Wednesday, August 24, 2022
Special Feature: Congressional Retirements (updated)
The last of the big battles between redistricted incumbent representatives took place yesterday, ending with the upset victory of Julia Dreyer (D-NY) over Nate Petrelli (D-NY), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee for the upper Manhattan district the two were drawn into.
While four states (Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island) still have yet to vote in non-presidential primaries, none of the incumbents running for re-election in those states are facing serious challengers for their party's nomination.
With that in mind, we here at NBS feel confident to publish the (most likely final) update of our list of congressional retirements. As a reminder to our readers, this will be the first cycle where representatives are elected from maps drawn as a result of the 2020 Census, which will be in effect for the next ten years. As a result, many entries regarding retiring or defeated incumbent members of the House of Representatives may include information on new districts that will replace or partially replace the district they currently represent, which were drawn as a result of the 2010 Census.
Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here are each of the 57 members of Congress who are not seeking re-election, or who have lost their primaries.
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Senate
AL: Alan Garland (R) (in office since 2010) — One Congress as chair of the Senate Budget Committee is all that Garland will get. The 74 year-old announced he's hanging up his spurs rather than run again, a decision undoubtedly helped along from undergoing another operation last May to remove melanoma from his skin.
CA: Gabe Tillman (D) (in office since 2018) — President Seaborn's replacement in the Senate, "the Democrat's Democrat" is gracefully bowing out rather than stand in the way of term-limited governor Abbie Heilemann (D)'s senatorial ambitions. Heilemann easily won the Democratic nomination and thus will be the next senator from California, while Tillman has expressed an interest in returning to political commentary.
ID: Clark Gibson (R) (in office since 1981) — Gibson is the head of the powerful Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, but he's perhaps better known in political junkie circles for his grievance over how the Senate determines seniority. The second-most senior senator will retire after 40 years in the Senate, and almost certainly succeeded by Governor David Arkin (R).
IL: Jasper Irving (R) (in office since 2017) — The conservative-cum-moderate senator from Illinois passed up a tough re-election fight to instead run for the presidency. He ended up coming in second to Alan Duke, and Republicans have all but announced that they have given up on holding this seat without him.
KS: Sam Wilkinson (R) (in office since 1981) — President
pro tempore and chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee is a pretty good place to end a distinguished Senate career and that’s where Wilkinson finds himself. The president
pro tem is 85 years old, and is retiring rather than seeking an eighth term in office.
MI: Randall Thomas (R) (in office since 1999) — Thomas has spent his congressional career frustrating Democrats that they have been unable to take his seat, despite Michigan consistently leaning Democratic. Michigan will miss his leadership of the Senate Finance Committee, even if voters in the state picks someone outside his party to succeed him.
OK: Robert Roanoke (R) (in office since 1987) — After six terms being a good friend to the beef industry, Pentagon and voters in his state, Robert Roanoke is retiring. The chair of the Senate Indigenous Affairs Committee plans to return home to his ranch while former governor Lawrence Martin (R) is set to be the state’s next senator.
SD: Robin Fulton (R) (in office since 2003) — Fulton's announcement that he had been diagnosed with stage II pancreatic cancer led to an outpouring of support from the entire Senate and from voters in his home state. It is very unlikely that he will live long enough to see the end of his successor's term in 2029.
House of Representatives
AL-01: Jim Doldier (R) (in office since 2011) — Garland's retirement will cause at least one shake-up in Alabama's House delegation, with Doldier giving up his Mobile-based seat to try for the Senate. Like with the open Senate seat, the winner of the Republican primary (in this case, state representative Matt Averhoff) will be the new incumbent come January.
AZ-08: Troy Foster (R) (in office since 2013) — With term-limited governor Scott Phillips (R) is running neck and neck with Antonio Rodrigues (D) for the state's Senate seat, Foster gave up his safe seat to try to become Arizona's next governor.
CA-10: Skip Sullivan (R) (in office since 2021) — Redistricting moved Sullivan into the 13th district alongside Will Durham (R). The freshman (perhaps wisely) decided not to take on a big fish in the increasingly small pond of California Republicans and is heading back to local politics.
CA-22: Kyle Sebastian (R) (in office since 2019) — Sebastian's congressional career was cut short by his thumping in a primary against fellow incumbent Winchester Collins (R) after he was redistricted into the 20th district. The new 22nd will almost certainly be represented by Trent Gorman (D), the current representative of the Golden State's 21st district.
CA-30: Randy Celeste (G) (in office since 2011) — Celeste, who switched parties to the Greens in 2021, chose to try to become the party's presidential nominee rather than try to retain his seat under his new affiliation. He lost at the convention, and the district that Celeste would represent under the new maps (the new 32nd district) will probably go to Democratic nominee T.J. Conover by a 2:1 margin over his opponents.
