2018 Presidential Election

[Marky Bunny]

Thursday May 5th, 2022

The BBC, like other broadcasters, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while the polls are open on Thursday for elections in Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland.

The BBC is required by electoral law to adopt a code of practice, ensuring fairness between candidates, and that is particularly important on polling day.

The code of practice is contained in more detailed election guidelines which are written and published for each election, and they include guidance about polling day.

The BBC does not report on any of the election campaigns until polls close at 22:00 BST on TV, radio or bbc.co.uk, or on social media and other channels.

However, online sites do not have to remove archived reports, including, for instance, programmes on iPlayer. Any lists of candidates and the guide to parties' policies remain available online during polling day.

Polls are open until 22:00 BST on Thursday with results expected over the next two days.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Saturday May 7th, 2022

Eames elected London Mayor

Labour's Dominic Eames has won the London Mayoral election, beating Conservative Clive Hurst.

He won 55% of the popular vote to Mr Hurst's 45% after entering a run-off when neither managed to secure a majority in the first round of voting. On the first preference vote Eames secured 39.1% of the vote, with Hurst on 36.1%. Liberal Democrat President Damian Nicholas came third with 8.78% of the vote, with Martin Abbott for the Socialist Alliance and Andy Field both saving their deposits with 5.16% and 5.11% of the vote respectively. The Green's Rosie Owens failed to save her deposit poling 4.74% but that makes her the best performing Green party candidate for mayor, beating the 2.6% of James Davision twenty years ago. Baron Hard-up for the Happy Sunshine, Lets Have a Party,Party & Fancy Dress Party Alliance achieved his stated aim of polling above 1%, which he did getting 1.06%.

Analysis​

Dominic Eames team got panicky on polling day when voting was slow, and fears that 2018 was repeating itself. In fact turnout - though not at 2018 levels was still a healthy 48.78%. Then there were jitters on the first day of counting when the margin between Eames and Hurst was narrow on the first boroughs announced. They suffered the shock of Hurst actually flipping a borough on the first preference votes, that of Redbridge, but there was a sigh of relief when Eames took Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow, Merton and Wandsworth all borough's carried by Nigel Jay in 2018.​

But this was no Eames coronation. In the end Mr Hurst's performance exceeded expectations and utterly defied the grim predictions of numerous polls. Not bad either, given how little resources he appears to have had from a Tory HQ that was focused elsewhere.

 

[Marky Bunny]

London Mayoral Wiki box

(With thanks to @lord caedus)

 

[lord caedus]

Campaign oversight reveals Democratic VP candidates under discussion

Saturday, May 7th, 2022

The Seaborn presidential campaign appears to have inadvertently revealed who has made the first cut for the party's vice presidential nomination by the public release of line-item details of campaign purchasing of over a dozen Internet domain names involving various Democratic politicians. First noted in The Washington Post, a detailed list of domain purchases, apparently meant to be used for in-house record-keeping, was accidentally appended to documents given to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Digital copies of Seaborn campaign filings, including the accidental list of purchased domain names, is now publicly viewable on the FEC's website.

Political campaigns at the presidential level often purchase Internet domain names to redirect to the site of their preferred candidate. Former president Glen Allen Walken's campaign, for example, bought almost a dozen websites ("glenwalken.com" and "presidentwalken.com", for example) to redirect to his campaign website, an unusual amount for presidential candidates explained by Walken's prominent use of his middle name and status as a former acting president.

Campaign spokeswoman Annabeth Schott confirmed the list was released in error, but did not offer comments on specific candidates whose names were revealed by the domain purchases.

In alphabetical order, the 15 candidates the campaign appears to have advanced beyond the initial stage of discussions include:

Gov. Elizabeth Bartlet (NH)
Sen. Kurt Carner (MT)
Gov. Jarrod Daniels (MN)
Sen. Alicia DeSantos (FL)
Gov. Will Diego (NM)
Gov. Kelly Hoffman (NJ)
Sen. Andrew Howard (WA)
Sen. Dante Jenkins (NJ)
Sen. Ben Newell (CO)
Secretary of the Treasury Meredith Payne (MI)
Sen. Becky Reeseman (MI)
Sen. Rudi Robinson (IN)
Ambassador to the UN Paris Stray (ME)
Sen. Louise Thornton (VA)
former Gov. Bobby Tyler (VA)
​

The list reveals a focus on diversity, with six women under consideration and six people of color (including two women of color). Perhaps fitting a campaign that has consciously focused on finding a running mate acceptable to the broader Democratic Party after the selection of Franklin Hollis in 2018, only two candidates from inside the administration are apparently being vetted for taking the number two position.

