Friday, December 30th, 2022
International elections to watch in 2023
After a chaotic presidential election cycle, Americans might be forgiven for not wanting to think about elections for a little while. But there are several important elections taking place this year that could affect American foreign policy during the next four years and beyond.
Here are eight nations with elections that Americans should pay attention to in 2023:
The withdrawal from the Golan Heights has done quite a number on the agreement between nationalist and religious parties that have dominated Israeli politics for the last few decades, a partnership already greatly damaged by the Ankara Agreement that removed both Palestine and the Holy City of Jerusalem from under Israeli control. While polling seems to indicate Doron and Likud will remain the largest party after voters pick the new Knesset on March 28, it will remain to be seen if a new government can be formed with the "national camp" seemingly split between the secular nationalists who have grudgingly accepted the post-Ankara status quo and the religious Zionists who want Israeli control over the entire Holy Land.
The polls are not looking good for Italian Prime Minister Nicola Savino and his center-left alliance. While the prime minister's Democratic Party is in contention to remain the largest party after the next elections (due on or before May 13, 2023), the grouping of center-right parties opposing the government look likely to take a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The nearly nine years in opposition has greatly shifted the dynamics of right-wing politics in Italy, with the controversial Luca Silvestri of the socially conservative and populist right-wing Lega Nord ("Northern League") tentatively set to be the coalition's candidate for prime minister over a candidate of the center-right Forza Italia ("Forward Italy").
Brazilians will head to the polls on June 4, 2023 to elect a successor to the country's president, Francisco Fernandes Caxias. Caxias, one of the oldest world leaders at 81 years of age, has stated he will not run for re-election. Given Caxias' very low approval ratings (only 17 percent of Brazilians approve of his performance as president) and Brazil's fractious political environment, it is unlikely that a new president will win a majority in the first round. It is likely that a run-off on June 25th will be required to see the direction the second-largest democracy in the Western Hemisphere takes.
Secretary-General Renata Barrica will not serve a third term as head of the United Nations, and has openly advocated for her successor to come from one of three regions (Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America) that have not had at least two secretaries-general hail from that part of the world. Straw polls between members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are likely to begin in July and run through October. Besides the impetus for the post to move away from Asia and Western Europe, a prospective candidate will also need to be acceptable to all five permanent UNSC members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom & United States), all of whom hold a veto over who will lead the international body.
Five of Canada's ten provinces will have provincial elections next year, with the country's second-largest province of Quebec being the one with the largest potential to affect the United States. The French-speaking province is due for new elections on October 2nd, 2023, and it may be the first provincial election in decades where the issue of Quebec separatism from Canada may not be a major factor. The opposition Coalition Avénir Quebec (CAQ, "Quebec Future Coalition"), which is tying or leading the federalist Liberal government in polls, has stated its preference to remain in Canada while devolving more power to Quebec, while the main separatist party, the Parti Québécois (PQ, "Quebec Party"), has been riven with in-fighting since it fell from power in 2019.
The other half of the "Special Relationship" will head to the polls for the first general election since the death of Queen Elizabeth II by October 16th, 2023. Prime Minister Michael Duggan will face British voters for the first time since becoming prime minister in 2021, and is hoping to lead his Conservative Party to a fourth consecutive election victory. Current polls show the opposition Labour Party, led by Jack Coll, holding a narrow lead in the polls, but thanks to an increase of support for the nationalist Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland, traditionally a Labour stronghold, polling currently shows neither party taking a majority of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.
Should this occur, it would be the first hung parliament since 2004, and likely require of one or more of the UK's smaller parties, including the SNP, Liberal Democrats, the right-wing, populist National Peoples' Party to provide their support to keep the new government in power.
The five-year terms of members of the lower house of the French legislature, the National Assembly, expire in November 2023. President Benoit Martin's Socialist Party and its allies currently hold a majority of seats, but polls show a very divided race among the center-left coalition headed by the Socialists, center-right parties and the far-right National Front, whose leader Christine Leveque made to the run-off against Martin in the 2021 presidential race.
France's two-round system of elections means that this may be the first election since the return of single-member districts for legislative elections in 1988 that a party or coalition fails to win a majority. In which case, this might be the first French parliament in decades where a president has felt it necessary or advantageous to call an early snap election.
Voters in New Zealand will likely be asked to vote on their new government well before the last legal election date of January 2024. Prime Minister Kylie Brownlee will attempt to be the third consecutive prime minister to lead their party to three electoral victories, having confirmed her plan to lead her center-left Labour Party into the next election. In contrast to her party defying the odds and winning a majority of seats in parliament under New Zealand's system of proportional representation, polling shows that both Labour and the center-right National Party are neck-and-neck for the lead in a divided field.