CA-35: Landon Carmen (D) (in office since 2003) — The old general is ending his political career after two decades, and will make room for a new Democratic leader on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee. Pushing through legislation to give aid to veterans suffering symptoms related to burn pit exposure was a fitting capstone to a long and distinguished public career.
CA-47: Alvin Coates (D) (in office since 2013) — Coates is yet another casualty of California's redistricting. He and Megan McKeena (current representative for the 40th district) were redistricted into the new 42nd district and McKeena won a tough primary to win the nomination for the dark blue seat.
CA-49: Alton Moore (R) (in office since 1999) — Moore opted to try a very long-shot run for president rather than face a redistricting and likely a tough re-election fight. To no one’s surprise, he got almost no support and dropped out very quickly. Democrats are very motivated to take this seat, as Moore was one of the first sitting Republican elected officials to endorse Alan Duke.
CA-52: Peter Herger (R) (in office since 1985) — The Chair of the House Small Business Committee is retiring, much to the relief of C-SPAN camera operators, one of whom his droning famously put to sleep during a long session in 2008. Redistricting reportedly played a factor in accelerating the 77 year-old's plans for retirement, since he would have had to run in the new, very Democratic 50th district.
FL-05: Len Segal (D) (in office since 2001) — Republicans in Florida’s legislature managed to crack Segal's Jacksonville district and so the former FBI agent is handing in his metaphorical gun and badge. The new 5th will almost certainly be represented by current 4th district representative Francis Kilner (R) in January.
FL-20: Lewis Grant (D) (in office since 2019) — Grant lost a very close primary last night to fellow incumbent Selina Draper (D) after the two were put into the new 22nd district. The dean of Florida's delegation, Jeff Johnson (D), will take over the new 20th.
GA-11: Dominic Rudig (R) (in office since 1995) — Rudig is packing it in after 14 terms after drawing yet another right-wing primary opponent whose sole point of contention was Rudig's pro-choice stance.
HI-02: Evelyn Bindo (D) (in office since 2005) — The "jokester of the House" is taking the opportunity of her district getting new boundaries to retire. Bindo is 83 and had a big impact on making sure her protege Michelle Takei won this deep-blue seat’s Democratic primary.
IL-11: Joyce Pearce (D) (in office since 2013) — Pearce is trying to make the move up to the Senate to replace Jasper Irving (R) (
see above). Illinois Democrats turned her safe Democratic district into one that only leans Democratic in the state's redistricting, so Democratic nominee Jim Hinojosa will have to fight harder than Pearce did to hold this seat.
IL-12: James Newhouse (D) (in office since 1991) — Redistricting has turned the 12th from one that only leans Republican to one that's solidly Republican. That means that Newhouse is calling it quits after two decades in Congress and handing his seat over to the likely GOP nominee, 15th district representative Marvin Troughton.
IL-15: Ray Riggleman (R) (in office since 2001) — The new district lines in Illinois moved 13th district representative Bill Delmon into the 15th. Since Delmon is one of the best House Republicans (outside of party leadership) at bringing in donor cash, it's no wonder Riggleman was persuaded to stand aside to prevent a bruising primary in this deep-red district.
IL-17: Gene Kramer (D) (in office since 1987) — It will be hard for Democrats to match Kramer's success in downstate Illinois. Kramer, who heads Democrats on the House Education and Workforce Committee, seems to be calling it after gutting out two tough re-election in 2018 and 2020. The district's new configuration has made it a swing seat.
IA-03: Kevin Nix (R) (in office since 2011) — Iowa Republicans have been itching to unseat Governor James Edwards (D) for four years, and Nix is the strongest candidate so far willing to try and unseat him.
KS-04: Curt Judd (R) (in office since 2013) — Judd gave up his seat to succeed Sam Wilkinson (R) in the Senate (
see above). State representative Kirk Brewer (R) will definitely hold down this very Republican district.
MI-02: Jim Norton (R) (in office since 1993) — Norton’s time as the dean of Michigan's delegation will end in January after he lost his attempt for a 16th term after being redistricted. Freshman Peter Mouw (R) outflanked him from the right and won the GOP primary, which is tantamount to election in this Republican district.
MI-11: Gerald Somerfield (R) (in office since 2003) — Two decades will have to do it for Somerfield, who announced his retirement after his district was redistricted both to become a Democratic one and include current 9th district representative Andrew Travis (D). Travis is all set to hold onto this seat at least until the next bout of redistricting.