 

[RRusso1982]

Seriously, the Seaborn campaign cannot keep making amateurish mistakes like this, with what is at stake in this election, and what the alternative is. I thought they would have learned after 2018. They had better get their act together, and get it together like yesterday. That said, any of these candidates would be a viable number 2 on the ticket and a viable heir apparent in 2026.

 

[ajm8888]

I am starting to worry Sam is a one term wonder.

 

[RRusso1982]

I am starting to worry Sam is a one term wonder.

I hope not. I don't think so though. They deliberately created Duke to be a very unlikeable character. Lord Caedus even admitted that. I am pretty sure there is not one person who follows this thread that wants to see Duke win. Duke winning would alienate just about every person who follows this thread. People will just stop following the thread. I really want to see Duke absolutely annihilated. We have had 4 close elections in a row. We are due for a big win. The first in 20 years. Mark even said that everything that happened on this thread from the last two years of Santos through the Walken years was basically the buildup to President Seaborn. In 2018 he barely won with no coat tails and wound up with a Republican Vice President after a contingent election. It would be nice to see him be able to claim a mandate this time. I want the only suspense on Election night to be how big the landslide is and does Duke drag down enough Republicans to cost them control of Congress.

There is another reason I want to see Duke trounced than I can't stand him. I am actually a moderate Republican. I guess a Vinick Republican. I think that result would be better for the Republican Party in the long term. If Duke God forbid wins, or even narrowly loses, he will be emboldened. And more candidates like him will be emboldened. As will his supporters. If he gets trounced, and trounced in a way he or his supporters cannot spin, and a lot of Republicans who supported him lose too, it is easier for the Republican Party to pick up the pieces and move forward.

All that said, this leaking of the VP list is probably not a huge deal in reality. Definately not a gamechanger. Probably a two or three day story. But it is not very reassuring. Seaborn barely won in spite of all the mistakes he and his campaign made in 2018. I had really thought and hoped that he and his campaign had learned their lesson and as the incumbent he had a good team, and they were going to buckle down and focus and take it seriously and do what they needed to do. Now what do they do? They accidently leak the list of potential running mates. I worry that after this, there will be another mistake. And another. And another.

 

[ajm8888]

I hope not. I don't think so though. They deliberately created Duke to be a very unlikeable character. Lord Caedus even admitted that. I am pretty sure there is not one person who follows this thread that wants to see Duke win. Duke winning would alienate just about every person who follows this thread. People will just stop following the thread. I really want to see Duke absolutely annihilated. We have had 4 close elections in a row. We are due for a big win. The first in 20 years. Mark even said that everything that happened on this thread from the last two years of Santos through the Walken years was basically the buildup to President Seaborn. In 2018 he barely won with no coat tails and wound up with a Republican Vice President after a contingent election. It would be nice to see him be able to claim a mandate this time. I want the only suspense on Election night to be how big the landslide is and does Duke drag down enough Republicans to cost them control of Congress.

There is another reason I want to see Duke trounced than I can't stand him. I am actually a moderate Republican. I guess a Vinick Republican. I think that result would be better for the Republican Party in the long term. If Duke God forbid wins, or even narrowly loses, he will be emboldened. And more candidates like him will be emboldened. As will his supporters. If he gets trounced, and trounced in a way he or his supporters cannot spin, and a lot of Republicans who supported him lose too, it is easier for the Republican Party to pick up the pieces and move forward.

All that said, this leaking of the VP list is probably not a huge deal in reality. Definately not a gamechanger. Probably a two or three day story. But it is not very reassuring. Seaborn barely won in spite of all the mistakes he and his campaign made in 2018. I had really thought and hoped that he and his campaign had learned their lesson and as the incumbent he had a good team, and they were going to buckle down and focus and take it seriously and do what they needed to do. Now what do they do? They accidently leak the list of potential running mates. I worry that after this, there will be another mistake. And another. And another.

