Long leads in Texas as Duke falls to 25% nationwide in first post-rally poll
Monday, August 1, 2022
Independent candidate Andrew Long has leapt to a lead in his home state of Texas as the first polls immediately taken after his primetime rally show him coming close to tying Republican nominee Alan Duke.
NBS/YouGov polling shows Long holding a comfortable lead in Texas, while Duke has reached the lowest share by a major-party nominee in nearly three decades with only 25% of likely voters saying they plan on voting for him for president. Long's selection of former Indiana governor Emily Rudden, and endorsements from several other prominent current and former Republican politicians have given him a substantial "convention bounce", with a good portion of the votes coming from swing voters.
President Sam Seaborn (D) still holds a decisive 17 percentage-point lead over Duke, and thanks to Long's surge, is projected to win the electoral college comfortably thanks to three large southern states (Florida, Georgia and North Carolina) being projected for him since the last poll while only losing one small state (Maine) thanks to Long's surge. The scale of the split among Republican and Republican-leaning voters is evidenced by the projected electoral map, with Duke losing all but three electoral votes (from the nation's least-populous state of Wyoming) from the previous projection and falling to third behind Seaborn and Long (who is currently projected to win Texas' 40 electoral votes). Should Long hold his lead in the Lone Star State until Election Day, he will be the first third-party presidential candidate to win a state since George Wallace in 1968.
A new feature of NBS' coverage within 100 days of the election is that we will be looking closer at six states that will most likely determine who will be the next president: Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. These six are our "states to watch", and will be periodically updated alongside our projected electoral map.
Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 42% (-6)
Duke (R): 25% (-3)
Long (I): 20% (+8)
Buckner: 4% (+1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)
States to Watch
Arizona
Seaborn (D): 36%
Duke (R): 29%
Long (I): 20%
Buckner (G): 5%
Undecided: 10%
Florida
Seaborn (D): 43%
Duke (R): 28%
Long (I): 17%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%
Ohio
Seaborn (D): 37%
Duke (R): 29%
Long (I): 21%
Buckner (G): 4%
Undecided: 9%
Pennsylvania
Seaborn (D): 44%
Duke (R): 26%
Long (I): 18%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%
Texas
Long (I): 40%
Duke (R): 25%
Seaborn (D): 23%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%
Wisconsin
Seaborn (D): 37%
Duke (R): 24%
Long (I): 21%
Buckner (G): 8%
Undecided: 10%
Projected Electoral Map
Seaborn (D): 334 (+58) electoral votes
Long (I): 40 (+40) electoral votes
Duke (R): 3 (-78) electoral votes
Toss-up: 161 (-20) electoral votes
Changes
Alabama (9 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Arkansas (6 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Florida (30 EV): Toss-Up to
Seaborn
Georgia (16 EV): Toss-Up to
Seaborn
Idaho (4 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Kansas (6 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Kentucky (8 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Louisiana (8 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Maine (4 EV): Seaborn to
Toss-Up
Mississippi (6 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Nebraska (5 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
North Carolina (16 EV): Toss-Up to
Seaborn
North Dakota (3 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Oklahoma (7 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
South Dakota (3 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Tennessee (11 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
Texas (40 EV): Toss-Up to
Long
Utah (6 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up
West Virginia (4 EV): Duke to
Toss-Up