MN-02: Leif Erikson (R) (in office since 1987) — Perhaps the closest we'll ever get in Congress to a real-life viking from Minnesota, Erikson hasn't had a serious contest in decades. But his age is catching up with him: his beard is now gray, and he's had open-heart surgery twice in the past five years. This district could go either way next year without him, and would be a crucial seat that Democrats will need to take to regain the House.
MN-07: Thom Grunder (D) (in office since 1973) — Fifty years in Congress will be enough for the Dean of the House and ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee. Republicans have long been targeting his district (currently it is the most Republican seat held by a Democrat), and it's as good as theirs without Grunder to compete against. When Grunder goes, the House will lose its last member to take office in the 1970s.
MO-08: Allan Blant (R) (in office since 1996) — The dean of Missouri's congressional delegation has decided to retire and let someone else represent southeastern Missouri. The person who will replace him will be state representative Nick Brown, who won the GOP primary, which is tantamount to election in a district that Henry Shallick won by 30 percent four years ago.
MT-AL: Alan Price (D) (in office since 2011) — Big Sky Country is getting a second congressional district again, three decades after losing it after the 1990 Census. The district boundaries were unkind to Price, who was drawn into the very Republican second district that makes up the central and eastern parts of the state instead of the Missoula-based first district. Instead, Price is running to unseat Monty Fisher (R) as governor.
NV-02: Hank Wallace (R) (in office since 1981) — Wallace is the most senior Republican in the House and the only one remaining to have taken office before Ronald Reagan's inauguration. Nothing better exemplifies Wallace's longevity than the fact that he was the last person to represent Nevada's at-large district before it was abolished in 1983, and now the state has four congressional districts.
NV-03: Matt Acklan (R) (in office since 2019) — With Acklan abandoning his seat to take on Matthew Spencer (D) for the state's Senate seat, the race for the 3rd's representative has turned into a slugging contest that mirrors the Senate race. This seat will be a good barometer of how successful the RNC is at patching up the divide between Duke and Long voters.
NJ-11: Jack Fowler (R) (in office since 2009) — The Great White Hope of the New Jersey GOP saw the way the wind was blowing after his district was made into one that was five points more Democratic than the nation and decided to bail. Without him, the GOP has essentially given up on the seat and former federal prosecutor Becca Hedberg (D) will almost certainly take over for Fowler next year.
NY-12: Nate Petrelli (D) (in office since 2007) — It might be a bit ironic that the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee lost perhaps the most brutal and expensive House primary this cycle yesterday. People will be studying how Julia Dreyer (D) came out on top, despite Petrelli's higher national profile and edge in fundraising for years. While Dreyer will remain in the House, Petrelli's name is already being whispered for various positions in a second Seaborn administration.
NY-19: Del Roberts (R) (in office since 2011) — Roberts has stepped up to try to unseat Governor Hakeem El-Amin. It's a long shot, and Roberts' scant record of accomplishments in Congress is unlikely to persuade blue-state voters to take a chance on him.
NY-23: Frank Whitley (R) (in office since 2003) — With his position as chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and deal-making credentials, Whitley could represent his district until he dies. But he's honoring his pledge to make his tenth term his last. His decision also avoided a potentially nasty primary with fellow Rep. Jim Cutter (R), who was moved into the 23rd as a result of redistricting.
NC-09: David Epps (R) (in office since 2009) — North Carolina's new 13th district managed to pack three Republican congressman into one district: Epps, John M. Porter and current representative Tommy Ray Mitchell. Epps has already announced that he will resign from Congress to accept teaching position at Davidson College effective September 1st. The new 9th district encompasses all of Charlotte, which means 12th district incumbent Aaron Bonds (D) will have no problem holding onto his new seat.
OH-07: Bob Paccioretti (R) (in office since 2020) — To little surprise, Paccioretti lost his attempt to hold onto the 7th after being grouped into the same district as current 16th district representative Joseph Steele (R). Several watchdog groups have raised questions about the Steele campaign's financial dealings, but that doesn't seem like it will negatively affect Steele's likely victory in November.
OH-09: Josie Bail (D) (in office since 2003) — The Democratic Caucus Chair is trying to become the Buckeye State's seventh governor to have served non-consecutive terms. The "Snake by the Lake" is considered one of the ugliest gerrymanders in the nation, and Bail's successor will get a nicer, much more Republican-friendly, district map to hang in their office.
OH-13: Roger Matthews (D) (in office since 2011) — Matthews was the biggest congressional victim of Ohio losing a House seat as a result of the Census. Ohio Republicans took the opportunity to obliterate his swing seat base and plop him instead in the deep red 6th district. Rather than fight a losing battle, Matthews instead is taking on Ruth Norton-Stewart in her Senate race.