How is Sam gonna get a landslide? He hasn't really done anything that is too landslide worthy. Modern politics of this world and our own really don't allow for landslides like 1984 Reagan V Mondale anymore. It is likely to be 330s to 360s if it is a big win. if it is a close win slightly above 270 to 310 at the highest.

If it is not a close election it will likely be 320s to 360s. Too early to predict what the surprises will be.

But if it is not a clear cut victory, if it is another narrow victory, Duke's supporters are gonna be around for awhile and we'll see them claim that Duke won and maybe voting machine irregularities made Seaborn win in their eyes. Within a day we'll see a dozen conspiracies online claiming how Seaborn stole the election. Of those 12, one or two will become prominent in the conspiracy world.

 

[RRusso1982]

How is Sam gonna get a landslide? He hasn't really done anything that is too landslide worthy. Modern politics of this world and our own really don't allow for landslides like 1984 Reagan V Mondale anymore. It is likely to be 330s to 360s if it is a big win. if it is a close win slightly above 270 to 310 at the highest.

If it is not a close election it will likely be 320s to 360s. Too early to predict what the surprises will be.

But if it is not a clear cut victory, if it is another narrow victory, Duke's supporters are gonna be around for awhile and we'll see them claim that Duke won and maybe voting machine irregularities made Seaborn win in their eyes. Within a day we'll see a dozen conspiracies online claiming how Seaborn stole the election. Of those 12, one or two will become prominent in the conspiracy world

Seaborn has been a decent President. And landslides can happen if one side nominates a really awful and preposterous candidate. And when there is a third party candidate splitting the Republican vote.

 

[mspence]

Elizabeth Bartlett? Sorry that smacks of cronyism and borderline nepotism.

 

[Bad'Wolf]

How is Sam gonna get a landslide?

Landslides are possible even for unpopular candidates, if the opposing candidate is even more unpopular. Look no further than Emmanuel Macron's recent reelection in France. And the electoral college and popular vote often reflected two very different trends

 

[RRusso1982]

Elizabeth Bartlett? Sorry that smacks of cronyism and borderline nepotism.

I agree. She is not the best choice. Maybe a cabinet position during the second term, but not VP.

 

[lord caedus]

Got some down time, so here are some Senate lists. By my count, we've only got six left after this.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Lists of United States Senators (1985-present)
AL • AK • AZ • AR • CA • CO • CT • DE • FL • GA • HI • ID • IL • IN • IA • KS • KY • LA • ME • MD • MA • MI • MN • MS • MO • MT • NE • NV • NH • NJ • NM • NY • NC • ND • OH • OK • OR • PA • RI • SC • SD • TN • TX • UT • VT • VA • WA • WV • WI • WY
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States Senators from Indiana​

Class 1
1977-1995: Jacob Arneson (Republican)
Elections: 1976, 1982, 1988
1995-2013: Rob O'Rourke (Republican)
Elections: 1994, 2000, 2006
2013-2025: Rudi Robinson (Democratic)
Elections: 2012, 2018

Class 3
1981-2005: James Crossfield (Republican)
Elections: 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998
2005-2011: Martin Warren (Democratic)
Elections: 2004
2011-2017: Damon Matteo (Democratic)
Elections: 2010
2017-2023: Gibson Carluke (Republican)
Elections: 2016

Spoiler: Indiana

No, not that Rob O'Rourke. Robinson, of course, ran for president in 2018 as the candidate representing the closest thing ITTL to the anti-establishment progressive wing of the Democratic Party. He's also an Hall of Fame basketball player who is widely regarded as the best player to ever wear an Indiana Pacers jersey, which is probably why he's able to win statewide elections in Indiana despite being a giant black man espousing dangerous left-wing ideas like universal health care or sensible gun control.

Sadly, the nation's brightest vice president ever is butterflied away in favor of an ATL stand-in. Martin unexpectedly chose not to run for re-election and didn't really convince anyone of the reason why, but he stepped down and Matteo took over. Carluke unseated him by a very small margin, but Matteo got the consolation prize of administrator for the Small Business Administration in the Seaborn administration.

