measures, you may not have the Japanese army unilaterally provoking "incidents" in China all throughout the 1930s.

I think a lot depends on what caused the war to be so decisively lost, and what the reforms were that implemented afterwards.
 

Palomnik

The first effect would be a lot of VERY pissed off Japanese people. Even IOTL, there were riots across Japan at the terms of the Treaty of Portsmouth: the partition of Sakhalin and the lack of Russian indemnities being the main points of contention. A loss would be even more ruinous for Japan, and one would likely see mass rioting by disillusioned supporters of the military, AND protests stage managed by trade unions and student associations.

I don't know that it would discredit militarism or expansionism though, especially if politicians are available to take the blame. It would make future prime ministers and generals more cautious, to be sure, but expansionism in Imperial Japan had different motivations at different times.
The first phase, in the late 19th Century, was mostly strategic and defensive: to secure Korea (the "dagger pointed at the heart of Japan") and Taiwan.
The second phase, from about 1895-1924, was motivated by primitive capitalist expansion and acquisition.
The final phase, from 1931 onwards, was more than anything ideologically based.

The latter of these was never much stayed by practical considerations, and was driven by the para-fascist Imperial Way faction in the IJA. If there's still a Great Depression in this timeline, this will be unaffected. If there's enough of an economic and cultural crisis from the loss of the Russo-Japanese War, militaristic government may even come earlier.
 
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