PA-03: Arthur Cornforth (D) (in office since 1995) — "Comrade Arthur" is retiring ahead of his 80th birthday, and not a moment to soon. He was already expected to be dumped as the leading Democrat on the House Administration Committee over his statements expressing admiration for Lenin, Trotsky and Fidel Castro, and had several challengers announce primary bids when he decided to say
do svidaniya. The majority-black district, one of the most Democratic in the nation, will be represented by Philadelphia city councilor Art Chennault in January.
PA-10: Chris Franklin (R) (in office since 1987) — A self-described "Rockefeller Republican", Franklin is a member of a dying breed of Republican politician that was briefly reinvigorated by Arnold Vinick in 2006. His retirement has put this seat into play, although the GOP still holds a slight edge.
PA-12: Kevin Huxley (R) (in office since 2019) — Redistricting put Huxley into the 9th district alongside fellow sophomore Ben Sizemore (R), and Sizemore came out on top in the subsequent GOP primary. The new 12th will be moved to cover most of Pittsburgh, and will most likely be won by Samantha Kennedy (D) whose 18th district covering largely the same area was eliminated as a result of the Census.
SC-06: Grant Spencer (D) (in office since 2001) — Spencer's luck finally ran out this June, when he lost a primary to former city councilor Mike Dixon. It didn't help Spencer that he accumulated nearly a half-dozen marriages since he took office in 2001 (not including the four marriages he had ended before then), and his constituents seemed to finally tire of the constant drama involving his messy finances and personal life.
SD-AL: Tony Sutton (R) (in office since 2020) — Sutton gave up his House seat to succeed Robin Fulton (R) (
see above) in the Senate. He will not have to worry about either the Senate race now that he has won the GOP nomination, nor his seat, as the Democrats couldn't get anyone to stand as a sacrificial lamb against state senator Jeff Wanner (R). Wanner still has to dispatch a Libertarian candidate, but for all intents and purposes, the race is already over.
TN-04: Walter Peterson (R) (in office since 2011) — Terrance Klein (D) is undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent governor up for re-election in this election cycle. The Volunteer State is deeply Republican and Peterson is hoping that the state's natural partisan lean will overcome Klein's solid approval ratings.
TN-05: Ted Helton (D) (in office since 2019) — Helton is taking an early out after Tennessee Republicans successfully pushed through new congressional maps that cracked Nashville into two Republican districts. With only one solidly Democratic district left in the state (the 9th district, which covers Memphis), a far cry from the Tennessee Democrats' previous dominance of the state delegation as late as the 1980s.
TX-04: John Hancock (R) (in office since 1997) — The congressman who shares his name with the famous Founding Father, Hancock is hanging up his spurs after a quarter-century in Congress. Texas' redistricting has stretched this district from northeastern Texas into the Dallas suburbs, but it's still going to be filled by a Republican when Hancock departs.
TX-07: Ralph Ellis (R) (in office since 2011) — Ellis' seat is one of the two that Texas Republicans sacrificed in the state's redistricting to shore up other GOP seats. The new seventh is very Democratic, nothing like the swing seat that Ellis is leaving behind.
TX-29: Tim Fields (D) (in office since 1991) — Fields could have been either Speaker of the House or Governor of Texas, but the superior caucus campaign of Mark Sellner and a bribery scandal derailed his hopes of career advancement. His successor will be a Democrat and almost certainly a Hispanic one at that.
TX-32: Lewis Simpson (R) (in office since 2021) — Simpson will only get the one term in Congress, as the new 32nd is now very Democratic. It's also majority-minority, which likely mollifies some Texas Democrats who were concerned about state Republicans' attempts to remove the possibility of any more seats turning blue or purple as Texas continues its demographic shift.
WV-03: Charles Hacker (R) (in office since 1989) — The third district is going to be eliminated after this year, and Hacker is leaving with it. The dean of West Virginia's congressional delegation, Hacker is one of four current representatives who switched parties while in office (in his case, to the GOP after being elected as a Democrat).
WI-03: Drake Headley (D) (in office since 2001) — The powerful ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee is giving up his seat to challenge Senator James Clarke (R). Without the popular incumbent, the GOP has the best shot in years of taking this seat, and both parties have already committed tremendous resources to organizing in the district.
HONORABLE MENTION
DC-AL: Martha Vickers (D) (in office since 1991) — The grand lady of DC politics was diagnosed with Alzheimer's last year and will end her political career after spending four decades in elected office. The District of Columbia is so Democratic that Republicans often don't bother running candidates here, and the next non-voting delegate for the nation's capital will be the Democratic nominee, former mayor Chuck Mitchell.