United States Senators from Missouri​

Class 1
1977-1987: Bobby Lohrbacher (Democratic)
Elections: 1976, 1982
1987-2001: Milton Armitage (Republican)
Elections: 1988, 1994
2001-2011: Ron Fox (Republican)
Elections: 2000, 2006
2011-2013: Lewis Henderson (Republican)
2013-2019: Josh Copenhaver (Democratic)
Elections: 2012
2019-2025: Lewis Henderson (Republican)
Elections: 2018

Class 3
1968-1987: Thomas Eagleton (Democratic)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980
1987-1993: Lorraine Underhill (Democratic)
Elections: 1986
1993-1999: Lucas Foley (Republican)
Elections: 1992
1999-2011: Ken Oliom (Democratic)
Elections: 1998, 2004
2011-2023: Laura Shallick (Republican)
Elections: 2010, 2016

Spoiler: Missouri

Lorbacher resigned in 1987 after becoming Ambassador to Portugal under Newman (although he continued to serve in the role under Lassiter until 1995), and Armitage was appointed to replace him. Armitage served two terms of his own before retiring. Fox was the first choice of President-elect Walken to head the Department of Education, but was met with unanimous opposition from both parties. Fox resigned his Senate seat shortly afterwards, citing the stress of the whole fiasco. Then-governor Henry Shallick appointed Henderson as the new senator, but people in Missouri at the time viewed Henderson as a clear Walken stooge and felt that was bad. So Henderson lost the GOP nomination and then Democrats took the seat. In 2018, with the doors closing on the Walken era, Missourians decided they liked having a Walken stooge in the Senate after all and brought Henderson back.

As is familiar by now, Eagleton assumed office early after his predecessor resigned to give him a boost in seniority. Eagleton probably is most famous IOTL & ITTL for being the first running mate of George McGovern in 1972 who was dropped from the ticket once it was revealed he had been institutionalized for depression and treated with electroshock therapy. Foley had a single forgettable Senate term before becoming governor of Missouri from 2013 to 2021 & getting on Alan Duke's radar for a possible running mate. Oliom was unseated by Laura Shallick, who conveniently was also the First Lady of Missouri at the time. Her husband, of course, was the GOP nominee for president in 2018 and came pretty close to winning it all...which would have been kind all kinds of awkward with the nation's First Lady also simultaneously in the Senate. Imagine how weird that would be. Anyways, she's also been floated for Duke's VP spot.

United States Senators from Oregon​

Class 2
1985-1997: Lyndon Bullich (Democratic)
Elections: 1984, 1990
1997-2015: Ricky Rafferty (Democratic)
Elections: 1996, 2002, 2008
2015-2027: Curtis Ryan (Republican)
Elections: 2014, 2020

Class 3
1969-1987: Bob Packwood (Republican)
Elections: 1968, 1974, 1980
1987-2023: Robert Greys (Democratic)
Elections: 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, 2016

Spoiler: Oregon

Rafferty ran for the Democratic Party nomination in 2006 as an outspoken and confrontational liberal. She retained her Senate seat after losing, but was defeated by Ryan in 2014 in part because questions were raised about her residence in Oregon. That led her to go off the deep end, attending an anti-police protest where she led a chant for "dead cops", then joining the Socialist Party when she lost the Democratic primary for Oregon governor later that year and releasing a completely unhinged platform that included things like firing every white male heterosexual in state government and banning all non-vegan products in the state within five years. (Because it's Oregon, 15% of voters still chose her over two boring and visibly sane mainstream candidates). Curtis Ryan of course is the OR GOP's non-Walter Collins golden boy who was considered for the VP spot in 2018 and is on Duke's radar for 2022.

Bob Packwood IOTL left office in 1995 one step ahead of being expelled for multiple accounts of sexual abuse, sexual assault and for attempting to destroy his diary entries that confirmed those allegations. Let's say *here*, Packwood's ways are exposed earlier and Robert Greys unseats him in 1986. Greys is the second-most senior Democrat in the Senate and is running for a seventh term this year.

 

[WestWingNut]

Because it's Oregon, 15% of voters still chose her over two boring and visibly sane mainstream candidates).

