NBS Election HQ: In first forecast, Seaborn projected to win majority in Electoral College
Monday, June 20th, 2022
NBS Election HQ's first forecast of the state of the presidential race has President Sam Seaborn (D) projected to take a majority in the Electoral College even if he were to lose every remaining swing state race.
Our first projection, based on polling, demographic modelling and previous election results, projects that Seaborn will take at least 276 electoral votes, five more than he would need to secure a majority in the Electoral College. Republican presumptive nominee Alan Duke, who trails Seaborn by 16 percentage points in the latest NBS/YouGov poll, is projected to carry a minimum of 81 electoral votes. The remaining 181 electoral votes, distributed among 12 states ranging in size from Alaska (with only three electoral votes) to Texas (with 40), could be won by either major-party candidate.
The state of the race is unsurprising given Duke's low approval ratings (only 33 percent of voters hold a favorable opinion of Duke compared to 54 percent who hold a favorable opinion of Seaborn) and the presence of independent candidate Andrew Long, who is openly courting Republican and Republican-leaning voters disaffected by Duke's polarizing statements and policy proposals. Long's presence is especially felt in his home state of Texas, where his presence could potentially tip the state to Seaborn, who would be the first northern Democrat to win the state since 1968.
Seaborn is currently projected to hold onto every state he won four years ago and pick up the state of New Mexico, which went for Henry Shallick by fewer than 500 votes. All 12 states that are considered to be toss-ups were won by Shallick in 2018, with two (Ohio and Florida) being states that Jimmy Fitzsimmons carried in 2014.
Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 47% (±0)
Duke (R): 31% (+3)
Long (I): 7% (-1)
Green: 5% (-1)
Undecided: 10% (-1)
Projected Election Map
Seaborn (D): 276 electoral votes
Duke (R): 81 electoral votes
Toss-up: 181 electoral votes