It's statements like this that remind me that Oregon is the same state that tried to blow up a dead whale carcass with TNT to try and incinerate it. Since that happened in 1970, I imagine that still happened ITTL.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Full London Mayoral Election result spreadsheet

 

[Marky Bunny]

Monday May 9th, 2022

Mixed picture in local elections as both Conservatives and Labour lose Councillors, but gain councils
NPP and Lib Dems make gains

It was a mixed picture for both the major parties in the English local elections held on Thursday. Labour won the most seats with 2,387 to the Tories 1,177, although for Labour that was a small net lose of 101 overall, with the Tories losing net 187.

Labour gained controlled of eight councils, with the Conservatives taking control of five, the Liberal Democrats two (although they won two of the new authorities in Somerset and Westmorland). The NPP could be described as the biggest winners of the night taking control of eight councils, plus making a net gain of 219 Councillors overall. The NPP took overall control in Burnley and Hartlepool, whilst their biggest win came taking Hull from Labour. In Essex they took control of Basildon, Castle Point, Southend and Thurrock all from the Conservatives.

The NPP's leader Charles Thaw fighting his first set of elections since becoming leader last May said " We’re Britain’s fastest growing political party and we are showing we can win across the country from Burnley to Hartlepool, to Hull to Essex, as well as gaining seats in Portsmouth, Plymouth, Southampton, Slough and Swindon. I think a key factor is our success is that, like most of our fellow countrymen and women, the NPP is patriotic. We don’t think the country is perfect but we like our country, are proud of it's achievements, and fed up of the many in the political class rubbishing those achievements, and putting us down".

 

[heatmaster]

Campaign oversight reveals Democratic VP candidates under discussion

Saturday, May 7th, 2022

The Seaborn presidential campaign appears to have inadvertently revealed who has made the first cut for the party's vice presidential nomination by the public release of line-item details of campaign purchasing of over a dozen Internet domain names involving various Democratic politicians. First noted in The Washington Post, a detailed list of domain purchases, apparently meant to be used for in-house record-keeping, was accidentally appended to documents given to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Digital copies of Seaborn campaign filings, including the accidental list of purchased domain names, is now publicly viewable on the FEC's website.

Political campaigns at the presidential level often purchase Internet domain names to redirect to the site of their preferred candidate. Former president Glen Allen Walken's campaign, for example, bought almost a dozen websites ("glenwalken.com" and "presidentwalken.com", for example) to redirect to his campaign website, an unusual amount for presidential candidates explained by Walken's prominent use of his middle name and status as a former acting president.

Campaign spokeswoman Annabeth Schott confirmed the list was released in error, but did not offer comments on specific candidates whose names were revealed by the domain purchases.

In alphabetical order, the 15 candidates the campaign appears to have advanced beyond the initial stage of discussions include:

Gov. Elizabeth Bartlet (NH)
Sen. Kurt Carner (MT)
Gov. Jarrod Daniels (MN)
Sen. Alicia DeSantos (FL)
Gov. Will Diego (NM)
Gov. Kelly Hoffman (NJ)
Sen. Andrew Howard (WA)
Sen. Dante Jenkins (NJ)
Sen. Ben Newell (CO)
Secretary of the Treasury Meredith Payne (MI)
Sen. Becky Reeseman (MI)
Sen. Rudi Robinson (IN)
Ambassador to the UN Paris Stray (ME)
Sen. Louise Thornton (VA)
former Gov. Bobby Tyler (VA)
​

The list reveals a focus on diversity, with six women under consideration and six people of color (including two women of color). Perhaps fitting a campaign that has consciously focused on finding a running mate acceptable to the broader Democratic Party after the selection of Franklin Hollis in 2018, only two candidates from inside the administration are apparently being vetted for taking the number two position.

Well I see that both Payne and Thornton have made the cut! I can imagine that Payne, geographical, gender and race, make her perfect fit! So does Thornton, both women offer there own individual strengths. I have an idea that Alicia DeSantos might being considered, due geography and her Hispanic background.

 

[RRusso1982]

I was surprised Thorn didn't make the cut.

 

[heatmaster]

I was surprised Thorn didn't make the cut.

Seaborn and Thorn don't like each other and besides Thorn doesn't bring anything to the table.

 

[RRusso1982]

Maybe the Seaborn campaign leaking the VP list is not such a big deal. Almost all these names were speculated to be on the list anyway, and there are no surprises or out of left field names. These are all pretty much safe picks. All low risk. But the campaign really has run a tighter ship and be careful about mistakes like this.